DanV
Short

Gold - Continue bearish decline

979 3 5
When I originally posted this chart in late January (https://www.tradingview.com/v/rq4HxBu2/ ) I wave clearly bearish and explained my reasons. I was expecting decline to retest low around 1500 or if the move was AB=CD then it had 1400             as potential downside target. Though that was not necessarily the maximum downside target, I did not expect it to drop to sub 1200. I subsequently updated that chart with revised downside targets along the way and possible EW counts. However, I think it is time to publish fully updated chart. I am now looking at 1100-1150 area for possible significant low. This new lower low could actually be a washout low where we should see climatic action, since I have noted that many well respected professional fund managers have recently reduced their position in Gold             as they think it will suffer with USD strengthens due to tapering in EQ             . But those who are holding longs will finally throw in their towel so to speak for low to form from where Gold             could stage a major rally towards retesting all time high.

The reason for looking for bottom around 1100 area is based on my long term chart am my interpretation as shown on the chart below.
So I would be looking for climatic action with a view of loading up on far out of the money long term options.
DanV MOD
3 years ago
Here is the long term Chart with suggestion that once the low is formed Gold will proceed to retest the all time high if not go beyond that
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DanV MOD
3 years ago
Since the low June low, it is clear that we have abc zigzag up swing into 1400 area, and have not really develop the expected impulsive 5 wave down swing. So it has become little complex. However, that 5 wave swings still remains outstanding. Therefore, I suspect is that what we have is larger abc zigzag and are now in 2nd leg up which could again run to 1400 area or more likely 1375 area and form running flat. On completion, the final 5 wave leg down to 1150-1100 area will follow. This coincided with possible retracement bounce in DXY due this week or shortly. So real buy opportunity will be sometime in Mid Dec .
snapshot
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