IWM daily - falling wedge exhausting - 2/12/2016

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I have been expecting a short term bottom for a while so far not materialized. With the failing wedge exhausting, and RSI diverging, a counter trend rally case is still there (like $107 level). But before that can even happen, It will have to break out the wedge as a very first step.
Way too soon for this, it needs to consolidate outside your trendline. The bottom we just put in needs to be tested and failed still. Would look to buy it after it crosses 102 and comes back there for support. 20 days from now would be the soonest I see it completing that pattern. Honestly think this wedge looks very bearish.
CosmicDust mazer_rackham
Thanks for the comment. Yes - I tend to be more aggressive and some times I regret. Still learning...
mazer_rackham CosmicDust
I think you're much further along than I am... I'm trying to learn myself... I recently have gone back and reviewed some of my trades from a weekly perspective as I traded mostly from the daily, and have seen that if I use line charts with dots at each close, and then draw a trend line from peak to peak and wait until the price breaks it going horizontally it would have improved my trading much. I'm trying to code exactly how I define the trend line and how exactly I define "consolidation" outside the line, but with back-testing I could really improve because it would allow me the confidence to stick with a hard and fast rule, whereas without back testing, I dont' have confidence in any exact rule, only a desire to not miss the trade, I find my emotions are much better at predicting the success of the trade than the logic or the mechanics, but sometimes I'm too early and too late at the same time. There are many times I'll be looking at a frozen price and staring in disbelief, that is the moment to snag it. There are other times I'm in a position and uneasy and not wanting to exit too early and see it go up with out me, that is the time to sell. I definitely think I've gained some good experience just by doing and see and know I can do better, but also know its so hard to do better when the time is there to act. Just some friendly ramblings, but hope we can discuss ideas together, I've been impressed with your work. Thanks for sharing your ideas.

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