Risk Vs Reward & (the head fake)

Back in my basketball playing days I was almost always able to get my opponent who was defending me to commit and leave his feet by using a head fake or pump fake. While he was coming down, I was going up to launch my jump shot. The NYSE still has specialists, and even though they are not as powerful as the "old"days they still see and set the order book. Before any big move in a stock they almost always have a smaller set up move in the opposite direction (the head fake). I believe yesterday and today's dips in IBM are such a set up move. If I am wrong with a 4% yield and maybe a 2% downside risk, the upside reward of 10% immediately and 100% over 3-5 years, far out ways that risk. Long term investors and traders should buy IBM now. Option traders should buy IBM calls.