Kogan started looking bullish after bottoming from it's huge drop in October (41%) but has since formed a short term rising wedge pattern.
Within the rising wedge, price has formed a mini falling wedge, potentially suggesting a small rally toward the top of the rising wedge (toward the orange box area on the chart). If price breaks up here we may expect a measured move somewhere between 3.58 and 3.70. I am currently long since 3.11 and will be looking to take some profits near the top of the wedge (orange box). If we do not get this small rally and instead break down immediately I will be exiting my position and waiting for a re-buy on support around 3.05.
After this short term action, price is likely to break down from the rising wedge. A measured move from this break implies a measured move that lines up almost perfectly with horizontal support, located at 3.04 - 3.05. This is where I will be looking to re-enter my position (green box), ideally for a longer term hold. If the $3 level does not hold, there is no major support until $2.70.
Fundamentally, Kogan looks good and after such a brutal 70% drop during 2018 some relief could be expected in the longer term. If price action can start to recover then I will be looking for a longer term hold on KGN. Until then I will be watching for signals and taking profits when necessary.
Happy trading!
Within the rising wedge, price has formed a mini falling wedge, potentially suggesting a small rally toward the top of the rising wedge (toward the orange box area on the chart). If price breaks up here we may expect a measured move somewhere between 3.58 and 3.70. I am currently long since 3.11 and will be looking to take some profits near the top of the wedge (orange box). If we do not get this small rally and instead break down immediately I will be exiting my position and waiting for a re-buy on support around 3.05.
After this short term action, price is likely to break down from the rising wedge. A measured move from this break implies a measured move that lines up almost perfectly with horizontal support, located at 3.04 - 3.05. This is where I will be looking to re-enter my position (green box), ideally for a longer term hold. If the $3 level does not hold, there is no major support until $2.70.
Fundamentally, Kogan looks good and after such a brutal 70% drop during 2018 some relief could be expected in the longer term. If price action can start to recover then I will be looking for a longer term hold on KGN. Until then I will be watching for signals and taking profits when necessary.
Happy trading!
Comment:
Measured move from the rising wedge has been hit, but exercise caution as it could play out as a larger bear flag which would bring us to the $2.70 area. I have gone long at $3.03 with a tight stop loss and will be watching how prices behaves at resistance areas for profit taking
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