Gold leans more to the Bearish side / Fed rate decision tomorrow

Gold's general commentary: Despite Friday’s session strong response to #1,792.80, Gold failed to maintain those High levels and was rejected on the Daily chart’s Resistance zone. Yet, it still found Support on the Daily chart’s bottom of the Lower High zone, which remains Bullish and has High potential to contain current Bearish pullback. Factors that may break the Support: #1) Bond Yields Bought back already made losses but still didn’t found the Resistance #2) Inflation is still on High levels which can make Investors move their capital on Yields / also the Hourly 4 chart on Gold has been Overbought for some time #3) Bond Yields are still the main correlation and their Volatility can wipe out Short-term Traders from from the market, as every Lower Low extension is Bought back within #1 session from April #8. Unless Gold Trade sideways for at least #1 - #3 sessions, Daily chart Rectangle will always pressure for a #1,760.80 test with the #1,800.80 psychological barrier as an upper variance, which is enough reason for me to pursue lower Targets if #1,770.80 breaks. Personally, as long as #1,800.80 Resistance holds, I remain Neutral/Bearish on Short-term and preserving my Bearish outlook on Gold. For now I see no decent opportunity on a horizon, nothing worth a risk. I will approach with extreme care and I will only engage promising setups (firm Resistance/Support break backed by Bond Yields confirmation). Therefore, I will Buy only if #1,792.80 breaks (and Yields in Lower Low zone) and Sell only on #1,770.80 break (with Yields above the Resistance), and keep close track on Bond Yields chart, as momentum can shift on Hourly basis regarding the Yields.


Technical analysis: As expected the only viable Trade on the Short-term was #1,770.80 breakout, and this was once more confirmed throughout yesterday's session within my #1,770.80 - #1,778.80 range (Xau-Usd numbers), where Gold pierced the Support once again, and with traditional Volatility on Bond Yields (changing perspective on Hourly basis), reversed again near the Short-term Resistance. Current configuration is only suitable for Scalpers. On the more Longer-term though it appears as if the Daily chart’s #1,792.80 is acting as a Resistance, rejecting any upside break-out since early April (in fact also rejected the Price-action just few sessions ago). As with the Hourly 4 chart, Price-action is Trading within a healthy Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart, as the Hourly 1 chart is also Neutral / once current configuration picks a side, that will be in my opinion the new trend (most likely, I will have more with Wednesday’s candle on the Fed aftermath). Current Technical opening was invalidated since Bond Yields broken Hourly 1 chart Support, which Bought back the Support break on Gold, counterbalancing fair Technical value which should be around #1,740.80 already. I am expecting Short-term swing towards #1,800.80 psychological barrier (all depends on the rate decision), and possible rejection can deliver #100 point movement downwards. In both cases, I am expecting #1,678.80 on Medium-term, maximum till end of the May. Today's and tomorrow's session (before the rate decision) will most likely be idle without surprises.