DanV
Short

GOLD Is Unloved - Could this lead to a capitulation?

FX:XAUUSD   Gold/U.S. Dollar
In the last published chart, I highlighted the short term triangle with expectation of bearish resolution. This duly took place though the downside target of 1220 zone was not met. Since then the rally has been in what appears to be 3 swings ie abc, not impulsive, but corrective.

Therefore, I have revisited the move of the Dec             2013             low and whilst it looks very convincing as impulsive 5 wave up and I was willing to accept that, though it was not entirely clear and fits more a 3 swing move.

Consequently, with the complete overview from Sept 2011 high I am concluding that we are still in larger Wave 4 correction forming 1st Zigzag to Dec             2011 low followed by wxy move to October 2012 high as larger X wave.

Since then we have 5 wave decline to June 2013             low as wave A, followed by a triangle to recent high forming wave B and now we could be in early development of wave C unfolding in 5 wave decline. Hence new downside target could be well below last 3 lows namely 1100 as conservative or even 1000 as round number. This could be the despair phase leading to potential capitulation low.

Upon completion of this double zigzag we should resume the major uptrend to retest Sept 2011 high or make new higher high.

This is in contract to many Elliotwave Analyst expecting this entire move from Sept 2011 high to be 5 waves decline suggesting a multi year sideways to bearish decline.

For general discussion and possible use of Options to trade big swings with relatively limited risk view Youtube Video at Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnVcuQfBUdM

Remember, this is my interpretation of the price action and application of Elliotwave along with standard technical analysis . You must do your own analysis for your trade planning.
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if the down cycle hasn't started from 1344 zone, with July high then we could be expecting a falling wedge which mean will take little long even though it does for a low in the region of 1125-1100. Unless this get real ugly and we just collapse to 1000 zone and this wave 3 decline forms normal wave 3 meaning we want get a falling wedge or ending diagonal. But best to keep both possibility in mind.
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The main chart above was posted nearly 3 months ago. The sideways triangle eventually have way and the final 5th wave decline unfolded. However, now many are shouting $1,000 as the downside target. Whilst this could be reached, it appears that in the 5th wave we are now in very last section of minor wave iv retracement now in progress which will then lead to minor wave v decline with possible target of 1150 being the zone of Fib projection using the internal fib relation of 5th wave as well as 1.618% x the initial wave A-c decline projected from top of X see chart above. Hence, based on the details just described, I suspect we are likely to form major low in the regions of 1150. Here is the updated 5th wave
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Till we have more price data, I am tempering my downside expectation for gold to 1180-1160 and minor wave iv appears near complete so final leg down could do the trick unless it become wave 1 or 5. Here is the chart image
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DanV look at the triple bottom in time!! on your chart join your a, b and iV = FIBO 1.61803 the golden ratio more here
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com.es/2014/10/golds-triple-bottom-and-1618-golden.html
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baraq.adnan Goldfinga
guys very interesting time - i am sticking to my view of EW3 pending and this is wave4 correction - 1140 i want to see before Christmas !
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DanV MOD baraq.adnan
If this is wave 4 the how is EW 3 pending. Sorry don't follow you.
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Sorry DanV typo error- EW5 is pending*
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DanV MOD baraq.adnan
Ah, that is what I suspect. though the downside might not be as deep as many are expecting. Interesting nevertheless.
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i am expecting 1140 max before correction. lets see :)
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DanV MOD Goldfinga
I note what you are saying. However, that don't mean an automatic low is in as 1.618 time relationship could turn out be be some other relationship.
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