Summary: The price of oil was the only winner on the first day of March. Investors fled for safe havens as Brent Oil surged 9% and topped $100 a barrel.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Tuesday, March 1, 2022
Facts: -1.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 55% Red
Good: Stayed above Friday's low
Bad: Lower high, lower low from Monday, decline on higher volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Medium red body in middle of candle, longer lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.63, Three declining stocks for every two advancing
Indexes: SPX (-1.55%), DJI (-1.76%), RUT (-1.93%), VIX (+10.51%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) at the top. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
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Market Overview
The price of oil was the only winner on the first day of March. Investors fled for safe havens as Brent Oil surged 9% and topped $100 a barrel.
The Nasdaq declined -1.59% on slightly higher volume than Monday, which was already high. The 55% red body sits in the middle of the candle. The slightly longer lower wick formed from a short rally just before close. The rest of the day was mostly selling. The closing range was low at 27% and there were three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
Small-caps had the worst losses, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -1.93%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.76%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.55%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +10.51% having its highest close since January 2021.
Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +1.01%) advanced. Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) was the next best sector, followed by defensive sectors. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for February showed a pickup in activity, registering 58.6 against the forecast of 58.0.
The US Dollar (USD) index rose sharply, increasing by +0.67%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined while the gap between long-term and short-term yields remained about the same. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices improved. When HYG moves opposite Treasury prices, the outlook is dimming.
Gold and Silver prices also soared. Gold reached its highest point since January 2021.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.719. Perhaps some investors see a temporary pullback here. The CNN Fear & Greed index is well into the Extreme Fear range.
All big six mega-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant loss, declining by -3.72%.
Chevron (CVX) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising by +3.97%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -4.85%.
On the Daily Update Growth List, Workday (WDAY) was the top performer, rising +4.92% after beating earnings expectations and providing positive guidance. Sea Limited (SE) disappointed investors with a higher than expected loss per share. The stock plunged to the bottom of the growth list, losing -13.12% today.
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Looking ahead
ADP Nonfarm Employment change for February will be available before the market opens on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak around 10 am. Crude Oil Inventories data come mid-morning.
Veeva Systems (VEEV), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Splunk (SPLK), and Box Inc (BOX) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq was not able to break through the 13,800 resistance area in the morning, declining thru the rest of the day before a quick rally before the close.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.53% gain for Wednesday.
The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high point to a -2.02% decline.
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Wrap-up
The outlook for the economy dimmed as oil prices soared today. The reaction could be felt by investors moving into safe havens such as the US Dollar and Treasury Bonds as well as Gold and Silver. High Yield Corporate Bond prices dropped, signaling the lower outlook for US companies amid the higher oil prices.
Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow and investors will listen closely to how the Fed might react to the crisis in Ukraine, soaring oil prices, and what it might mean for inflation and the economy.
The expectation is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Tuesday, March 1, 2022
Facts: -1.59%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 27%, Body: 55% Red
Good: Stayed above Friday's low
Bad: Lower high, lower low from Monday, decline on higher volume
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Medium red body in middle of candle, longer lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.63, Three declining stocks for every two advancing
Indexes: SPX (-1.55%), DJI (-1.76%), RUT (-1.93%), VIX (+10.51%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +1.01%) and Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) at the top. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Lower
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
The price of oil was the only winner on the first day of March. Investors fled for safe havens as Brent Oil surged 9% and topped $100 a barrel.
The Nasdaq declined -1.59% on slightly higher volume than Monday, which was already high. The 55% red body sits in the middle of the candle. The slightly longer lower wick formed from a short rally just before close. The rest of the day was mostly selling. The closing range was low at 27% and there were three declining stocks for every advancing stock.
Small-caps had the worst losses, with the Russell 2000 (RUT) declining by -1.93%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -1.76%. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost -1.55%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +10.51% having its highest close since January 2021.
Of the eleven S&P 500 sectors, only Energy (XLE +1.01%) advanced. Real Estate (XLRE -0.20%) was the next best sector, followed by defensive sectors. Materials (XLB -2.30%) and Financials (XLF -3.69%) were at the bottom of the sector list.
The ISM Manufacturing Index for February showed a pickup in activity, registering 58.6 against the forecast of 58.0.
The US Dollar (USD) index rose sharply, increasing by +0.67%. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all declined while the gap between long-term and short-term yields remained about the same. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices improved. When HYG moves opposite Treasury prices, the outlook is dimming.
Gold and Silver prices also soared. Gold reached its highest point since January 2021.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) declined to 0.719. Perhaps some investors see a temporary pullback here. The CNN Fear & Greed index is well into the Extreme Fear range.
All big six mega-caps declined. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant loss, declining by -3.72%.
Chevron (CVX) was the top mega-cap for the day, rising by +3.97%. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list, dropping by -4.85%.
On the Daily Update Growth List, Workday (WDAY) was the top performer, rising +4.92% after beating earnings expectations and providing positive guidance. Sea Limited (SE) disappointed investors with a higher than expected loss per share. The stock plunged to the bottom of the growth list, losing -13.12% today.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
ADP Nonfarm Employment change for February will be available before the market opens on Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak around 10 am. Crude Oil Inventories data come mid-morning.
Veeva Systems (VEEV), Dollar Tree (DLTR), Splunk (SPLK), and Box Inc (BOX) are among the earnings reports for tomorrow.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq was not able to break through the 13,800 resistance area in the morning, declining thru the rest of the day before a quick rally before the close.
If the index returns to the five-day trend line, it would mean a +2.53% gain for Wednesday.
The one-day trend line and the trend line from the 2/10 high point to a -2.02% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
The outlook for the economy dimmed as oil prices soared today. The reaction could be felt by investors moving into safe havens such as the US Dollar and Treasury Bonds as well as Gold and Silver. High Yield Corporate Bond prices dropped, signaling the lower outlook for US companies amid the higher oil prices.
Jerome Powell will speak tomorrow and investors will listen closely to how the Fed might react to the crisis in Ukraine, soaring oil prices, and what it might mean for inflation and the economy.
The expectation is Sideways or Lower.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
