Gold under Buying pressure, Core CPI on main stage

Gold's general commentary: Throughout yesterday’s session, Traders witnessed how Fundamentals (Powell’s Bullish-wise speech for Gold), hence negative for DX) can momentarily distort Technical trends, as a seemingly Bullish Hourly 4 candle may close on positive fashion. The Bearish Daily trend of Ascending Channel still weighs but on predominantly Neutral to Bullish bias, since Gold is still below the #1,821.80 Bullish variance. If my Weekly regressional analysis is correct on a future Bearish Weekly candle succession, then late tomorrow’s session E.U. or U.S. session opening Gold should Trade below #1,808.80 variance and close the session in losses. As discussed, the proposed Channel which I mentioned in my previous posts is still dominating the Trade. Since then a Monthly Engulfing Bearish Reversal candlestick should negate most of those gains, as the EPS by Citigroup, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan beat the estimates, spurring excitement on Wall Street, making Investors relocate again their capital to equities. Despite this, Gold is still a Sell option, as since breaking #1,811.80 should largely negate the positive bias of the Volatile week’s, making a Descending Channel on bigger charts practically cancelling out the Higher High’s. Gold's greatest “success” this week was posting it's first Weekly candle with gains since two straight on heavy losses which were instantly Bought. The Price-action will be looking to fill the #1,81.80 contact point next which can restore the Bearish bias regarding Short-term.


Technical analysis: Despite the fact that DX still didn't corrected yesterday’s sharp takedown, Gold opened the E.U. session on a Neutral fashion after the Bond Yields retraced a bit aswell, as Selling momentum was postponed and Gold Bought back steep losses. This is most likely speculative positioning ahead of current session's Fundamentals (Core CPI). This will be the critical factor for Gold regarding Weekly fractal as I expect aggressive decline to be postponed but surely not out of the question (#1,800.80 or less) if Bond Yields continue the recovery and DX recovers in the same manner on the NFP debacle aftermath. Daily chart turned Highly Bearish on Higher timeframe and #1,824.80 is my first Resistance. If broken, Gold can push as much as #1,832.80 (above Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone). As discussed, I expect Sellers to arise since DX cannot Trade on Low’s for much longer. At the moment DX is not outperforming Gold indicating that I can spot Bearish bias mainly because #2 reasons: 1) Gold should be significantly Higher taking the circumstances in consideration, but isn’t and #2) deflating as the geopolitical tensions escalate and the capital that was parked on Gold should be relocated to riskier assets. I remain confident that the cyclical downside has potential to hit #1,678.80 in the coming #1 - #2 Months. Keep in mind that the Volatility will get Higher and Higher as market head towards more and more Fed meetings (where I expect Gold’s meltdown), so I won't be taking any excessive risks. If DX engage the recovery early on, expect #1,811.80 and #1,800.80 in extension by end of the week. No new orders at the moment.


My position: Even though I've expected Powell's speech to support previous Fed's hawkish stance, speech had Bullish note for Gold, hence Bearish for DX and as discussed, DX is still without a recovery candles and with stronger than expected number on CPI / it can revive DX Buyers, which may engage Short-term recovery. However, if DX does not recover current losses and Gold breaks #1,824.80 Resistance, #1,832.80 may be filled and on the cards, but personally, it is still not worth Buying Gold for few points of Profit. If CPI announcement goes against Gold's Buyers and Price-action tests #1,811.80 and breaks it with force, I will Sell Gold on spot towards #1,800.80 barrier. I am not interested in Buying Gold and will have excellent Selling opportunity towards #1,800.80 if #1,832.80 peak is tested and rejected.