$XAUUSD - Gold: Bearish [Intermediate-Term]

FX:XAUUSD   Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar
A few of my previous charts on gold have been bearish , with initial targets around $1500-1400, which were then revised to suggest possibly as low as $1150. Well, it came close so, from a technical perspective; it did reach the zone I expected for a low, but the wave counts had not been clear enough to support a high degree of confidence.

However, I think the important low has been established. This is evident from that fact that in the move up from the December low to March high Gold has seemingly moved in 5 waves. Subsequent decline, though very strong, does not exhibit impulsive 5-wave–type of decline; rather, more like a retracement. So, this now gives me confidence that the originally anticipated low is in fact likely the major low, and that we are now in a longer-term bullish cycle.

Since the top in March, we've seen sharp sell-off with partial retracement to the upside. What now follows is a possible triangle which, from my previous videos on Bitcoin , is explained to follow only forms in either wave "x", "b", or "4". You can investigate that explanation on YouTube, at:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nnpdt2YABY8

In each of these cases, it suggested a continuation pattern; that is, a prior trend leading into a triangle is recurrent. If this plays out then we have the potential for a short trade, or in the intermediate term. However, when dealing with triangles, it is not always very clear exactly where they begin and end.

Should that be the case with this, It could be that we may have another short-term leg up (out of the triangle) before dropping or significantly breaking down from here, which would be ideal for a downside target in the $1200-1220 zone.

Despite the clarity of this trend, if you were to trade this, the risk of getting it wrong is still high. So then, how would one trade this (or any other instruments) safely under these conditions? I suggest by the suitable use of Options.

In a short session, all aspect of Options trading cannot be covered, but do join me as I attempt to demonstrate a few possibilities live, in Google Hangouts link - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBU...

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Excellent recopilation of Knowledge and information, Sr, really thanks for share your views and analisys
+1 Reply
DanV PabloDoNazimento
You are welcomed. Thank you for your appreciation.
hi,Your previous idea was very useful, Please update your beautiful ideas,thanx.
That turned out well. I bought Silver on the dip. Thanks Dan V
so upside and downside are balanced, does a downside move have to reach 1180-1200 or is there support for a snap back before that. I would only go short below 1260 and long above 1321 there seems to be a trap either wayy around these levels
DanV hoerdewhapper
Once we break fro the triangle which I think is likely to be to the downside, the downside target for now is 1220-1200 (as a round number) zone. Not sure of your method of trading. If you are long term swing trader so to speak then best to wait for it to drop to the level for likely bottom and consider long entry.
Dear DanV, we had move from 1240 to 1258...Do you think we have started major wave 3 ? Thanks
DanV AzimjonSaidov
No I don't think so. I think this is a retracement an should have another leg lower to 1220-1220 zone. But will need to review that should price begin to suggest otherwise.
Dear, Another push up now at 1263.5....maybe now major wave 3?
DanV AzimjonSaidov
Hi, there. It is not possible just yet to confirm if we have the low yet or not. I feeling is that there is more downside and the bounce is possibly a retracement.