Summary: Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Thursday, March 3, 2022
Facts: -1.56%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 82% Red
Good: Higher high. Reduced volume on lower close
Bad: Big red body, low closing range, lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-1.29%), VIX (-0.85%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
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Market Overview
Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies.
The Nasdaq fell by -1.56%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 82% red body with no upper wick. The 18% closing range comes after a small lower wick formed in the last thirty minutes of the open market. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.29%, helped by strength in large cap companies in safe-haven sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.52%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.29%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -0.85% today.
Seven of eleven sectors ended the day in the positive, dominated by the safe-haven / defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) were the top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) were that the bottom.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than the previous week and less than forecast, coming in at 215,000 compared to the expected 226,000. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was lower than forecast, registering 56.5 against the forecast of 61.0.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.38%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the US 2y Yield gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil remains high at around $110 per barrel. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise sharply.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.826. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3.
All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) which has led both rallies and pullbacks declined the most, falling by -4.61%.
Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +2.30%. Shell (SHEL) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.99%.
Only two of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Beyond Meat (BYND) and Zynga (ZNGA) advanced +1.11% and +0.22%. Three stocks dropped more than 10%. Cloudflare (NET), MongoDB (MDB), and Snowflake (SNOW) dropped by -13.19%, -14.26%, and -15.37%, respectively.
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Looking ahead
Payrolls data and the Unemployment rate for February will be available before the market opens tomorrow.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The index touched above the 21d EMA this morning, but then receded back to around 13,500.
The five-day trend line points to a +0.89% advance for Friday.
The one-day trend line and trend line from the 2/10 high end with a -1.28% decline.
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Wrap-up
The Ukraine crisis is driving more fears of inflation, but Jerome Powell promises to keep with the plan of a quarter-point rate hike in March. Still, the market is driven by the more immediate fear of the war intensifying.
The outside day is representative of the hope and the fear in the market now. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Thursday, March 3, 2022
Facts: -1.56%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 18%, Body: 82% Red
Good: Higher high. Reduced volume on lower close
Bad: Big red body, low closing range, lower low
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Lower low
Candle: Mostly red body with a small lower wick
Advance/Decline: 0.57, almost two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.53%), DJI (-0.29%), RUT (-1.29%), VIX (-0.85%)
Sector List: Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
Oil prices continued to raise inflation fears on Thursday, causing stocks to slide. Commodity prices are also rising as the war in Ukraine intensifies.
The Nasdaq fell by -1.56%. Volume was lower than the previous day. The candle has an 82% red body with no upper wick. The 18% closing range comes after a small lower wick formed in the last thirty minutes of the open market. There were nearly two declining stocks for every advancing stock.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) lost only -0.29%, helped by strength in large cap companies in safe-haven sectors. The S&P 500 (SPX) declined -0.52%. The Russell 2000 (RUT) lost -1.29%. The VIX Volatility Index remains elevated but declined by -0.85% today.
Seven of eleven sectors ended the day in the positive, dominated by the safe-haven / defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +1.76%) and Real Estate (XLRE +1.09%) were the top sectors. Technology (XLK -1.19%) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY -2.26%) were that the bottom.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were lower than the previous week and less than forecast, coming in at 215,000 compared to the expected 226,000. The ISM Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index was lower than forecast, registering 56.5 against the forecast of 61.0.
The US Dollar index (DXY) rose another +0.38%. US 30y and 10y Treasury yields declined while the US 2y Yield gained. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices fell. Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices advanced. Brent Oil remains high at around $110 per barrel. Copper and Aluminum futures continue to rise sharply.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) increased to 0.826. The CNN Fear & Greed index remained in Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3.
All big six mega-caps declined. Tesla (TSLA) which has led both rallies and pullbacks declined the most, falling by -4.61%.
Walmart (WMT) was the top mega-cap for the day, advancing +2.30%. Shell (SHEL) was at the bottom of the mega-cap list, declining -5.99%.
Only two of the Daily Update Growth List stocks gained. Beyond Meat (BYND) and Zynga (ZNGA) advanced +1.11% and +0.22%. Three stocks dropped more than 10%. Cloudflare (NET), MongoDB (MDB), and Snowflake (SNOW) dropped by -13.19%, -14.26%, and -15.37%, respectively.
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Looking ahead
Payrolls data and the Unemployment rate for February will be available before the market opens tomorrow.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The index touched above the 21d EMA this morning, but then receded back to around 13,500.
The five-day trend line points to a +0.89% advance for Friday.
The one-day trend line and trend line from the 2/10 high end with a -1.28% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
The Ukraine crisis is driving more fears of inflation, but Jerome Powell promises to keep with the plan of a quarter-point rate hike in March. Still, the market is driven by the more immediate fear of the war intensifying.
The outside day is representative of the hope and the fear in the market now. The expectation for tomorrow is Sideways.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
