DISCLAIMER
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company that has no idea where it is going or what it is doing.
I also want to say that I spent 20+ hours doing research and writing up a much nicer report, but I do my primary writing in TradingView (like an idiot, and not doing that again), it got deleted so this is draft 2. This is going to be much more breezey, I can't go back and find all those links for sources again, but everything should be easy enough to google.
Thesis/TL;DR
Ideanomics is a strange company; starting as a streaming media company founded by another in a line of WWE McMahon (this one doesn't have any cool gifs). Acquired by Bruno Wu and changed to Ideanomics, what is called an EV and fintech, a company pushing green forward, is nothing more than a bizarre holding company for an eccentric billionaire who has damaged his own business ventures.
Ideanomics is prone to extreme impulses via PR statements released by the company, and general other market activities. There is definitely money to be made in the day trading game, but I will be sitting this one out, forever.
The best move forward for Ideanomics is a split of its EV technology and "Fintech", and for Bruno Wu to be removed from the board completely, not just leaving his role as CEO. As long as he is involved, the company is prone to his grand delusions.
Chart Analysis
Let me start with this, I use psychology to analyze charts more than mathematics. The lines of the chart are the chaotic happenings of thousands of minds briefly intertwining in a marketplace; it is the shareholders we should study to view the capabilities of the stock. A major issue with Ideanomics is the float, about 10% can be accounted by insiders and institutions as of current data. That is about 320 million shares in the float unaccounted for, and without bloomberg terminal, I am not going to figure it out. We see massive swings with nominal volume of 20-50 million throughout an impulse, which means I don't know who has all the rest of the shares.
What I believe I see in this chart are multiple populations, from the multiple cycles Ideanomics has gone through, via pump and dumps and major transformations. I believe there are 2 main populations, one declining dictated by the red dashed line, and one growing by the green dashed line (where both of these lines are their respective channel ceilings). With that said, the future holds the promise of pump and dumps, driven by the company or those surrounding it. I predict those to be capped within the yellow lines.
Imminent Pump & Dump Danger
Citadel and Susquehanna have a considerable amount of calls & puts on this, with more puts than calls, and Susq with 2% of the float. These 2 have worked together to perform these pump and dumps before, how the SEC lets them get away with it I have no clue. Expect the next pump and dump cycle to be rocky. The only link I will share here is this: www.quiverquant.com/dashboard/IDEX/
We see a lot of twitter buzz, WSB pushes, etc surrounding the previous pump and dumps. What we also see is a huge amount of Fail to Delivers around these peaks, which means this is being shorted by someone who can't come up with enough shares to pay them back, or just doesn't want to. While the share count seems high, there still is a 300+ million float. I really can't stress enough that this stock doesn't smell right. I rely on my intuition, and everything is screaming at me to stay away from this one.
Holdings/Bull Case
There is no bull case. There might be some genuine diamonds in the rough among Ideanomics' holdings, but they will be pulled down by the dead weight among it, and driven into the ground by the lack of competency at the highest levels of Ideanomics management (likely going all the way down).
I won't go through the holdings specifically, but it breaks down like this:
While some of these have potential, remember that you aren’t investing in the underlying holdings, you are investing in the whims of a billionaire.
Bear Theory
You are investing in the whims of a billionaire. This isn't a fintech-ev-green focused future, this is a holding company for whatever tickles Bruno Wu's fancy. Or at least until December 2020 when he stepped down to focus on a more advisory role of the EV business (dude probably just wanted to drive his race cars). So whatever happens now is anyone's guess. Does Wu leaving the helm give this ragtag team of punching-above-their-weight-class gophers a chance to pull off a hail Mary and deliver a real direction to these random assortment of holdings?
No. They are going to sell what they have, keep it going as long as they can, take one final hit and jump off the ship.
Or at least that is my guess. They could pull it off, but if I had to bet money on it, I would have to pass. Which is what I am genuinely suggesting here. I feel this strongly I literally rewrote this, pulled everything I could from memory and put this up as a warning post for danger ahead.
DISCLAIMER
I am going to be real honest with you; congratulations for getting to the end. Thank you for your time, I hope it was worth it. If you have any suggestions, I would love to hear it. Please don’t make an investment decision on my information alone, always double check. I am not a financial analyst, I do not get paid to write any of this, and I do not have an investment in IDEX or it's stock price. Thanks.
This is in no way, shape or form, fluid and function, an analytical, qualitative or intelligent compte rendu. I am obviously not rich, so obviously I haven't made it with my own thinking, so definitely don't put faith in me. But maybe read and learn some things about a company that has no idea where it is going or what it is doing.
I also want to say that I spent 20+ hours doing research and writing up a much nicer report, but I do my primary writing in TradingView (like an idiot, and not doing that again), it got deleted so this is draft 2. This is going to be much more breezey, I can't go back and find all those links for sources again, but everything should be easy enough to google.
Thesis/TL;DR
Ideanomics is a strange company; starting as a streaming media company founded by another in a line of WWE McMahon (this one doesn't have any cool gifs). Acquired by Bruno Wu and changed to Ideanomics, what is called an EV and fintech, a company pushing green forward, is nothing more than a bizarre holding company for an eccentric billionaire who has damaged his own business ventures.
Ideanomics is prone to extreme impulses via PR statements released by the company, and general other market activities. There is definitely money to be made in the day trading game, but I will be sitting this one out, forever.
The best move forward for Ideanomics is a split of its EV technology and "Fintech", and for Bruno Wu to be removed from the board completely, not just leaving his role as CEO. As long as he is involved, the company is prone to his grand delusions.
Chart Analysis
Let me start with this, I use psychology to analyze charts more than mathematics. The lines of the chart are the chaotic happenings of thousands of minds briefly intertwining in a marketplace; it is the shareholders we should study to view the capabilities of the stock. A major issue with Ideanomics is the float, about 10% can be accounted by insiders and institutions as of current data. That is about 320 million shares in the float unaccounted for, and without bloomberg terminal, I am not going to figure it out. We see massive swings with nominal volume of 20-50 million throughout an impulse, which means I don't know who has all the rest of the shares.
What I believe I see in this chart are multiple populations, from the multiple cycles Ideanomics has gone through, via pump and dumps and major transformations. I believe there are 2 main populations, one declining dictated by the red dashed line, and one growing by the green dashed line (where both of these lines are their respective channel ceilings). With that said, the future holds the promise of pump and dumps, driven by the company or those surrounding it. I predict those to be capped within the yellow lines.
Imminent Pump & Dump Danger
Citadel and Susquehanna have a considerable amount of calls & puts on this, with more puts than calls, and Susq with 2% of the float. These 2 have worked together to perform these pump and dumps before, how the SEC lets them get away with it I have no clue. Expect the next pump and dump cycle to be rocky. The only link I will share here is this: www.quiverquant.com/dashboard/IDEX/
We see a lot of twitter buzz, WSB pushes, etc surrounding the previous pump and dumps. What we also see is a huge amount of Fail to Delivers around these peaks, which means this is being shorted by someone who can't come up with enough shares to pay them back, or just doesn't want to. While the share count seems high, there still is a 300+ million float. I really can't stress enough that this stock doesn't smell right. I rely on my intuition, and everything is screaming at me to stay away from this one.
Holdings/Bull Case
There is no bull case. There might be some genuine diamonds in the rough among Ideanomics' holdings, but they will be pulled down by the dead weight among it, and driven into the ground by the lack of competency at the highest levels of Ideanomics management (likely going all the way down).
I won't go through the holdings specifically, but it breaks down like this:
- Fintech; Delaware board of trade (dbot): It’s a penny stock exchange, had little to no regulations, so most of it was bogus. It was extremely profitable, making ~90% of revenue for Ideanomics, before it was shut down for no reason in 2020 by the CEO. Something tells me it was shut down voluntarily before it was shut down otherwise.
- Fintech; TM2: It’s a precious metals futures exchange pretty much. While the idea is novel, and these metals are a great investment, I wouldn't trust this business, nor Ideanomics with a dime. Being completely new and novel can be amazing, but in this space, it is bound to get dragged down by the SEC at the drop of a hat, if not pulled offline by Bruno himself.
- Fintech; Timios: This looks like it could be a viable platform, focusing on simplifying/webifying title and escrow services, and with a small name already handling >$1 billion in real estate a month, what are the profit margins on this? This could grow and be nice, but it isn't worth investing in this platform when I am forced to invest in all the other bullshit.
- EV all together: Some of these are cool, could be cool, but between Tesla and other cutting edge automobile companies, or Harvey coming with their own EV bikes, putting any value on these has to be bundled by the rest. Furthermore, one of these (Silk) isn't even a real company, its hiring, why its here I don’t know.
While some of these have potential, remember that you aren’t investing in the underlying holdings, you are investing in the whims of a billionaire.
Bear Theory
You are investing in the whims of a billionaire. This isn't a fintech-ev-green focused future, this is a holding company for whatever tickles Bruno Wu's fancy. Or at least until December 2020 when he stepped down to focus on a more advisory role of the EV business (dude probably just wanted to drive his race cars). So whatever happens now is anyone's guess. Does Wu leaving the helm give this ragtag team of punching-above-their-weight-class gophers a chance to pull off a hail Mary and deliver a real direction to these random assortment of holdings?
No. They are going to sell what they have, keep it going as long as they can, take one final hit and jump off the ship.
Or at least that is my guess. They could pull it off, but if I had to bet money on it, I would have to pass. Which is what I am genuinely suggesting here. I feel this strongly I literally rewrote this, pulled everything I could from memory and put this up as a warning post for danger ahead.
DISCLAIMER
I am going to be real honest with you; congratulations for getting to the end. Thank you for your time, I hope it was worth it. If you have any suggestions, I would love to hear it. Please don’t make an investment decision on my information alone, always double check. I am not a financial analyst, I do not get paid to write any of this, and I do not have an investment in IDEX or it's stock price. Thanks.