U.S. Yields Sell-off / Gold bound to deliver one more Lower Low

Gold's general commentary: The Price-action is now below the #1,750.80 Resistance gaining Selling momentum as the DX is Trading on a small recovery, as expected. Gold is approaching again the Lower Low’s trendline of the Daily chart’s wide Channel Down, slightly near the MA’s on Hourly 4 chart, which could be a messenger of a Bearish continuation. Buyer’s efforts and commitment is once again left unrewarded. It would be best for Short-term Traders with smaller margin to wait for area to be engulfed, as this is the crossroad for this Week. Lagging upswing sequence comforted Sellers early on it’s Intra-day basis, as Price-action was close to #3-Month Top. The Price-action has stopped the uptrend fractal just below the Daily chart’s #MA50 as discussed on my latest commentary, with current mentioned configuration representing strong #2-Month Resistance zone, holding from February #3. As long as this holds, there are higher probabilities to reach the Hourly 4 chart’s Lower Low's first zone again (which is right now priced at #1,705.80) on Spot prices but touch will be done lower depending on the aggression of the current variance. Technically, Gold should ease the Overbought levels, but on such Fundamental landscape, it is not wise to Buy the market. After all, on the Daily timeframe, the pattern is an solid Channel Down which just touched the Higher Low trendline and has a limit just over #1,753.80, my main point of interests when Buying (depending on the impulse of the wave started early last Week). Below the #1,730.80, Short-term Neutral pattern is invalidated and the Selling may be accelerated towards the Hourly 4 chart’s #1,705.80.


Technical analysis prior to the chart: Gold had a Triple Top formation (Xau-Usd as always on my focus) on February #28, March #17, April #8 and naturally the market reacted with minimum #50 point rejection. The pullback can extend as Low as the #1,678.80 Lower Low second extension, if Daily chart’s Support break which is currently Trading at #1,730.80 and if broken, #1,705.80 should be next variance. Invalidation of #1,705.80 could engage aggressive decline towards #1,678.80, before new Short-term Buyers appear. The market speculations are already digested by market so don't be surprised if you see thin Volume on today’s U.S. session opening Bell, followed by Volatility. If #1,760.80 fails to hold (less likely), #1,788.80 is the next Resistance and expect a Lower High at #1,792.80, re-Sell zone if #1,788.80 holds (as discussed, only #21.72% chances for Bullish scenario to develop). As Gold is cycle asset, historically, every time Gold had Triple Top rejection, Gold delivered #3rd Lower Low Bottom (by my estimations, near #1,678.80). Gold is bound to give one more Bottom test before the Buyers appear near the stabilization zone and resume Neutral trend. There is apparent Golden Cross forming on Hourly 4 chart which can invalidate my Selling sequence/model, but I will choose not to pay too much attention to it since Gold respected it only once (#1), last #4 times #MA’s got crossed and emerged the Golden Cross. All my previous levels remains valid.


Bond Yields important development: U.S. Treasury is about to Sell #370 Billion in Treasuries in the next three Weeks’s - Highest Monthly issuance ever made / means that the Bond Yields could skyrocket which is adding to my Selling model.


My position: I already engaged my Selling order calling for #1,705.80 test, since my #1,730.80 Support got invalidated. I placed my Stop-loss a bit wider since my Yearly Profits are decent and my margin can afford it. If #1,705.80 gets invalidated, Price-action will continue Trading below #1,700.80 psychological barrier, Targeting second Lower Low extension, seen Trading at #1,678.80.