One Hell of a Distorted Forward-Looking Assessment
Transports haven't rallied like this since the Roaring 20's. I'm seeing some blatant money grabs going on in the IYT, names like CAR, a turd rental company reporting negative earnings and up 500% since pandemic lows, stupid chases into cruiselines, etc. The shit is not real, this economy is not that good, business travel will likely never come back pre-pandemic, at least not until 2025. C'mon, culture has changed, companies will be lucky to simply get quality staff via remote let alone come into the office. f that.
There's a of people trying to call the top in the SPY, (which also needs a healthy 15-20% correction. But the transports need to fall first, and as of late, they're truly bulletproof. Since February of this year, this thing has gone parabolic, it'll likely come face to face with seasonality and a reality gut check. Nobody wants to sit in cash, but f nobody wants to hold the bag at these levels either. We're about to find out how smart the smart money is..this summer no less.
Rolling into some July puts on the IYT once we get a nice whipsaw day/week. Already seeing it in the IWM. Volatility waking up, sold UVXY calls yesterday, loaded up more today.
There's a of people trying to call the top in the SPY, (which also needs a healthy 15-20% correction. But the transports need to fall first, and as of late, they're truly bulletproof. Since February of this year, this thing has gone parabolic, it'll likely come face to face with seasonality and a reality gut check. Nobody wants to sit in cash, but f nobody wants to hold the bag at these levels either. We're about to find out how smart the smart money is..this summer no less.
Rolling into some July puts on the IYT once we get a nice whipsaw day/week. Already seeing it in the IWM. Volatility waking up, sold UVXY calls yesterday, loaded up more today.