goldenBear88

Keeping my Selling order / moved my Stop-loss on entry

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: The Resistance broke throughout Friday's session but shortly after Gold rebounded and is currently within the (former) #1,792.80 - #1,800.80 Resistance zone fractal. The Hourly 4 chart was at it’s Highest since pressure point on more than #4 occasions since June #27 as Daily chart’s Neutral values are well preserved, able to convert to Bearish. These are negative signs for the Medium-term Buyers but as discussed last week, the market has turned to Fundamentals again for direction as Bond Yields are on Top of my importance list. Failure to deliver a supportive sentiment may panic the Yields more and Gold may suffer double the effect as DX continues to gain in value with Investors using it as safe-haven (note that this was similar to what happened in February and early March on virus outbreak). If Gold holds yesterday's High’s it can pierce the #1,752.80 on the aftermath, otherwise look to re-Sell near #1,818.80 Resistance. It is important to keep in mind that Gold is an Channel Up on Hourly 4 chart and #1,818.80 can be ultimate Top and rejection point.


Technical analysis: Gold erased last Month losses and is marginally near the #1,800.80 psychological barrier on the Hourly 4 chart as, despite the mini recovery candles on Yields, DX was one of the winners of positive U.S. Trade deal environment and general relief on the markets. Technically, Daily chart should from Neutral to Bearish as I still don’t see recovery continuation on Gold. If U.S. session opening Bell don’t disappoint (Negative or Neutral Gold’s opening) and delivers what I am expecting, there is good possibility for #25 point Intra-day dip as U.S. session approaches. If that’s the case, I will carefully wait for opportunity to add more Selling orders. Regarding Technical developments - I see no space for further Buying and can’t speculate until when these Swings will last - but Gold will, as always follow the cycles and main pointer of a possible Bearish leg is Gold near Resistance levels and much needed Daily chart’s #1,792.80 test. It is not wise move to engage a position before this week’s Fundamentals, but my analysis always filters such events and whatever the outcome is, I will position myself on Medium-term calling for #1,752.80 extension. Regarding Technical developments - I see no space for further Buying and can’t speculate until when these Swings will last - but Gold will, as always follow the cycles and main pointer of a possible Bearish leg is Gold near Resistance levels and much needed Daily chart’s #1,752.80 test. Statistically, from March #27, when Gold tests the Resistance #4 or more times and get’s rejected - #5th rejection results as an aggressive decline on the aftermath. I expect aggressive decline towards my Target within #2 sessions. If #1,800.80 and #1,792.80 gets broken, my estimations show even #1,752.80.


My position: I have engaged my Selling order on July #9 (entry of #1,814.80) and I am still holding it, with my Stop-loss almost touched with Friday's session High of #1,812.80, which was #2 points from my #1,814.80 Stop-loss. Price-action got rejected and is Trading under Selling pressure, which made me move my Stop-loss on breakeven to prevent another Resistance test which may endanger my capital. If #1,792.80 gets preserved, I will not expect much from today's session, but if it does, Gold can be under strong Selling pressure on the aftermath. However, if Yields continue the downtrend, Gold could be under strong Buying pressure as I cannot rule out another #1,812.80 - #1,815.80 Resistance belt test Intra-day.

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