Gold still within Descending Channel / Bearish bias intact
Gold's general commentary: Despite the Lower High’s test, fair Technical value of Gold (Spot prices) should be around #1,727.80 by now, according to my estimations. Gold didn’t collapsed since Fundamentals once again distorted Technical trends and postponed my expectations. DX took a decent hammering as the Price-action strongly bounced back from Resistance levels and tested Higher Low zone, which added huge Buying pressure on Gold which was evident as U.S. session approached (late session on Friday), however, DX is on a decent recovery currently, but rejected on Daily chart's Double Top formation. The Price-action has approached the same fractal as November #28 Bottom on a typical Intra-day Bullish fluctuation. The High Hourly 1 chart’s Volatility is an outcome of the reports missing the Target (NFP) and early interpretation that positive numbers will result into more aggressive hikes. I have to account the roll over effect for futures before considering a #1,759.80 test as a product of Fibonacci scale, as the Price-action is closer to Lower High, than to Higher Low, indicating indecision on both today’s and tomorrow's session.
Technical analysis: Expect the Volatility to decrease as January is approaching and clear formation of already mentioned pattern with #1,678.80 as an Final downside extension. #Q4 is historically is most Volatile period for Gold throughout the Yearly cycle as I think the cycle won’t change this Year. Once Bond Yields invalidate the Double Top formation aswell as DX, and comfortably continue Trading above the Bearish formation, I can expect Lower areas to be met on Gold. Bottom line: all depends on #1,792.80 Resistance - closing above will be a call for #1,800.80 psychological barrier test, and #1,812.80 in extension, below - Price-action will be calling for #1,759.80 Support test. I am heavily on Selling side, as market speculators are preventing the further downtrend for more than #90 sessions now. That confirms the Hourly 4 chart’s fractal (Triple Bottom rejection able to convert to Quadruple Bottom). As it is evident on the chart, market speculators prevented the full scale Selling oscillation, with an hybrid Intra-day reversal on all occasions (October #18, November #3, December #2).
My position: As #1,778.80 (my yesterday's session Selling entry point) was touched couple of times but never invalidated by the Price-action, I am left with no firm patterns to Trade by. As discussed throughout my yesterday's commentary, Gold is still within Neutral Rectangle, where both scenarios (not equally) are possible. My outlook leans more on the Selling side, where #1,772.80 break can be used as an decent Selling point, eyeing #1,766.80, and break of which can test the ultimate Medium-term Support of #1,759.80. I will take my chances if #1,772.80 breaks, and will not Buy Gold unless market breaks and closes above #1,792.80 Resistance.
Technical analysis: Expect the Volatility to decrease as January is approaching and clear formation of already mentioned pattern with #1,678.80 as an Final downside extension. #Q4 is historically is most Volatile period for Gold throughout the Yearly cycle as I think the cycle won’t change this Year. Once Bond Yields invalidate the Double Top formation aswell as DX, and comfortably continue Trading above the Bearish formation, I can expect Lower areas to be met on Gold. Bottom line: all depends on #1,792.80 Resistance - closing above will be a call for #1,800.80 psychological barrier test, and #1,812.80 in extension, below - Price-action will be calling for #1,759.80 Support test. I am heavily on Selling side, as market speculators are preventing the further downtrend for more than #90 sessions now. That confirms the Hourly 4 chart’s fractal (Triple Bottom rejection able to convert to Quadruple Bottom). As it is evident on the chart, market speculators prevented the full scale Selling oscillation, with an hybrid Intra-day reversal on all occasions (October #18, November #3, December #2).
My position: As #1,778.80 (my yesterday's session Selling entry point) was touched couple of times but never invalidated by the Price-action, I am left with no firm patterns to Trade by. As discussed throughout my yesterday's commentary, Gold is still within Neutral Rectangle, where both scenarios (not equally) are possible. My outlook leans more on the Selling side, where #1,772.80 break can be used as an decent Selling point, eyeing #1,766.80, and break of which can test the ultimate Medium-term Support of #1,759.80. I will take my chances if #1,772.80 breaks, and will not Buy Gold unless market breaks and closes above #1,792.80 Resistance.
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- Few other un-official channels are not mine, they are copies using my real information (impersonating me and my work / identity) so keep that in mind and beware of those.
