Engaging my Selling order / Gold Targeting #1,766.80 variance

Gold's general commentary: Gold has ignored constant High’s on Bond Yields (no reversal signs) and remains basically ranged on Hourly 4 chart but still on steep Bearish gradient (Lower High’s - Higher High’s). On Daily basis, the next Low is located on the #1,785.80 mid-Support (Since #1,790.80 was broken on multiple occasions and Price-action closed the session below the #1,797.80 Resistance, which is excellent sign of Sellers). Buyers who didn’t paid attention to Fed’s minutes have been stopped out (no falling knife catching) and had to close their positions with losses. #1,802.80 is the Resistance, if broken - then the Weekly Resistance line (following the Hourly 1 chart’s Ascending Channel / resemblance on May #19) could be compromised as the Price-action will be calling for #1,814.80 Higher High’s extension and #1,821.80 in continuation (very small chances due to hawkish stance from the Fed and Real Yields on recovery). The Price-action is presently on the #2nd Bearish Hourly 4 candle in succession, having closed last week with gains, which allows current variance / week to close on evident losses. DX found the Support and attracted Buyers, but Gold is Supporting so far further takedown below the Bottom. Rising Wedge was visible on Hourly 4 chart, ready to deliver Selling confirmation once Support gets invalidated.


Technical analysis: I spotted many similarities regarding current fractal with the cycle from last Year: when Gold was Trading on Ascending Triangle able to convert into a phase upwards (May #8 - #17), Gold extended gains with more than #27 points once Resistance got invalidated, I am expecting similar sequence, just on the other side, means if Gold breaks #1,785.80 Support and with better than expected NFP announcement, Gold can dip towards #1,766.80 Intra-day. However, I am expecting Bearish continuation regardless: #1) DX is expected to move sideways for another #1 or #2 sessions horizon above the Resistance which can add Selling pressure on Gold and #2) Bullish Gap fill on Bond Yields may be up to smooth the Oversold Technical action on both Daily and Weekly chart (each on four), providing steady ground for further losses which can spike Gold downwards. From here, only direction is downside, but I cannot rule out small correction before eventual #1,750.80 psychological barrier test, and that’s why I had to be careful with my Stop-loss selection. Market speculators might be awaiting NFP announcement to reveal any clue regarding Short-term. Fundamentally, NFP report revealed that jobs growth for November increased more than anticipated, on December though #550.000 had been on the cards, and the Unemployment rate plummeted to #210.000. The participation rate as well, indicating that a greater number of U.S. citizens are no longer employed. Gold is Technically and Fundamentally equipped for an downtrend, regardless of NFP outcome. With few important Fundamental reports on a horizon, I see no reason why Gold shouldn’t test my Target within #2 sessions horizon.


My position: I have engaged my Selling order with #1,792.80 as an entry point. My Target is #1,766.80 (Medium-term Support). I am expecting greater than expected numbers on NFP, which might go along with Fed's tightening policy. In that case, DX will skyrocket and with Bond Yields already on #10-Month High's, meltdown on Gold would be inevitable. Keep in mind that past few NFP reports were merely ignored by Gold where announcement had less or no impact on Gold's Price-action, and since Gold is already in Bearish waters (Bearish Flag pattern emerging), I am expecting #1,766.80 in extension regardless.