Starting with boji1's analysis AMEX:SPY/3.795+NASDAQ:QQQ/2.065+AMEX:DIA I have come to the theory that perhaps the overall market isn't in the kind of bubble everyone is touting, but in stead tech heavy bubble. Overall, the markets are up roughly 20%, with IXIC by itself up 44% using support levels found prior to the March 2020 crash. If we look at the IXIC as requiring a healthy correction to achieve a reasonable valuation based on overall market valuations, while preserving some topside valuation for the tech market, as there will be, in my opinion, long term tailwinds from the forced integration into mainstream society of companies like TDOC
, ZM, PYPL
, etc, because of the quarantine, we can estimate a reasonable valuation of around 20% above pre March 2020 levels with the assumption that of the all of the increases in use of these technologies, 20% will be preserved. This would represent a further 17% correction of the IXIC, and would, again in my opinion, bring the values and market caps of many of the companies in the IXIC back to reasonable levels. Obviously, this is assuming many things, and making some educated guesses, but I think this in a conservative estimation.
This does not necessitate leaving tech positions all together
, but instead require a hard look at trimming or hedging some of those positions.