HBAR / BTC - Repeating Pattern End of July Update
Our repeating pattern on the daily is dragging out further than originally drawn, and as we all know - the longer we drag along while moving within a range (between the red and green boxes), the larger our eventual move becomes when the chart finally decides upon a direction.
I post multiple ideas*** and latch on to the ones I feel progress best. This is one of those that has progressed really well, though dragging out further - I'm anticipating a strong decision when it does decide.
***See previous updates about this under Related Ideas by scrolling to the very bottom of this page, including the original post suggesting a repeating pattern back on May 17th.***
So, let's talk about how we got here, and where we may be going - first zooming in on the 4H chart, and then a few looks at the weekly now and in the past:
4H chart & impressions:
At the end of the current pattern, following a diamond reversal, we see a head and shoulders. As shown on the 4H chart below, we broke below the neckline forming a bearish target of approx. 368 sats, but.. we failed to stay below the neckline.
Now we've broken back above the neck and have so far managed to stay above it. If this continues, it becomes a failed head and shoulders and and we have instead a bullish target of approx 716-728 sats (or higher).
4H Chart:
Weekly chart & impressions:
Our current 4 weekly candles look a lot like the last 4 that ended in a bullish move that closed around 710 sats and wicked above 820-830 sats, our most recent and highest high. (see more on this with each screenshot below)
Weekly Chart:
That 4th weekly candle ended high, but it began low, wicking down to test the bottom of our green box prior to moving up to make our high (this is a replay of the beginning of that weekly candle, from around May 10th):
Now we are seeing similar behavior from the current weekly candle, which began looking bearish and wicked down to the exact same area at the bottom of the green box:
Conclusions:
- One difference in the current pattern that appears to be repeating vs the previous smaller one, is that the smaller one wicked down to re-test the top of the triangle it originally broke out of, see green circles on main chart from this post. We haven't yet done that, which is why (despite being extremely bullish) I believe that it's still possible we move down to 386 sats. That said, we need to cross back below the neckline of the head and shoulders to get there. However, if this does occur, I think it makes the chart all the more bullish and more likely to break our ATH of 864 and get into price discovery.
- Should the above not occur, we have an interim bullish target of ~716-728 sats. This is bullish, but also puts us in a danger zone with the potential to form a giant head and shoulders pattern on the daily & weekly charts. To avoid this, we need a weekly candle to close above 710 - preferably, break 800 sats and then 864. If we wick up to 716-728 on the weekly but fail to stay there and close closer to mid-to-low 600s, we start to see the possible head and shoulders (however, even that could fail and make us bullish again).
- long-term bull: if we eventually break our ATH of 864 and then manage to cleanly get above 1000, I really like the area of 1350-1450 sats as stopping point while in price discovery.
- long-term bear: if we break down to 368 and don't turn back up quickly as I expect, instead falling further, I see the possibility of a triple bottom forming on the weekly chart (for it to become more bearish than that, we'd need something like a market crash to occur).
I post multiple ideas*** and latch on to the ones I feel progress best. This is one of those that has progressed really well, though dragging out further - I'm anticipating a strong decision when it does decide.
***See previous updates about this under Related Ideas by scrolling to the very bottom of this page, including the original post suggesting a repeating pattern back on May 17th.***
So, let's talk about how we got here, and where we may be going - first zooming in on the 4H chart, and then a few looks at the weekly now and in the past:
4H chart & impressions:
At the end of the current pattern, following a diamond reversal, we see a head and shoulders. As shown on the 4H chart below, we broke below the neckline forming a bearish target of approx. 368 sats, but.. we failed to stay below the neckline.
Now we've broken back above the neck and have so far managed to stay above it. If this continues, it becomes a failed head and shoulders and and we have instead a bullish target of approx 716-728 sats (or higher).
4H Chart:
Weekly chart & impressions:
Our current 4 weekly candles look a lot like the last 4 that ended in a bullish move that closed around 710 sats and wicked above 820-830 sats, our most recent and highest high. (see more on this with each screenshot below)
Weekly Chart:
That 4th weekly candle ended high, but it began low, wicking down to test the bottom of our green box prior to moving up to make our high (this is a replay of the beginning of that weekly candle, from around May 10th):
Now we are seeing similar behavior from the current weekly candle, which began looking bearish and wicked down to the exact same area at the bottom of the green box:
Conclusions:
- One difference in the current pattern that appears to be repeating vs the previous smaller one, is that the smaller one wicked down to re-test the top of the triangle it originally broke out of, see green circles on main chart from this post. We haven't yet done that, which is why (despite being extremely bullish) I believe that it's still possible we move down to 386 sats. That said, we need to cross back below the neckline of the head and shoulders to get there. However, if this does occur, I think it makes the chart all the more bullish and more likely to break our ATH of 864 and get into price discovery.
- Should the above not occur, we have an interim bullish target of ~716-728 sats. This is bullish, but also puts us in a danger zone with the potential to form a giant head and shoulders pattern on the daily & weekly charts. To avoid this, we need a weekly candle to close above 710 - preferably, break 800 sats and then 864. If we wick up to 716-728 on the weekly but fail to stay there and close closer to mid-to-low 600s, we start to see the possible head and shoulders (however, even that could fail and make us bullish again).
- long-term bull: if we eventually break our ATH of 864 and then manage to cleanly get above 1000, I really like the area of 1350-1450 sats as stopping point while in price discovery.
- long-term bear: if we break down to 368 and don't turn back up quickly as I expect, instead falling further, I see the possibility of a triple bottom forming on the weekly chart (for it to become more bearish than that, we'd need something like a market crash to occur).
Related Ideas
