goldenBear88

Gold's Intra-day recovery strongly limited and near exhaustion

Short
TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
Gold's general commentary: The Fed announced that the Rate will remain unchanged (as expected) and as a result, Bond Yields printed Bullish Gap fill (which was instantly Sold) with Support break extension Gold. Current developments on DX surprisingly added Buying pressure on Gold and printed Bullish Daily chart's engulfing candle, but I doubt that it will last. Taking all Technical aspects in consideration, #1,792.80 - #1,795.80 is Daily Top and from there (if happens/chances are slim for Buying continuation), I expect Price-action to change it’s course and aggressive Bearish correction on Lower levels near #1,776.80 (my entry point). It is no coincidence that since the E.U. opening the Price-action has been consolidating within #1,780’s range since Gold is mainly correlated with Bond Yields these sessions. This is a critical level as it represents the Higher Low on the Daily chart which is unbroken since November #30 - and will not break without a significant reason, that’s why I won’t make a strategy shift. Gold will sooner or later reach my Targets since the underlying trend remains Bearish. Purely on a Technical perspective, Gold should ease off the Fundamental pressure and test my entry point within #1 session (as Fundamental dust eases) and would be realistic outlook with the aggressive Bear run towards my Targets.


Technical analysis: The Hourly 4 chart's Descending Channel was broken upwards throughout yesterday's session and as despite the very (Bearish for Gold) Fed's hawkish stance, DX managed to lose more. Gold should be heavily pressured also by Bond Yields which seems to be finding a Support on Daily chart as well as the Usd-Jpy pair. As Buying is strongly limited, I expect Buying pressure to ease off slowly and prepare the terrain for Selling sequence so Gold can continue with Bearish trend. Buying currently is very dangerous as Fundamental rises can be altered anytime, and also Buying on Selling trend is not a clever idea. Daily chart is now slightly Oversold and on High Volatility, so Traders should take those into account. I remain heavily Bearish, expecting #1,727.80 in extension. Anything beyond that is pure speculation.


Conclusion: Personally, I am surprised that Gold is Trading under Buying pressure after such Bearish (prior to Gold) Fed's outcome. However, announcement matches pretty well with my expectations, where current recovery is due DX taking strong hammering, but surely Buying is strongly limited. I will comfortably remain on sidelines, waiting for Buying pressure to ease and once Price-action gets near my entry point of (#1,776.80), I will make my move. I have no urge to be with a position as I will firstly wait for area to be engulfed, since I am more than satisfied with my results. Everything is set for multi-Month Bearish cycle on Gold.

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