DanV
Long

Silver - forming a major low could offer opportunity for long.

FX:XAGUSD   Silver / U.S. Dollar
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Since 2011 all time high in Silver and Gold , many analyst have been challenged to fully appreciate this correction to date. Some Bulls have been perplexed with fall below support in 26 area. Likewise many Bears have the initial decline and after some retracement are expecting it to drop to much lower level along with gold which they postulate could drop for decades.

However, taking in to consideration possible Dollar Index , major commodities such Oil and wider stock market, I think we have a major opportunity in both Silver and Gold . Though Silver could steal the show over next 18-24 months.

I only have limited price data at hand. If we had more historical price data overall view might need to be modified. However, for the next 18-24 months we have enough price data that is suggesting a very large rising wedge - see in snapshot of 3 monthly chart below.

If correct then we could retest the historical high. Since the 2011 high we have abc correction that looks very complete and potential low could form. Therefore, long entries could be planned on either confirmation or using gradual legging in or just plain far out of the money long term call option my preferred method.

As always, you must do your own analysis for your trade planning. Would love to hear specific alternatives if you wish to share. If you like the analysis please select to follow me and the chart. Share it with others in your traders circle.

Thank you for taking time to view my analysis.
Bearish Flag on Silver! I'm expecting a bounce here but definitely something to keep and eye on. if this flag is successful, we may see Silver revisit the $15 per ounce price.
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Question - why have you used the fib projection between the A wave and this current C wave... by taking the length of wave 3 of A rather than the whole length of A?
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DanV max_andronichuk
Hi thank for your question.

That was not for common EW projection in which case you are correct it should be the whole of wave (a). I am using it for normal AB=CD projection where it is simply projecting a swing regardless of its location in EW cycle.

Hope this helps.
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Hello
I like your chart. Thank you. Can I ask how do you know that 4/18/11 is a 3? When I count it looks like a top- or 5. I am a novice and trying to learn. Thank you very much. Actually, I may have JUSST answered my own question... lol .. is it because the volume tells you so??? I just read that last night in my Frost/Prech EW book ... lol
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DanV webmiztriz
Hi thanks for your question.

You are correct that volume normally is relatively high in wave 3 similar to momentum and both decline or diverge in wave 5.

However, with silver I don't have access to longer term historical data. So from what we have at hand you could be right in that it is a 5 wave move or as I have suggested 2011 top could be larger wave 3 but not of 5 wave but rather a zigzag suggesting that it is part of larger ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction. If correct then we should see another zigzag up to retest last high or make new higher high completing a much larger cycle.

We will get more clues with price development.

Hope this helps.
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Still no break out of the trendline..
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DanV ElPatron.Y
Thanks you for your question. Not yet. Some trend change takes time and feel this is one of them and possible top or retracement in DXY will likely help. Otherwise we will have to review EW counts as it might still be completing the bearish cycle which could complete soon. If there is significant change I will republish updated analysis.
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Red resistance sure panned out
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Sorry not with your about the red resistance.
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2use DanV
But it is still within the downtrend outlined in red. Plus within the major uptrend as it bounced off the blue support.
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