For some time I have been sharing this or similar chart of GOLD with many individuals and pointing out that the recent sharp move up in Gold is not a new Uptrend but rather continuation of correction or congestion following the All Time High.

See my earlier chart from Mid November 2012 http://www.screencast.com/t/BYY2pjNxv

Main Reasons for this is (1) we have a triangle at the base of the rally. Triangle normally only appear in Wave 4 or Wave C. as this is at the base it can only be Wave b. Both suggest that on the breakout it would be the last move in that direction. Therefore in this case the breakout to the upside could only be minor wave c that recently topped and we have been declining since. That continuation of weakness could retest the summer low in the region of 1500 round number. (2) in a large correction such as this one, we should have Momentum divergence between what might be Wave A and Wave C We do not have such divergence in the RSI hence we expect another lower low which could potentially produce such divergence. Consequently the current weakness could fulfill that requirement. If so, then we would have a new low in this congestion since all time high & it would complete Wave 4 on larger degree, setting the base from which new uptrend (Wave 5) could take place.
Therefore, any reasonable retracement on smaller time frame should be opportunity to short Gold .


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