please note: This is a personal journal only, but NOT a trading suggestion.
Current price: 1759
===================Analysis=================
On Last Friday, Gold reached 1780 to complete wave-c due to the effect of NFP news, but then reversed quickly and down to 1751 in the early morning of today.
Now it brings a confusing question, is it bullish or bearish?
Let's list a few facts in order to draw the conclusion:
1. Gold broke the big descending trendline, and retest it at point B ==> bullish signal
2. The H4 candle broke 1768 resistence once and touched 1780, but dropped back again in next H4 candle ==> weak or fake breakout
3. The daily bar closed as cross last Friday ==> reverse signal
4. 1746 - 1750 area have been a strong support area since last week. ==> bearish confirmation point
So, we can see both bear or bull effects, but neither of them is confirmed, which indicates that we are still in the Ranging Market. Usually once a complete 8-wave cycle finished, there will be a period of chaos of future direction.
Because the last drop is dip and straight (1780 -> 1751), we can expect in short term (which means intraday), some corrections might happen.
And the key resistence for this range is: 1765 , 1770
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold reaches 1765 - 1770 and then drop back agin to 1751 area
No.2 Some mysterical power come in and push Gold to 1780 again.
No.3 Gold drops back to 1751 area and then bounce again, and create a new range for correction.
Here's my P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market move. As a trader (not analyst), we need to know how to trade in different conditions, but not predict the conditions.
==================My Trading Plan=================
Based on these situation:
The key resistence : 1765, 1770
The key support: 1751
buy plan:
Buy stop : N/A
But limit: 1750 area, SL 1744, TP 1765
Sell plan:
Sell limit: 1770, SL 1774, TP 1760 1750
sell stop: N/A
The move will be violate today, for non-experience trader , I suggest you trade 30 mins after the news
Current price: 1759
===================Analysis=================
On Last Friday, Gold reached 1780 to complete wave-c due to the effect of NFP news, but then reversed quickly and down to 1751 in the early morning of today.
Now it brings a confusing question, is it bullish or bearish?
Let's list a few facts in order to draw the conclusion:
1. Gold broke the big descending trendline, and retest it at point B ==> bullish signal
2. The H4 candle broke 1768 resistence once and touched 1780, but dropped back again in next H4 candle ==> weak or fake breakout
3. The daily bar closed as cross last Friday ==> reverse signal
4. 1746 - 1750 area have been a strong support area since last week. ==> bearish confirmation point
So, we can see both bear or bull effects, but neither of them is confirmed, which indicates that we are still in the Ranging Market. Usually once a complete 8-wave cycle finished, there will be a period of chaos of future direction.
Because the last drop is dip and straight (1780 -> 1751), we can expect in short term (which means intraday), some corrections might happen.
And the key resistence for this range is: 1765 , 1770
So here are a few situations:
=================Possible Situation==========
No.1 Gold reaches 1765 - 1770 and then drop back agin to 1751 area
No.2 Some mysterical power come in and push Gold to 1780 again.
No.3 Gold drops back to 1751 area and then bounce again, and create a new range for correction.
Here's my P.S:
I'm NOT trying to predict the market move. As a trader (not analyst), we need to know how to trade in different conditions, but not predict the conditions.
==================My Trading Plan=================
Based on these situation:
The key resistence : 1765, 1770
The key support: 1751
buy plan:
Buy stop : N/A
But limit: 1750 area, SL 1744, TP 1765
Sell plan:
Sell limit: 1770, SL 1774, TP 1760 1750
sell stop: N/A
The move will be violate today, for non-experience trader , I suggest you trade 30 mins after the news
Trade active:
I'm adding a small buy at 1755. SL 1750
Trade active:
long add at 1753
Trade active:
I'm adding last long at 1750 now. SL at 1745
Trade closed: target reached:
close 1/3 at 1759
