Jnug to Gold Presidential Election
If Trump wins tomorrow, (and I have this strange feeling he will), then gold should shoot up in a similar price action pattern like the June Brexit. It will probably gap way up, maybe even fill the gap, and then pull back to the bottom of the channel by the end of the week only to climb for the rest of the month into December.
If Hillary wins, then Gold will probably tank down to the $6.25 support range before we can see a reversal.
Well Jnug touched the bottom of the channel and bounced. I do not believe that the market is ever totally priced in for anything. I have never seen that happen. If the market is priced in then according to some, this should not drop anymore on a Hillary win. After watching the price action on Sunday, to say it is priced in is a little premature in my opinion. What I do know for sure is that there are now two gaps to fill. The one we just made and the big one around the $15 range. So even if Hillary steals this election, Ha, and even if gold drops a little more, are you willing to risk missing the move up from here?
My chart above shows another scenario that could very likely happen. Jnug and gold grind sideways for a few days. Why? Because it is very possible that we wake up in the morning with no clear cut winner. And I suspect that neither side will concede right away as a few battle ground states become too close to call without a recount. I also suspect that there will be more lawsuits from the Trump side about voter fraud. I do not think this will move the price of gold very much as the markets will take a holding pattern until there is a winner. And yes I still think that Trump will pull it off. I cannot tell you the number of black folks who I have crossed paths with over the last few months or who I have heard interviewed, that are secretly voting for Trump even thought they voted for Obama before. They are also angry at the promises that were not kept by the first black President and the fact that things are not better for them but worse in many ways. So that is my prediction, Trump wins and Gold up up up
I think once the win is confirmed everyone will relax, the dollar goes up, gold moves down - its just the comparative lack of anxiety between pre- and post-election that will catalyze.
After the election - with the rate-hike coming - JNUG will move up - I am fairly confident.
My "forecast" for tomorrow" JNUG down in the 9's, UGAZ up in the 30's.
Disclosure: I will go long JDST and UGAZ by the end of the day. Expecting a gap opening on both.
I held JNUG for this reason and I think the (IMHO unlikely) scenario in which Trump pulls it off would way way way outweigh the "small"JDST gain that we could see from Hillary as I still believe the market has her win priced in (at least partly).