Summary: Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Friday, March 4, 2022
Facts: -1.66%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 54% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Distribution on higher volume, barely within yesterday's range
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Longer lower wick, most candle below yesterday's candle
Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.79%), DJI (-0.53%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+4.92%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.89%) and Utilities (XLU +2.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
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Market Overview
Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising.
The Nasdaq fell -1.66% on higher volume than the previous day, marking another session of distribution by institutions. The candle is almost entirely below the previous days candle. The longer lower wick formed from two intraday dips and a rally in the final minutes of the session. There is a short upper wick above the 54% red body and a 34% closing range. More than two stocks declined for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.79% and -0.53%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.92%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.89%) topped the list followed by the four defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.21%) was second on the list. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) were at the bottom.
Jobs data was very positive with Nonfarm Payrolls rising 678,000 in February compared to the forecast of 400,000, driven mostly by private payrolls. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% against the expectation of 3.9%.
The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with the index (DXY) rising +0.80% today. Treasury yields showed a bleak outlook, with long-term yields dropping sharply while short-term yields dropped less significantly, the gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowing. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Brent Oil topped $115 a gallon, reaching its highest price since 2013. Copper and Aluminum futures, as well as many commodities, continue to rise sharply.
The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.828. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped further into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3 this week.
All big six mega-caps endured another day of losses. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining by only -0.12%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, dropping by -3.28%.
Of all mega-caps, Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the best gain, climbing by +3.76% to top the mega-cap list. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.78% decline.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List ended the day with gains. Chewy (CHWY) advanced by +2.91% and GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained by +0.13%. There were plenty of big losers in the list. At the bottom of the list was DoorDash (DASH), declining -11.62% today, perhaps on concerns over higher fuel costs.
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Looking ahead
There is not much economic news to kick off the week on Monday. All eyes will remain on the Ukraine war.
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
All three trend lines point to a decline for Monday with an average of -0.30%.
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Wrap-up
Let's hope and pray for some good news over the weekend on the war in Ukraine. Not for the market, but for the people who are in danger as their homes and neighborhoods are bombarded with missiles and heavy artillery. Take care of yourself and your family during these very scary times.
The expectation for the Nasdaq for Monday is Lower.
Stay healthy and stay safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Friday, March 4, 2022
Facts: -1.66%, Volume higher, Closing Range: 34%, Body: 54% Red
Good: Nothing
Bad: Distribution on higher volume, barely within yesterday's range
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Longer lower wick, most candle below yesterday's candle
Advance/Decline: 0.42, more than two declining stocks for every advancing stock
Indexes: SPX (-0.79%), DJI (-0.53%), RUT (-1.55%), VIX (+4.92%)
Sector List: Energy (XLE +2.89%) and Utilities (XLU +2.21%) at the top. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Lower
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
Good economic news isn't enough to overcome market fears about the crisis in Ukraine. The US dollar and safe havens soared higher today while oil and commodity markets also continue rising.
The Nasdaq fell -1.66% on higher volume than the previous day, marking another session of distribution by institutions. The candle is almost entirely below the previous days candle. The longer lower wick formed from two intraday dips and a rally in the final minutes of the session. There is a short upper wick above the 54% red body and a 34% closing range. More than two stocks declined for every advancing stock.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) fell -1.55%. The S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) declined by -0.79% and -0.53%. The VIX Volatility Index rose by +4.92%.
Five of the eleven S&P 500 sectors gained. Energy (XLE +2.89%) topped the list followed by the four defensive sectors. Utilities (XLU +2.21%) was second on the list. Technology (XLK -1.75%) and Financials (XLF -1.87%) were at the bottom.
Jobs data was very positive with Nonfarm Payrolls rising 678,000 in February compared to the forecast of 400,000, driven mostly by private payrolls. The Unemployment Rate fell to 3.8% against the expectation of 3.9%.
The US Dollar continued to strengthen, with the index (DXY) rising +0.80% today. Treasury yields showed a bleak outlook, with long-term yields dropping sharply while short-term yields dropped less significantly, the gap between long-term and short-term yields narrowing. High Yield (HYG) Corporate Bond prices declined while Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices rose. Silver and Gold rose sharply. Brent Oil topped $115 a gallon, reaching its highest price since 2013. Copper and Aluminum futures, as well as many commodities, continue to rise sharply.
The put/call ratio rose slightly to 0.828. The CNN Fear & Greed Index dropped further into Extreme Fear. The NAAIM money manager exposure index moved lower to 30.3 this week.
All big six mega-caps endured another day of losses. Tesla (TSLA) held up the best, declining by only -0.12%. Nvidia (NVDA) had the most significant decline, dropping by -3.28%.
Of all mega-caps, Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the best gain, climbing by +3.76% to top the mega-cap list. ASML Holding (ASML) was at the bottom of the list with a -5.78% decline.
Only two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List ended the day with gains. Chewy (CHWY) advanced by +2.91% and GrowGeneration (GRWG) gained by +0.13%. There were plenty of big losers in the list. At the bottom of the list was DoorDash (DASH), declining -11.62% today, perhaps on concerns over higher fuel costs.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
There is not much economic news to kick off the week on Monday. All eyes will remain on the Ukraine war.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
All three trend lines point to a decline for Monday with an average of -0.30%.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
Let's hope and pray for some good news over the weekend on the war in Ukraine. Not for the market, but for the people who are in danger as their homes and neighborhoods are bombarded with missiles and heavy artillery. Take care of yourself and your family during these very scary times.
The expectation for the Nasdaq for Monday is Lower.
Stay healthy and stay safe!
