Halliburton Spike, Subsequent Re-test; Failure: Re-position now

Halliburton showed strong signs of a breakout when it spiked over 16/share. It turned out be a "pump fake" by $HAL and the entire $USOIL industry. Terrible news regarding a "Second" (See: actual first!) spike of the COVID-19 pandemic has stalled further reopnings in many states, and the US overall reported a record number of cases yesterday and in through today. $USOIL is trending down over 2% and could reach as low as 35 per barrel by the close of this week. This, along with Halliburton's steady decline, are leaving the window open for a very strong short.

A short, here, would be in mind with re-positioning and increasing one's holding, as the firm belief is that when the oil industry does reach its full recovery, that Halliburton will be among the first and biggest benefactors. For the interim, however, its value is dicey and many market indicators are showing "SELL" as the popular move here.

$HAL was over 25/share in this calendar year, but has gone as low as just over 5/share, and if COVID truly rears its ugly head a return to that low of a share level is not out of the question. Reasonably, a decent estimate certainly could see it fall below 10/share next week.

That Mar 18-20 nadir may not be re-tested, but it is hardly something that can be ruled out. If further quarantining becomes the route for areas the outbreak rages on in, then the woods that oil appeared to be exiting from are just far more expansive than we may have thought. While many are of the mindset that this pandemic is mostly defeated, the reality in the $USOIL market counteracts that notion as fully untrue. The recovery of $HAL and other oil-related stocks appears, now, to be the longer-term project it was when the $HAL plan was initialized.
Comment: $HAL opened down 32c/sh, but has since rebounded and is up roughly 31c/sh over yesterday's close. Patience must be exercised in the re-positioning. $HAL has closed weaker than the previous day 5 of the last 8 trading sessions, and if today holds it will be 5 of 9. That still lends insight towards a short opportunity, but the reclamation of holdings should probably wait until another -$1.00/share day, which with the erratic oil market is more a matter of "When" than "if."
Comment: Oil is down almost 1% on the day while $HAL is up over 60/c per share. The market picked an odd time to boom, as Halliburton typically falls in reaction to the crude market itself. This presents an odd decision to either now, eat a slight loss on the short failure, or wait longer for a more comprehensive crapping by the $USOIL market. As to which is correct, FULLY UNSURE, to be honest.
Comment: $HAL's increase while OIL itself has failed to top 40 is as perplexing as it is frustrating. This "SHORT" clearly never happened. Eating a loss at roughly $1.38 per share on this losing proposition wasn't fun. That said, the oil trends predicted were pretty spot on: $HAL just has a penchant for disobeying the oil market at times, and that is also why long-term we have been BULLISH on $HAL. This could regain its form of 25 per share by late December, which was the initial thought when the $HAL plan began well under 5 per share Mar 18-20th. Repositioned but for a loss, this might be the last and only attempt to short $HAL while the oil market continues to correct and ameliorate itself in hectic, confusing, fashions - industry-wide. Happy trading???!!


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