DanV
Long

Silver - forming a major low could offer opportunity for long.

FX:XAGUSD   Silver/U.S. Dollar
Since 2011 all time high in Silver             and Gold             , many analyst have been challenged to fully appreciate this correction to date. Some Bulls have been perplexed with fall below support in 26 area. Likewise many Bears have the initial decline and after some retracement are expecting it to drop to much lower level along with gold             which they postulate could drop for decades.

However, taking in to consideration possible Dollar Index             , major commodities such Oil             and wider stock market , I think we have a major opportunity in both Silver             and Gold             . Though Silver             could steal the show over next 18-24 months.

I only have limited price data at hand. If we had more historical price data overall view might need to be modified. However, for the next 18-24 months we have enough price data that is suggesting a very large rising wedge - see in snapshot of 3 monthly chart below.

If correct then we could retest the historical high. Since the 2011 high we have abc correction that looks very complete and potential low could form. Therefore, long entries could be planned on either confirmation or using gradual legging in or just plain far out of the money long term call option my preferred method.

As always, you must do your own analysis for your trade planning. Would love to hear specific alternatives if you wish to share. If you like the analysis please select to follow me and the chart. Share it with others in your traders circle.

Thank you for taking time to view my analysis.
DanV MOD
2 years ago
3 monthly chart for a view of possible larger cycle
snapshot
-1 Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Oil & EURUSD correlation chart to suggest possible weakness for Dollar
snapshot
Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
Do you have this updated? lot happened since then
CL1 - trade idea for end of february
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
I do on my chart and only to access the potential low for the oil. I think the current bounce is possibly minor wave 4 meaning the wave 5 to downside is still outstanding and could see this complete around 38-40 area. Here is the relevant section of the chart.
snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Dollar Index
snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD
2 years ago
Here is a Gold/Silver ratio suggesting Silver should soon begin to strengthen against Gold.
snapshot
+1 Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
Want this posted somewhere so i can follow it
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
You can book mark it and also select to follow and then any updates or comments will be notified to you.
Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
As long as someone remembers to post the charts as comments. :)
Reply
Your divergence isn't valid until we get two consecutive bullish candles. The RSI could push lower invalidating it.

But yes I'm a huge buyer at these levels. Actually converting 20% of my FX account (cash..) to physical.
Reply
ilver Reaches Key Resistance at Important Moving Average
Reply
DanV MOD CommoditiesTrader
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing your chart. I am following this keenly. So far the 2 strong drive up are promising but the counts thereafter are little unclear. So further price action could clarify. In particular the kind of retracement that follows.
Reply
2use
2 years ago
So far 3 green bars. Spot on
Reply
2use 2use
2 years ago
And we reached the first level :)
Reply
MrJozza
2 years ago
Lets hope so. Low oil price and weak silver is killing my portfolio.
Reply
2use
2 years ago
Red resistance sure panned out
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
Sorry not with your about the red resistance.
Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
But it is still within the downtrend outlined in red. Plus within the major uptrend as it bounced off the blue support.
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
Ah I see what you mean. The declining red channel is still in play but based on what I posted I think this is likely to break on next swing to upside and low should hold proving that we are retracing the move up from that low. Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
yes, i expect a higher low, a break, and a higher high and ...so forth. but still, that line was the one i focused on most - and it did hold it. (gold is prepping for some move as well...but wont count the chickens just yet)
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
Agreed 100% both for Silver & Gold
Reply
2use DanV
2 years ago
Am i sensing short-term shortness on indexes? (im just saying, but it seems that just by the techs, many indexes over the world need to chill a bit...that is perfectly in line with what i anticipate with silver, gold, dollar, nikkei...)
Reply
DanV MOD 2use
2 years ago
Yes I would concur with that.
Reply
Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Still no break out of the trendline..
Reply
DanV MOD Yahia.Awes
2 years ago
Thanks you for your question. Not yet. Some trend change takes time and feel this is one of them and possible top or retracement in DXY will likely help. Otherwise we will have to review EW counts as it might still be completing the bearish cycle which could complete soon. If there is significant change I will republish updated analysis.
Reply
Hello
I like your chart. Thank you. Can I ask how do you know that 4/18/11 is a 3? When I count it looks like a top- or 5. I am a novice and trying to learn. Thank you very much. Actually, I may have JUSST answered my own question... lol .. is it because the volume tells you so??? I just read that last night in my Frost/Prech EW book ... lol
snapshot
Reply
DanV MOD webmiztriz
a year ago
Hi thanks for your question.

You are correct that volume normally is relatively high in wave 3 similar to momentum and both decline or diverge in wave 5.

However, with silver I don't have access to longer term historical data. So from what we have at hand you could be right in that it is a 5 wave move or as I have suggested 2011 top could be larger wave 3 but not of 5 wave but rather a zigzag suggesting that it is part of larger ending diagonal of 3-3-3-3-3 construction. If correct then we should see another zigzag up to retest last high or make new higher high completing a much larger cycle.

We will get more clues with price development.

Hope this helps.
+1 Reply
Question - why have you used the fib projection between the A wave and this current C wave... by taking the length of wave 3 of A rather than the whole length of A?
Reply
DanV MOD max_andronichuk
a year ago
Hi thank for your question.

That was not for common EW projection in which case you are correct it should be the whole of wave (a). I am using it for normal AB=CD projection where it is simply projecting a swing regardless of its location in EW cycle.

Hope this helps.
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Billing Sign Out