When I originally posted this chart in late January (https://www.tradingview.com/v/rq4HxBu2/
) I wave clearly bearish
and explained my reasons. I was expecting decline to retest low around 1500 or if the move was AB=CD
then it had 1400 as potential downside target. Though that was not necessarily the maximum downside target, I did not expect it to drop to sub 1200. I subsequently updated that chart with revised downside targets along the way and possible EW counts. However, I think it is time to publish fully updated chart. I am now looking at 1100-1150 area for possible significant low. This new lower low could actually be a washout low where we should see climatic action, since I have noted that many well respected professional fund managers have recently reduced their position in Gold
as they think it will suffer with USD strengthens due to tapering in EQ
. But those who are holding longs will finally throw in their towel so to speak for low to form from where Gold
could stage a major rally towards retesting all time high.
The reason for looking for bottom around 1100 area is based on my long term chart am my interpretation as shown on the chart below.
So I would be looking for climatic action with a view of loading up on far out of the money long term options.