HollyFrontier Long HFC - Bullish divergence on weekly and daily
Holly Frontier Corporation
Bullish divergence on Weekly and Daily
Weekly
To be precise, it’s not a pure divergence. Prices dit not really go lower then the previous bottom. But in light of the global market recovery and the hard hits that the Energy sector went through, it is likely that it will at least pullback during these bullish developments we’re seeing right now, perhaps even a reversal.
The trend is down.
But we did hit the previous bottom only for a very short while, resulting in a down wick. it rejected that price level obviously, there where no more sellers there and the price turned up. Last week the market gapped up and only went higher.
It resulted in a nice channel divergence for sure. Meaning, the previous bottom was around the -5 ATR level, with a lot of power. This down move only went to the -2 ATR level. MACD-H is turning up as well, and diverging, as is Elder Force Index.
Stochastic RSI has crossed up, and %D is turning up as well, coming from an maximum oversold condition.
Only troublesome thing is that the weekly also shows an upwick, to the -1 ATR level but went down again to only close a bit higher then the previous weeks close.
Let’s have a look if we can find more certainties on the daily
Daily
There are two bullish divergences as well here, and the price has risen to above the value zone. After the price turned up, the last candle gave up the gains of the previous day. This is a nice oppurtunity, as long as this does not topping out completely ending the upmove.
Also, Stochastic RSI seems to cross again and it is overbought.
The trade is surely interesting and I will enter in thirds.
The rest will be added by keeping an eye on the 4H chart to see when MACD-H is ticking up again and forming a next higher low on this timeframe, and then decide to add to the trade.
Monthly:
I have checked the monthly as well, and the impulse is turning yellow here, but the candle is only halffway.
It also shows it fell through the support level. This will be a resistance level when this trade pans out.
The trade could become more interesting if we pinch through that level and the monthly will turn up again. It could then become a bigger move to the monthly EMA.
Interesting to keep an eye on this Timeframe as well.
Entry: 1/3 @ 20.87
Stoploss: 18.7
Projected targets:
Target 1: 29.25
Target 2: 33.63
R/R ratio: 1:3.86
R/R ratio: 1:5.88
Note:
As the trade develops, ATR levels change as well. It could be that I move up my targets, as in my trading style, the targets are dynamic.
I will exit in thirds as well. And move a stoploss when a higher low has been formed.
I will try to update the trades here as well, regarding changed targets and stoplosses.
Bullish divergence on Weekly and Daily
Weekly
To be precise, it’s not a pure divergence. Prices dit not really go lower then the previous bottom. But in light of the global market recovery and the hard hits that the Energy sector went through, it is likely that it will at least pullback during these bullish developments we’re seeing right now, perhaps even a reversal.
The trend is down.
But we did hit the previous bottom only for a very short while, resulting in a down wick. it rejected that price level obviously, there where no more sellers there and the price turned up. Last week the market gapped up and only went higher.
It resulted in a nice channel divergence for sure. Meaning, the previous bottom was around the -5 ATR level, with a lot of power. This down move only went to the -2 ATR level. MACD-H is turning up as well, and diverging, as is Elder Force Index.
Stochastic RSI has crossed up, and %D is turning up as well, coming from an maximum oversold condition.
Only troublesome thing is that the weekly also shows an upwick, to the -1 ATR level but went down again to only close a bit higher then the previous weeks close.
Let’s have a look if we can find more certainties on the daily
Daily
There are two bullish divergences as well here, and the price has risen to above the value zone. After the price turned up, the last candle gave up the gains of the previous day. This is a nice oppurtunity, as long as this does not topping out completely ending the upmove.
Also, Stochastic RSI seems to cross again and it is overbought.
The trade is surely interesting and I will enter in thirds.
The rest will be added by keeping an eye on the 4H chart to see when MACD-H is ticking up again and forming a next higher low on this timeframe, and then decide to add to the trade.
Monthly:
I have checked the monthly as well, and the impulse is turning yellow here, but the candle is only halffway.
It also shows it fell through the support level. This will be a resistance level when this trade pans out.
The trade could become more interesting if we pinch through that level and the monthly will turn up again. It could then become a bigger move to the monthly EMA.
Interesting to keep an eye on this Timeframe as well.
Entry: 1/3 @ 20.87
Stoploss: 18.7
Projected targets:
Target 1: 29.25
Target 2: 33.63
R/R ratio: 1:3.86
R/R ratio: 1:5.88
Note:
As the trade develops, ATR levels change as well. It could be that I move up my targets, as in my trading style, the targets are dynamic.
I will exit in thirds as well. And move a stoploss when a higher low has been formed.
I will try to update the trades here as well, regarding changed targets and stoplosses.
Comment:
Stoploss has been lowered to 16.45. R/R ratio is still good, as it was already pretty high.
We went further down, but into another divergence and now curling up again.
As this trade was only entered with one third, we did pretty okay.
I now went in with the full allocated stash.
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