mmdandytra
Long

Yield Indonesia Bond 10 Yr should fall soon

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The spread between Indonesia Bond 10Yr with US Treasury 10Yr reached the highest level since the end of 2016. The spread is now at 5.8% wherein the beginning of 2018, the spread is only at 3.6% and 5.4% at the beginning of 2019.

The latest increase of the spread (since Jul'19) is caused by the falling of UST 10Yr at high speed (from 2.1% to 1.5% in just a month!). Investor seems worried that the recession is cooking so they bought Risk-Free Asset such as Government Bond.

The yield of US Treasury 10Yr (now at 1.55%) is soon to meet the lowest level in 2016 at 1.4%. This level is so low that it should act as Support (to hold further falling). Once the yield reached 1.4% (and assuming the Yield of Indonesia Bond 10Yr is still around 7.4%) that makes the spread rise to 6%.

Judging by Indonesia is already at higher Investment Grade level (thanks to recent rating upgraded by S&P to BBB from BBB-) and the proposed government budget for 2020, the should be a Buying Interest soon for Indonesia asset. I believe Yield Indonesia Bond 10Yr could fall to 6.5% or at least 7% from current level at 7.4%.
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