Death Cross emerging / #1,800.80 barrier test on the cards

Gold's general commentary: Yesterday's E.U. session started in Bullish fashion as Gold was approaching the important threshold of the #1,848.80 - #1,852.80 Higher High’s zone on the Weekly Uptrend. The Technical setting is now fully Bearish so this is an optimal Medium-term Selling opportunity on Gold for at least the January opening of #1,800.80 barrier, if not the #1,811.80 Weekly Support zone. Scaling is part of Trading and when you have a projection of Medium-term trend where one should act accordingly. Gold always respects its Medium and Long-term cycles and for now Price-action is still on an uptrend, right near the Upper middle of Fibonacci retracement level since early January Bottom. If the Higher High’s zone breaks however, I will be looking at the very real possibility of a new #1,868.80 test (very slim chances). What is worth noting is that Gold (which is well known for it’s safe-haven role) is generally doing well in pre-crisis times, and most likely Bullish pressure which was visible last couple of Month’s are sign that Investors are using Gold once again as the security in tough times which yellow metal offers.


Fundamental analysis: Throughout current Trading week, Price-action will be heavily affected by the macro-economic release (Fed statement) which occasionally arises both Buyers and Sellers on the aftermath. Personally, I expect rate to remain unchanged (and the Fundamental remarks on the DX), where Gold (fuelled by new hawkish stance) should move laterally with DX, ignoring their Technical negative correlation. Previous movements were performed due to the worldwide Bond market plunge and the escalation of the Trade tension (along with the news of possible Ukraine - Russia conflict). That lead to a capital inflow to Gold, working again as a Low risk asset for Investors who wish to see the later Trade implications from a safer place. I do not expect this phenomenon to last for long and Gold has to close the Gap with DX (remember a similar situation on the #1.326.70 and #1.327.40 Months ago), which broke the #95.00 barrier (November #11, #2017 fractal). All stated above is going in Buyers favour, but lagging upswing sequence is keeping the Selling bias alive, where Sellers await Technical correction towards #1,800.80 barrier. This is not fair Technical value / Price of Gold as I still aim for a Price-action near #1,800.80 pressure point. My estimations are pointing to #1,778.80, even #1,766.80.


Technical analysis and my Position: Price-action eventually rejected the Higher High's Resistance zone so it is going for the expected move of testing my Support seen Trading at #1,830.80, that has been practicing strong durability and Supporting from distance since January #19 breakout. I am expecting Selling market sentiment ahead of Wednesday's High impact Fed announcement to push the Price even Lower, as from now on I am less interested in Buying Gold. The reason is emerging Death Cross on Daily chart which is about to be completed, and lagging upswing sequence on Gold where Buyers are showing weak activity. Regardless of the Fed's decision which may add Volatility on Intra-day basis, I am expecting #1,800.80 test within #5 sessions. If #1,830.80 breaks firmly (#1,828.80 entry point), I will Sell Gold on spot with #1,811.80 as an precise handpicked Target. Gold needs to recover and break #1,852.80 as soon as possible, otherwise Gold is a Sell option.