DanV
Short

GOLD Is Unloved - Could this lead to a capitulation?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold / U.S. Dollar
In the last published chart, I highlighted the short term triangle with expectation of bearish resolution. This duly took place though the downside target of 1220 zone was not met. Since then the rally has been in what appears to be 3 swings ie abc, not impulsive, but corrective.

Therefore, I have revisited the move of the Dec             2013 low and whilst it looks very convincing as impulsive 5 wave up and I was willing to accept that, though it was not entirely clear and fits more a 3 swing move.

Consequently, with the complete overview from Sept 2011 high I am concluding that we are still in larger Wave 4 correction forming 1st Zigzag to Dec             2011 low followed by wxy move to October 2012 high as larger X wave.

Since then we have 5 wave decline to June 2013 low as wave A, followed by a triangle to recent high forming wave B and now we could be in early development of wave C unfolding in 5 wave decline. Hence new downside target could be well below last 3 lows namely 1100 as conservative or even 1000 as round number. This could be the despair phase leading to potential capitulation low.

Upon completion of this double zigzag we should resume the major uptrend to retest Sept 2011 high or make new higher high.

This is in contract to many Elliotwave Analyst expecting this entire move from Sept 2011 high to be 5 waves decline suggesting a multi year sideways to bearish decline.

For general discussion and possible use of Options to trade big swings with relatively limited risk view Youtube Video at Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBUdM

Remember, this is my interpretation of the price action and application of Elliotwave along with standard technical analysis . You must do your own analysis for your trade planning.
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Gold is unloved? i see the opposite - too many longs! hence the necessary bleeding ;)
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Gold is a GARBAGE! check it
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There is paper gold and then there is physical Gold. Western Central Planners hate gold because it makes their economic policy and paper money look stupid, however physical gold is very much loved by Asia, and there is no doubt Western vaults are running on empty, Gold is moving from West to East, like it did before Nixon closed the gold window. Beware he with the most gold makes the rules.
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MRS Watanabe MRS Watanabe
https://www.bullionstar.com/article/icbc%2520a%2520new%2520global%2520currency%2520setup%2520is%2520being%2520conceived
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I have moved the B pivot of the fork to an earlier date, which shows a potentially bullish set up if we get a bounce off the arrowed warning line, note arrowed double bottom that is the low, it cannot go lower as mine supply is non existent when costs are higher than gold they mine. CB supply is non existent, and what we see is 'paper' supply. Today I would be very surprised if we get a LBMA PM fix bellow the massive sovereign bids which, last look were near $1305. What I am saying it is that there is a potential for a physical market default, if they are stupid enough to allow such a low gold PM fix and these orders get filled. In short there is not enough gold in the vaults to fill the orders.
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DanV MOD MRS Watanabe
Thank you for your comments, appreciate your point of view. Only time will tell. However, at times there are many cross currents and market dynamics which could affect short term price action even though longer term your fundamental reasoning may well be sound. As in volatile market prices could get stretched.
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watch 980
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troll
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Nickmail MRS Watanabe
MRS Troll , you also can find "Gold is a garbage" idea at my portfolio///
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We can see the quality of your TA, looking at the DXY chart you posted 11months ago, I repeat this is a TA board and not for Trolls. So what TA you use to reach $980?
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Nickmail MRS Watanabe
Gold is a garbage
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you are confused about gold, it is the anti-dollar and is heavily manipulated to make the US$ look good. When you have commercial signal failure in gold at COMEX or LBMA the price will shock you. The offer will just vanish.
You hold onto your US$ I will hold onto my gold and see which reaches zero first?
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Inflation adjusted gold chart.
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Looks very bearish for gold long term. Also, the extreme inflation of the late 70s/1980 just isn't there.
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Interesting. It seems to be from that chart the in the very short term, ie over next few months, bearish. 6-18 months will probably retest the high or make new higher high before declining in big way. As this is a spread chart, that could happen by adjustment to both in some respect.
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gold fears deflation ! LOLROF, ! inflation is expansion of the money supply,... you been shops lately? price inflation is a symptom, the inflation is expansion of money.... besides the figures are fudged, the books are cooked. Gold is gone, you are up a creek without a paddle.
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Muwa MRS Watanabe
Gold bulls distrust the CPI, but all the reputable financial professionals go by it. So, it does not matter if you think it is a false statistic as market makers clearly trust it. Inflation adjusted, Gold's upside is limited.
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Muwa Muwa
Clear example that CPI is used by institutional players:
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Coincidence? I think not.
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Gold is not entirely an Inflation or deflation trade, it is a counter party risk trade, A hedge against CB insanity. A hedge against the demise of the green back. JP Morgan said it best under oath 'Gold is money everything else is debt.'
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We've spent majority of the past 15 years in a deflationary cycle. It's going to take even more liquidity in the system to kill the threat once and for all. So no worries of inflation for another 5 years or more.
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Hi DanV, what do you think about this scenario? Don't you think the rise could initiate from that e point? cheers Hamza.
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mkdeep04 HamzaLeith
hi hamza if wedge brkout .. should tgt be brkout lvl - CDhigh http://prntscr.com/4b4cjt
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Goldfinga HamzaLeith
HamazaLeith you may want to anchor your A,B,C (Pink Fork pivots) to the actual and exact highs and lows on the chart otherwise you are fitting a fork to an imaginary price, the pitch forks work, but only when the fork's pivots are anchored correctly. Fork shows the direction of price and likely supt/resists. Pink fork is therefore invalid.
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NICE
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Till we have more price data, I am tempering my downside expectation for gold to 1180-1160 and minor wave iv appears near complete so final leg down could do the trick unless it become wave 1 or 5. Here is the chart image
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DanV look at the triple bottom in time!! on your chart join your a, b and iV = FIBO 1.61803 the golden ratio more here
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.es/2014/10/golds-triple-bottom-and-1618-golden.html
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baraq.adnan Goldfinga
guys very interesting time - i am sticking to my view of EW3 pending and this is wave4 correction - 1140 i want to see before Christmas !
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DanV MOD baraq.adnan
If this is wave 4 the how is EW 3 pending. Sorry don't follow you.
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Sorry DanV typo error- EW5 is pending*
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DanV MOD baraq.adnan
Ah, that is what I suspect. though the downside might not be as deep as many are expecting. Interesting nevertheless.
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i am expecting 1140 max before correction. lets see :)
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DanV MOD Goldfinga
I note what you are saying. However, that don't mean an automatic low is in as 1.618 time relationship could turn out be be some other relationship.
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again we are playing with probability - interesting point of view Goldfinga as well. i am sticking to my analysis as long as market proves me wrong. whats your last line of defense (price) before it confirm we are wrong on bearish side.
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DanV MOD baraq.adnan
Well absolute level would be 1280 which is the orthodox low of wave 1 of this cycle and it should not overlap that price. However, long before then hopefully price action will show evidence that we are wrong.
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The daily Ichimoku chart shows we have a very bullish signal, that is a cross over of the MAs bellow the kumo cloud, it would be unwise in my opinion to go short or be short Gold. and not only for this technical reason
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On the 30 Nov, the Swiss people hold a referendum to force their central bank to hold 20% of currency reserves in physical gold and locate all of it in Switzerland. A yes vote would ban their central bank from selling more gold, and force the Swiss CB to buy physical gold and eliminate the Franc's peg to the Euro. The CB would adopt a hard money and stop trashing its own currency with that crazy peg,
The risk of a large tonnage buy order coming to the gold market could push the price rather high. Besides what if the market front runs the vote? If you trade gold, there is another notable development > the SGE international board, it is now open!! gold comes in to China but is incredibly difficult for it to leave. I Keep an eye on the discount or premium between the LBMA/COMEX paper game and the SGE physical gold price and have noted the inability of the short camp on COMEX/LBMA to gain momentum during their short raids.
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Goldfinga Goldfinga
First polls on Gold vote in Switzerland show 45% support, 39% oppossing
SNB would have to buy 1500 tonnes, anyone thinking that tonnage is available at these prices is on holiday.
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hello! i see short from 1258. max it can 1264 & then down
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Goldfinga Nickmail
to make my point at how powerfull Ichimoku is, note the similarity in bullish and bearish cross overs in the 2 instruments. The cross over bellow the kumo in the USDINDEX indicated a potential rally, see shaded area month of May. Gold has done the opposite of USD and done a bullish cross over bellow the kumo. Now note the bearish cross over above the KUMO in USDindex.... timing is not perfect but the cross overs coincide. GOLD is also known as the anti-dollar.
.
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The main chart above was posted nearly 3 months ago. The sideways triangle eventually have way and the final 5th wave decline unfolded. However, now many are shouting $1,000 as the downside target. Whilst this could be reached, it appears that in the 5th wave we are now in very last section of minor wave iv retracement now in progress which will then lead to minor wave v decline with possible target of 1150 being the zone of Fib projection using the internal fib relation of 5th wave as well as 1.618% x the initial wave A-c decline projected from top of X see chart above. Hence, based on the details just described, I suspect we are likely to form major low in the regions of 1150. Here is the updated 5th wave
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if the down cycle hasn't started from 1344 zone, with July high then we could be expecting a falling wedge which mean will take little long even though it does for a low in the region of 1125-1100. Unless this get real ugly and we just collapse to 1000 zone and this wave 3 decline forms normal wave 3 meaning we want get a falling wedge or ending diagonal. But best to keep both possibility in mind.
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