The main question in the spotlight is will the bulls defend the 7000 mark or will the bears push towards lower levels from here. Considering the large and sustained sell off which has been taking tech stocks have taken a beating especially the likes of nvidia
which plummeted 18% in two trading days after posting disappointing results on the back of a crypto hangover. The adx
trend indicator can sometimes be misleading or not provide a clear direction for traders but when coupled with rsi
and the price action it tends to work remarkably well. Traditionally, this chart would be screaming a sell signal due to the divergence of DI+ (green line) and DI- (Red Line) accompanied with a trending market highlighted by the adx
line reaching above the signal, suggesting a bear market or more sustained selloff. However this huge divergence made me notice something which may actually be a sign of an impending rally. However, traders must be cautious as the adx
precedes future price movement and thus the short time lag may work against traders.
Right below is the chart of nasdaq in feb 2016 where it went under a massive selloff.
The nasdaq was exhibiting some serious bear signals however if you notice the chart the price, RSI
, DI+ line hit a bottom at the exact same time and from the bottom of 4200 it raced to 4800 in less than 2 months leading to a 15% profit if you just went and bought a low cost nasdaq etf!. Look at the chart as of today and you will see the RSI
, DI+ and price have hit a bottom simultaneously. Notice the RSI
in feb 2016 was 33 and now it is at 36 which tells me we may jump back to 7500 in no time. Traditionally you want the DI+ to cross upward on the DI- to flash a buy signal, but buy that time you may miss a chunk of the gains. If this isnt a long signal, I dont know what is!
One may buy the etf
outright, go long on futures
or buy a 7200-7300 option for december, to play out this idea!
Still new to TA, so any constructive criticism would definitely be appreciated!
Definitely not financial advice!