In fact I have hear a presentation from notable commentator suggesting 2009 will is a generational low ie will not be revisited ever in his life time. I think he is in his fifties.
He has shown many charts in his presentation boasting over 30 years of real life experience in the of financial markets. Therefore many stock that are languishing at 50% of the retracement of the 2000 high to 2009 low are heading to retest their all times high.
If he is correct about these retesting their all time high, then I think they are running short of time.
From my chart you can see that we are only couple of months away fro forming truly forming a generational "TOP" that really is unlikely to be retested for more than generation. In fact we might spend another 15 years or so cascading down before forming a lasting low at a level likely below 2009 low.
So the wind will change may be by Early Sept to late October with SP500 hitting 2000 zone and could spike into 2030 area.
Could the end of Tapering and prospect of rising interest rate be the catalyst? I wonder.
Likewise could Gold bottom by then? Check out my published chart
Well for the trader this could be an opportunity of a life time.
As always, this is my interpretation of the price action. Be sure to do your own analysis before planning a trade.
My analysis for Gold and DXY have been published and I will link the charts for you below.
It is my belief that the major top in Equities in process of being formed. Though since I have publish this chart it has gone on little higher than suggested but not to the extent that it has changed the overall picture.
You are correct that normally money would go into Bonds. But in this case if all or majority of the USD coming out of Equities goes in to US Bonds then from USD point of view it is neutral. Just like when money coming out of Bonds go into US Equities.
However, if some of the money coming out goes into Gold then I am not sure how much this might affect USD, may be not as it is denominated in USD. It might affect it some what, but can't quantify from my limited resources of analytical data and methods. However, unlike 2007/08 when every thing fell against USD, I think Gold is likely to benefit. It might be viewed as safe haven this time during the turmoil in the market (though it must be kept in mind that on larger perspective we are heading in to deflationary environment when it is not supportive of Gold going higher)
I suspect that during the last 2-3 years when both the and USD & US Equities have gone up probably as a result of net inflow of foreign money, some of these would be repatriated or reinvested in other currencies and geographical region.
I can't demonstrate this idea as plausible, but when I look at DXY and several USD currency pairs, they all require at least retracement as minimum then they could all continue to weaken against USD in which case we might have USD gaining for few more year.
OR as I suspect DXY is in major bear market which is about to resume then it might follow that USD sell off in equities would result in net outflow of money away from US soil. So that needs to be proven and how DXY behave over next 6 months or so would give us much better view of longer term price path of all USD denominated assets. It will confirm if the current USD weakness is just temporary or resumption of bearish cycle.
Therefore right now other than Equities forming a major top, I have flexible outlook on USD & DXY which will remain under review for few months before making conclusion. Similarly we could, as has often happened previously when both USD and Gold have go up together.
There are so many major factors at play in global finance that it is not easy to have them all fit in perfectly to conform to a particular model and during turmoil some of the standard behaviour could remain out of sync and confused.
Sorry can't be as clear as you might have expected. But it will give some points to ponder on.