We still have a fairly nice down channel
(not perfect but what is about TA). IFFFFF we are forming a 5 wave down start to a new major market then I believe most likely we have just completed wave 4 of 5. If so wave wave 4 is an irregular flat where the B wave is 1.27 x A which is not rare fib relationship. Wave 4 represents a .38 correction of waves 0-3. Often wave 5 has a fib relationship to either wave 1 or 3. Some possible examples are noted on the chart. If you factor in possible support from the channel bottom line and middle line and the previous support around 103.5 (marked X) you get the target box highlighted in yellow. There is a projection technique described using reversals in the RSI
. Using this approach (vertical black arrows) we get a target of about 99-100. So my best guess, if the market continues down from here, would be it will go to about 99-101.5 before a good size correction. Another option is we actually have a 1-2, .1-.2 formation with wave 3 down just starting. IFFFFFF that is the case could be major downsize ahead going below the channel. Seems less likely given the generally bullish
time of year and the talk of a possible new QE
but the market seems to like to surprise. Take care. Enjoy the weekend. Good trading next week.