Bullish bias less possible / Selling order activated
Gold's general commentary: With All Charts: Hourly (#1,#4,#5,) Daily and Weekly strongly crossed into Bearish values as I maintain my #1,900.80 Target and if broken on one hit / try, #1,882.80 is level to monitor in extension. Remember, when unsure of Gold's direction look always for the underlying correlations with the strongest instruments (Bond Yields, DX). With DX convincingly breaking the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone able to convert into healthy Ascending Channel, Gold's Bearish Medium-term trend is so far fairly maintained. Following the Intra-day trend shift (Volatility) on Gold caused by indecision on world’s geo-political scene, the Price-action is next to a key Daily point as it is testing former strong durability Support belt, seen Trading at #1,923.80 - #1,921.80 configuration. Last #2 out of #2 times #1,921.80, Support of utmost importance was respected creating the consolidation Rectangle, and ahead of current week’s Fundamentals, the Bearish break-out scenario is in continuation has really decent chances to develop. Until this happens (and as long as DX didn’t found Resistance zone and Bond Yields taking a pause from rising near multi-Month Higher High’s peak), the current consolidation will continue to resemble the October - November #2017 pattern, aiming the last big proportion Selling sequence of this cycle. Subsequently, Sellers will arise and may push the Price-action #23 points downwards towards #1,900.80 psychological barrier.
Technical analysis: Gold has broken Ascending Channel formation on Hourly 4 chart with today's session Price-action representing the Lower High’s Upper zone. Even though Gold had all Technical prospects to challenge #1,992.80 Higher High’s peak, as it is the new norm lately, trend was reversed due shift on Fundamental correlations part and attracted Gold's Sellers naturally. Gold didn’t changed it’s course and Bearish sentiment regarding the Medium-term as every rise (either on Hourly 4 chart but mostly on Daily) should be Sold after local Top's are priced in. As long as DX is not pressured by disappointing numbers I expect a smooth downfall (diagonal correlation) on Gold and call for #1,900’s test (First extension) - especially since Daily chart is about to turn fully Bearish again. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the Weekly scale - Gold has finally harmonized with DX partly but with Bond Yields fully. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,952.80 is invalidated, but by my calculations I give less chances to that outlook. As I previously noted, Gold is under unprecedented Volatility (especially last week) with Xau-Usd (which I always use on my analysis) and the Futures prices on a wide spread. This is of course the product of heavy speculation in the Metals market, fuelled by the expectation that the peace negotiations are advancing. Needless to mention, this environment is not Tradable with brokers displaying conflicting prices and violent Volatility on the futures contract. Bottom line, #1,900.80 is the next level to monitor.
Fundamental analysis and yesterday's session market closing commentary: Gold remains heavily pressured on a #1-Day basis as #1,942.80 first Resistance zone rejected the Price-action and prevented further gains on Gold, retracing the Price-action all the way below #1,930’s Support belt. The trend is approaching the #1,921.80 point as I am expecting the first signs of Support at #1,910.80 where Hourly 4 chart’s Medium-term Support is. If Support breaks, expect #1,882.80 former Support test and #1,852.80 barrier extension. However, if #1,921.80 holds, #1,930.80 should be next on the cards and #1,952.80 should be furthest extension, in the same time posing as an strong Resistance line. With recovery on DX and Bond Yields soaring (Gold follows the movement with diagonal correlation) - I doubt that Gold has potential to rise more, but if does, I’ll be forced to change my Selling perspective. Lately, Gold is revealing major moves throughout Asian session and as it was already on decent decline (#18 points or more as yesterday's session market closing was approaching), Bullish spikes were naturally expected after pricing such Intra-day decline, however this time I see no space for further Buying as market closing below #1,927.80 (former Weekly High’s) is adding credence to Sellers. It is important to understand that despite the heavy Selling pressure towards E.U. session, Gold has light Fundamental calendar so nothing is standing between Gold’s intention to pierce #1,900.80 barrier at the moment. I was tempted to Sell Gold once again throughout yesterday's late U.S. session when #1,930.80 was re-tested and invalidated, but as I could have full scale correction early on throughout today’s E.U. session (new norm lately), it was better to remain on sidelines, expect a pullback (as Gold was on # -2.00% decline already), which may delivered ideal Selling opportunity towards #1,900.80 barrier.
My position: My yesterday's session breakeven Stop-loss was triggered as I awaited new Selling opportunity. It appeared as today's E.U. session approached, where I engaged my Selling order with #1,923.80 as an entry point. My optimal Target is #1,910.80 first, then #1,900.80 barrier in extension. Implement strict Risk management.
Technical analysis: Gold has broken Ascending Channel formation on Hourly 4 chart with today's session Price-action representing the Lower High’s Upper zone. Even though Gold had all Technical prospects to challenge #1,992.80 Higher High’s peak, as it is the new norm lately, trend was reversed due shift on Fundamental correlations part and attracted Gold's Sellers naturally. Gold didn’t changed it’s course and Bearish sentiment regarding the Medium-term as every rise (either on Hourly 4 chart but mostly on Daily) should be Sold after local Top's are priced in. As long as DX is not pressured by disappointing numbers I expect a smooth downfall (diagonal correlation) on Gold and call for #1,900’s test (First extension) - especially since Daily chart is about to turn fully Bearish again. At this point I would like to share a key landmark on the Weekly scale - Gold has finally harmonized with DX partly but with Bond Yields fully. Bullish reversal is only sustainable if #1,952.80 is invalidated, but by my calculations I give less chances to that outlook. As I previously noted, Gold is under unprecedented Volatility (especially last week) with Xau-Usd (which I always use on my analysis) and the Futures prices on a wide spread. This is of course the product of heavy speculation in the Metals market, fuelled by the expectation that the peace negotiations are advancing. Needless to mention, this environment is not Tradable with brokers displaying conflicting prices and violent Volatility on the futures contract. Bottom line, #1,900.80 is the next level to monitor.
Fundamental analysis and yesterday's session market closing commentary: Gold remains heavily pressured on a #1-Day basis as #1,942.80 first Resistance zone rejected the Price-action and prevented further gains on Gold, retracing the Price-action all the way below #1,930’s Support belt. The trend is approaching the #1,921.80 point as I am expecting the first signs of Support at #1,910.80 where Hourly 4 chart’s Medium-term Support is. If Support breaks, expect #1,882.80 former Support test and #1,852.80 barrier extension. However, if #1,921.80 holds, #1,930.80 should be next on the cards and #1,952.80 should be furthest extension, in the same time posing as an strong Resistance line. With recovery on DX and Bond Yields soaring (Gold follows the movement with diagonal correlation) - I doubt that Gold has potential to rise more, but if does, I’ll be forced to change my Selling perspective. Lately, Gold is revealing major moves throughout Asian session and as it was already on decent decline (#18 points or more as yesterday's session market closing was approaching), Bullish spikes were naturally expected after pricing such Intra-day decline, however this time I see no space for further Buying as market closing below #1,927.80 (former Weekly High’s) is adding credence to Sellers. It is important to understand that despite the heavy Selling pressure towards E.U. session, Gold has light Fundamental calendar so nothing is standing between Gold’s intention to pierce #1,900.80 barrier at the moment. I was tempted to Sell Gold once again throughout yesterday's late U.S. session when #1,930.80 was re-tested and invalidated, but as I could have full scale correction early on throughout today’s E.U. session (new norm lately), it was better to remain on sidelines, expect a pullback (as Gold was on # -2.00% decline already), which may delivered ideal Selling opportunity towards #1,900.80 barrier.
My position: My yesterday's session breakeven Stop-loss was triggered as I awaited new Selling opportunity. It appeared as today's E.U. session approached, where I engaged my Selling order with #1,923.80 as an entry point. My optimal Target is #1,910.80 first, then #1,900.80 barrier in extension. Implement strict Risk management.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
