The Market Week in Review is my weekend homework where I look over what happened in the previous week and what might come in the next week. It helps me evaluate my observations, recognize new data points, and create a plan for possible scenarios in the future.
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas.
The structure is the following:
If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day.
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Monday, December 21, 2020
You better watch out. You better not cry.
Facts: -0.10%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 65%
Good: Support at 12,500, close near highs
Bad: Gap down at open, LH/LL
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Gap down to upside reversal, tiny upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks
Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.81%). All other sectors lost. Energy (XLE -3.22%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The Nasdaq opened with a gap down as investors looked nervously upon a new mutant COVID virus in the UK that shut down travel and crushed European indexes. The lows of the day were short lived and the Nasdaq climbed to afternoon highs that almost went above Friday's close. Stock prices recovered on enthusiasm for a stimulus bill passing in congress. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.10% loss, a sideways move compared to the morning lows. Volume was lower than Friday's huge volume, but still above average volume. The closing range of 96% and a 65% green body make it a bullish day despite the small loss. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks, something that we'll watch for change later this week.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Up on the housetop, reindeer pause.
Facts: +0.51%, Volume higher, Closing range: 78%, Body: 16%
Good: New ATH, close higher than open, higher volume
Bad: Dip after morning high
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Opening gap filled by long lower wick, small body in upper part of candle
Advance/Decline: 1.20, more advancing stocks than declining stocks
Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.87%) and Real Estate (+0.70%) were top. Energy (XLE -1.68%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The Nasdaq opened a positive session with a gap up driven by optimism for the recovering economy. GDP data came in higher than expected and the stimulus bill is passing through congress with some certainty of passing. That optimism was tempered a bit mid-morning after Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales data was lower than expected. Eventually the bulls came back in and the index gained 0.51% for the day on higher volume. The closing range was 78% and the 16% green body is in the upper half of the candle. More stocks advanced than declined.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Oh, bring us a figgy pudding.
Facts: -0.29%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 77%
Good: Higher high and Higher low, bulls held the gap
Bad: Bearish candle, Sell-off near close
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: A full red-body candle with short wicks, closes within the gap from Mon/Tue.
Advance/Decline: 1.72, three advancing for every two declining stock
Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.65%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.95) and Technology (XLK -0.76%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways
All things considered, it could have been a lot worse. Trump's threats to veto the stimulus bill seemed to have little impact at open. Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected. Despite a dip in personal spending and new home sales, the Nasdaq rose through the morning to make a new all-time high in the afternoon. It then turned and sold off sharply in the final minutes before close.
The index finished down -0.29% on higher volume. The closing range of 15% and 77% red body show a bearish day. On the positive side, bulls held the gap created between Monday and Tuesdays session and there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Have yourself a merry little Christmas
Facts: +0.26%, Volume lower, Closing range: 56%, Body: 20%
Good: Stayed within tight range, despite bad news on stimulus
Bad: Not much
Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low
Candle: Inside day, thing body in middle of candle counts for an indecisive session
Advance/Decline: 0.95, about even advancing and declining stocks
Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.98%) and Utilities (XLU +0.71%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.52) was the worst performing, the only losing sector.
Expectation: Sideways
Merry Christmas Eve! The shortened session for the Nasdaq was mostly indecisive with the close just above the open and about an even amount of advancing and declining stocks. Investors didn't seem to worried with bad news around the stimulus, possibly helped by good news from Europe on a Brexit deal. The index closed with a +0.26% gain with a 56% closing range and a 20% green body in the middle of the candle. The volume was lower as expected.
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The Meaning of Life (View on the Week)
Merry Christmas!
The short trading week was not without excitement. There was good news and bad news for the pandemic, the stimulus bill and Brexit agreements. The Nasdaq rode the news up and down but eventually closed the week with a +0.38% gain. The closing range of 88% and 66% green body show another bullish week in a long rally.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to outperform the other indexes with a +1.72% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.07% while the S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.17% for the week. The VIX volatility index dropped -0.19%, but had a wild week with a high 50% above the close due to Monday's volatile open.
Monday started with a gap-down caused by fresh lockdowns in Europe after a new mutant of the COVID virus emerged in the UK. The gap-down turned into a fairly bullish session as the indexes recovered much of the morning losses in the afternoon. The big day for growth investors was Tuesday, powered by an agreement in congress on the final stimulus bill.
Those hopes would be soon squashed as President Trump declared he would veto the bill, calling it a "disgrace". But that there was a silver lining in that stimulus checks might actually be bigger if Trump got his way. Wednesday's session saw Financials and Energy sectors take the lead.
Thursday's short session was muted on lower volume. Republicans in congress rejected the idea of bigger stimulus checks, risking a potential government shutdown come Monday. There was a bit of defensiveness in the market as we head into a long weekend but there was not a big sell-off on the bad news. Overall, the day was indecisive in direction to end the week.
The weekly chart shows the rally that we've had since the beginning of November. The average closing range for the last eight weeks is 77%, with each of the last 5 weeks resulted in a higher high and a higher low for the week. Despite some distribution days along the way, the market is still clearly in an uptrend.
Financials ( XLF ) was the big winner of the week. The fed stress test last week resulted in banks being allowed to resume share buy bank programs, giving some tailwinds to the sector.
Technology ( XLK ) took the lead on Tuesday, but fell back into second place at the open on Wednesday.
All other sectors underperformed the S&P 500 for the week.
Energy ( XLE ) was the leading sector for Wednesday's session but was the worst performing sector on the other days, coming in last for the week.
US Treasury Bond Yields dropped for the week. The spreads between long term and short term bonds tightened slightly. The US 30y and US 10y yields are both in uptrends as investors are not interested in the long term bonds. The US 2y yield is in a sideways to downward trend.
Prices for corporate bonds (HYG) continues to trend upward while short-term treasury bond prices (IEI) continue to move sideways, signaling confidence in the economy from investors.
The US dollar (DXY) advanced +0.1% for the week. The dollar is at a support/resistance area formed in the first quarter of 2018.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.670. The level is more comfortable than the overly bullish levels seen in recent weeks. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction.
Silver (SILVER) was up +0.03% for the week while Gold (GOLD) declined -0.10% for the week. Crude Oil was down -1.17% as fears of new lockdowns caused oil futures to drop. Timber (WOOD) was down -0.75%. Copper (COPPER!1) pulled back with a -1.65% loss while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -1.85%. These commodities show a little less bullishness in the market than the previous week, but are still in good upward trends. Speculative data to be released on Monday will show more insight into investor sentiment in the commodities.
Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) closed the week with a loss, declining -0.90% for the week. Apple (AAPL) had a big week, gaining +4.20% after news of an electric vehicle caused a gap-up at Tuesday open. Alphabet was up +0.46% for the week, but could not close the week above its 10w moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.90%.
Tesla (TSLA) dipped almost 12% after Monday's addition to the S&P 500, but regained ground later in the week to close the week with a -4.78% loss.
Peloton (PTON) gapped up on Tuesday after announcing they would acquire Pecor. The acquisition brings them additional manufacturing growth while targeting existing Pecor customers for subscription growth.
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The Week Ahead
Data on speculative positions in commodities will be released on Monday. The speculative positions among investors can show sentiment for future growth areas in the economic recovery.
Tuesday will bring an update on Consumer Confidence for December, while Pending Home Sales data will be released on Wednesday.
Markets will be closed on Friday for the New Year's Holiday.
There are no notable earnings reports in the next week.
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The Bullish Side
Another week of higher highs and higher lows.
The equity markets continue to hold up even as bad news could have a negative impact. Monday was a great example. In the face of new pandemic lockdowns and travel restrictions in Europe, the US markets gapped-down but then quickly recovered during the day. The continuation of QE from the Fed and the promise of new stimulus is keeping the markets from overreacting on the downside.
GDP came in higher than expected, showing the economic engine is recovering faster than previously thought.
US Treasury Bonds yields continue to trend higher as investors are not interested in the safe haven asset. Corporate Bond yields trend lower, signaling confidence in the US economic recovery and the ability for companies to weather the short term challenges. Even defensive plays in equities, such as the Utilities sector, were not seen this past week despite heading into a long holiday weekend.
The US Dollar rose a bit this week as the Euro declined on the new lockdown news. However, it continues to trade near the 2018 lows, giving a boost to large multi-national companies that can benefit from a lower valued greenback.
A new vote on the stimulus will come on Monday. Passing the stimulus will build on investor confidence as we move into the new year.
With the huge gains that many investors incurred in this year, we can expect they want to hold until January before selling. That may be a bad omen for January, but can be bullish support for the coming week.
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The Bearish Side
The stimulus bill in congress has another vote coming on Monday. A vote against the bill could sour investor sentiment for the economy. On top of that, it makes a government shutdown almost inevitable. Although shutdowns don't always negatively impact the stock market, it could result in a short-term negative reaction.
Even as vaccine distribution continues, hospitals are fearing a surge in severe coronavirus cases after the holidays. New outbreaks and over-capacity in hospitals could prompt new lockdowns in epicenter areas. Any evidence of the mutant virus from the UK, could cause a reaction in markets.
Consumer Confidence, Personal Spending and Existing/New Homes Sales dipped more than expected this past week. That could signal a holiday shopping season that was more negatively impacted than expected for retailers. The lack of stimulus checks would put more downward pressure on consumer spending.
After several weeks of higher highs and higher lows, the market could be due for more of a pullback. The 50d moving average line is about 6.5% below Thursday's close.
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Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch
There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side:
On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags:
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Wrap-up
Here comes the last trading week of 2020. Although the gains have been many this past year, let's hope for a little less drama in 2021.
Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
If you find this helpful, please let me know in the comments. I am also more than happy to add new perspectives and data points if you have ideas.
The structure is the following:
- A recap of the daily updates that I do here on TradingView.
- The Meaning of Life, a view on the past week
- What's coming in the next week
- The Bullish View, The Bearish View
- Key index levels to watch out for
- Wrap-up
If you have been following my daily updates, you can skip down to the “The Meaning of Life”. If not, then this first part is a great play-by-play recap for the week. Click the original charts for more detail each day.
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Monday, December 21, 2020
You better watch out. You better not cry.
Facts: -0.10%, Volume lower, Closing range: 96%, Body: 65%
Good: Support at 12,500, close near highs
Bad: Gap down at open, LH/LL
Highs/Lows: Lower high, Lower low
Candle: Gap down to upside reversal, tiny upper wick
Advance/Decline: 0.80, more declining stocks than advancing stocks
Sectors: Financials (XLF +0.81%). All other sectors lost. Energy (XLE -3.22%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The Nasdaq opened with a gap down as investors looked nervously upon a new mutant COVID virus in the UK that shut down travel and crushed European indexes. The lows of the day were short lived and the Nasdaq climbed to afternoon highs that almost went above Friday's close. Stock prices recovered on enthusiasm for a stimulus bill passing in congress. The Nasdaq closed with a -0.10% loss, a sideways move compared to the morning lows. Volume was lower than Friday's huge volume, but still above average volume. The closing range of 96% and a 65% green body make it a bullish day despite the small loss. There were more declining stocks than advancing stocks, something that we'll watch for change later this week.
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Tuesday, December 22, 2020
Up on the housetop, reindeer pause.
Facts: +0.51%, Volume higher, Closing range: 78%, Body: 16%
Good: New ATH, close higher than open, higher volume
Bad: Dip after morning high
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Opening gap filled by long lower wick, small body in upper part of candle
Advance/Decline: 1.20, more advancing stocks than declining stocks
Sectors: Technology (XLK +0.87%) and Real Estate (+0.70%) were top. Energy (XLE -1.68%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
The Nasdaq opened a positive session with a gap up driven by optimism for the recovering economy. GDP data came in higher than expected and the stimulus bill is passing through congress with some certainty of passing. That optimism was tempered a bit mid-morning after Consumer Confidence and Existing Home Sales data was lower than expected. Eventually the bulls came back in and the index gained 0.51% for the day on higher volume. The closing range was 78% and the 16% green body is in the upper half of the candle. More stocks advanced than declined.
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Wednesday, December 23, 2020
Oh, bring us a figgy pudding.
Facts: -0.29%, Volume higher, Closing range: 15%, Body: 77%
Good: Higher high and Higher low, bulls held the gap
Bad: Bearish candle, Sell-off near close
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: A full red-body candle with short wicks, closes within the gap from Mon/Tue.
Advance/Decline: 1.72, three advancing for every two declining stock
Sectors: Energy (XLE +2.21%) and Financials (XLF +1.65%) were top. Real Estate (XLRE -0.95) and Technology (XLK -0.76%) worst performing.
Expectation: Sideways
All things considered, it could have been a lot worse. Trump's threats to veto the stimulus bill seemed to have little impact at open. Initial Jobless Claims came in lower than expected. Despite a dip in personal spending and new home sales, the Nasdaq rose through the morning to make a new all-time high in the afternoon. It then turned and sold off sharply in the final minutes before close.
The index finished down -0.29% on higher volume. The closing range of 15% and 77% red body show a bearish day. On the positive side, bulls held the gap created between Monday and Tuesdays session and there were three advancing stocks for every declining stock.
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Thursday, December 24, 2020
Have yourself a merry little Christmas
Facts: +0.26%, Volume lower, Closing range: 56%, Body: 20%
Good: Stayed within tight range, despite bad news on stimulus
Bad: Not much
Highs/Lows: Lower high, higher low
Candle: Inside day, thing body in middle of candle counts for an indecisive session
Advance/Decline: 0.95, about even advancing and declining stocks
Sectors: Real Estate (XLRE +0.98%) and Utilities (XLU +0.71%) were top. Energy (XLE -0.52) was the worst performing, the only losing sector.
Expectation: Sideways
Merry Christmas Eve! The shortened session for the Nasdaq was mostly indecisive with the close just above the open and about an even amount of advancing and declining stocks. Investors didn't seem to worried with bad news around the stimulus, possibly helped by good news from Europe on a Brexit deal. The index closed with a +0.26% gain with a 56% closing range and a 20% green body in the middle of the candle. The volume was lower as expected.
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The Meaning of Life (View on the Week)
Merry Christmas!
The short trading week was not without excitement. There was good news and bad news for the pandemic, the stimulus bill and Brexit agreements. The Nasdaq rode the news up and down but eventually closed the week with a +0.38% gain. The closing range of 88% and 66% green body show another bullish week in a long rally.
The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to outperform the other indexes with a +1.72% weekly gain. The Dow Jones Industrial (DJI) gained +0.07% while the S&P 500 (SPX) lost -0.17% for the week. The VIX volatility index dropped -0.19%, but had a wild week with a high 50% above the close due to Monday's volatile open.
Monday started with a gap-down caused by fresh lockdowns in Europe after a new mutant of the COVID virus emerged in the UK. The gap-down turned into a fairly bullish session as the indexes recovered much of the morning losses in the afternoon. The big day for growth investors was Tuesday, powered by an agreement in congress on the final stimulus bill.
Those hopes would be soon squashed as President Trump declared he would veto the bill, calling it a "disgrace". But that there was a silver lining in that stimulus checks might actually be bigger if Trump got his way. Wednesday's session saw Financials and Energy sectors take the lead.
Thursday's short session was muted on lower volume. Republicans in congress rejected the idea of bigger stimulus checks, risking a potential government shutdown come Monday. There was a bit of defensiveness in the market as we head into a long weekend but there was not a big sell-off on the bad news. Overall, the day was indecisive in direction to end the week.
The weekly chart shows the rally that we've had since the beginning of November. The average closing range for the last eight weeks is 77%, with each of the last 5 weeks resulted in a higher high and a higher low for the week. Despite some distribution days along the way, the market is still clearly in an uptrend.
Financials ( XLF ) was the big winner of the week. The fed stress test last week resulted in banks being allowed to resume share buy bank programs, giving some tailwinds to the sector.
Technology ( XLK ) took the lead on Tuesday, but fell back into second place at the open on Wednesday.
All other sectors underperformed the S&P 500 for the week.
Energy ( XLE ) was the leading sector for Wednesday's session but was the worst performing sector on the other days, coming in last for the week.
US Treasury Bond Yields dropped for the week. The spreads between long term and short term bonds tightened slightly. The US 30y and US 10y yields are both in uptrends as investors are not interested in the long term bonds. The US 2y yield is in a sideways to downward trend.
Prices for corporate bonds (HYG) continues to trend upward while short-term treasury bond prices (IEI) continue to move sideways, signaling confidence in the economy from investors.
The US dollar (DXY) advanced +0.1% for the week. The dollar is at a support/resistance area formed in the first quarter of 2018.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) ended the week at 0.670. The level is more comfortable than the overly bullish levels seen in recent weeks. A contrarian indicator, when the put/call ratio is below 0.7, it signals overly bullish sentiment which typically proceeds a pullback in the market. The indicator was at 0.458 just before the September correction and it was at 0.489 just before the short October correction.
Silver (SILVER) was up +0.03% for the week while Gold (GOLD) declined -0.10% for the week. Crude Oil was down -1.17% as fears of new lockdowns caused oil futures to drop. Timber (WOOD) was down -0.75%. Copper (COPPER!1) pulled back with a -1.65% loss while Aluminum (ALI1!) declined -1.85%. These commodities show a little less bullishness in the market than the previous week, but are still in good upward trends. Speculative data to be released on Monday will show more insight into investor sentiment in the commodities.
Of the four largest mega-caps, only Amazon (AMZN) closed the week with a loss, declining -0.90% for the week. Apple (AAPL) had a big week, gaining +4.20% after news of an electric vehicle caused a gap-up at Tuesday open. Alphabet was up +0.46% for the week, but could not close the week above its 10w moving average line. Microsoft (MSFT) gained +1.90%.
Tesla (TSLA) dipped almost 12% after Monday's addition to the S&P 500, but regained ground later in the week to close the week with a -4.78% loss.
Peloton (PTON) gapped up on Tuesday after announcing they would acquire Pecor. The acquisition brings them additional manufacturing growth while targeting existing Pecor customers for subscription growth.
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The Week Ahead
Data on speculative positions in commodities will be released on Monday. The speculative positions among investors can show sentiment for future growth areas in the economic recovery.
Tuesday will bring an update on Consumer Confidence for December, while Pending Home Sales data will be released on Wednesday.
Markets will be closed on Friday for the New Year's Holiday.
There are no notable earnings reports in the next week.
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The Bullish Side
Another week of higher highs and higher lows.
The equity markets continue to hold up even as bad news could have a negative impact. Monday was a great example. In the face of new pandemic lockdowns and travel restrictions in Europe, the US markets gapped-down but then quickly recovered during the day. The continuation of QE from the Fed and the promise of new stimulus is keeping the markets from overreacting on the downside.
GDP came in higher than expected, showing the economic engine is recovering faster than previously thought.
US Treasury Bonds yields continue to trend higher as investors are not interested in the safe haven asset. Corporate Bond yields trend lower, signaling confidence in the US economic recovery and the ability for companies to weather the short term challenges. Even defensive plays in equities, such as the Utilities sector, were not seen this past week despite heading into a long holiday weekend.
The US Dollar rose a bit this week as the Euro declined on the new lockdown news. However, it continues to trade near the 2018 lows, giving a boost to large multi-national companies that can benefit from a lower valued greenback.
A new vote on the stimulus will come on Monday. Passing the stimulus will build on investor confidence as we move into the new year.
With the huge gains that many investors incurred in this year, we can expect they want to hold until January before selling. That may be a bad omen for January, but can be bullish support for the coming week.
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The Bearish Side
The stimulus bill in congress has another vote coming on Monday. A vote against the bill could sour investor sentiment for the economy. On top of that, it makes a government shutdown almost inevitable. Although shutdowns don't always negatively impact the stock market, it could result in a short-term negative reaction.
Even as vaccine distribution continues, hospitals are fearing a surge in severe coronavirus cases after the holidays. New outbreaks and over-capacity in hospitals could prompt new lockdowns in epicenter areas. Any evidence of the mutant virus from the UK, could cause a reaction in markets.
Consumer Confidence, Personal Spending and Existing/New Homes Sales dipped more than expected this past week. That could signal a holiday shopping season that was more negatively impacted than expected for retailers. The lack of stimulus checks would put more downward pressure on consumer spending.
After several weeks of higher highs and higher lows, the market could be due for more of a pullback. The 50d moving average line is about 6.5% below Thursday's close.
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Key Nasdaq Levels to Watch
There are several key levels in the Nasdaq to keep an eye out for and respond accordingly. First on the positive side:
- The high of Wednesday at 12,841.92 will be the first test. A new high to start the week would be a positive sign to continue the current rally.
- The next round-number resistance could come at 13,000. Round-number resistance is caused by traders’ tendency to put in sell orders at round numbers.
On the downside, there are several key levels to raise caution flags:
- 12,525.221 is the low of this week. Staying above the low would put in another week of higher lows.
- 12,600 may be a new support/resistance area. That area has shown up in the open and closes of several days the past few weeks.
- The 21d EMA is at 12,490.40. The index has closed above this moving average line for the last 36 trading days.
- The support area of 12,250 is the next support area. Hopefully, that area will hold the index above that price level.
- The 50d MA is at 11,976.25. That is 6.5% below Friday's close. Testing the 50d MA will make a lot of investors nervous, already causing a big hit to portfolios.
- November support area is at 12,000 and a round-number point. A move below this line would raise more flags for investors.
- September Support line is at 11,300. Dropping to this level would be a sure sign of correction.
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Wrap-up
Here comes the last trading week of 2020. Although the gains have been many this past year, let's hope for a little less drama in 2021.
Good luck, stay healthy and trade safe!
