WMWToronto

Further to my thoughts on LINK..........

Long
BINANCE:LINKBTC   ChainLink / Bitcoin
Before you read this post, please pull up the ETH chart at its inception.

As I have posted before I like LINK and I like it even more when I compare it to the chart pattern of Ethereum (ETH) when it first came to the market. As we all know, markets move in cycles (up and down) and LINK's timing into the market cycle seems to be well placed. This asset will certainly be at the top of my list again moving into the 2021 cycle. Investors have had plenty of time to buy LINK at a low price during 2019, this is called the “Accumulation Phase” where you buy into an asset at a low price, and now as we move into somewhat of a Bull market the price and value of the investment increases. (See chart)

In this chart, the Blue jagged line indicates the price and the brown, red and blue lines represent the 20. 40 and 100 day Moving Averages (MA) respectively. Note that all three MA (3) lines are moving in an upwards position. This gives you an indication of where the price may be moving. The light blue rectangular box shows the price span of the asset from Jan. 2019 to today and shows the value of a $1000 investment which I suggested, today at $20,643. 40 . Not bad for 22 months.

I believe that LINK can quite possibly follow the same growth pattern of Ethereum (ETH) my 2nd largest position when it came to market. For example, ETH had the same “Accumulation Phase” over only 4 months from July to Oct 2017 and then proceeded to rise up 774 % in just two months during its early growth phase of 6 months. Once again, a 774% increase in 6 months beats keeping your money under your bed in a sock. *** Please go and pull up the ETH chart if you like.

At best, we can only work with the information that the numbers provide and postulate from there. No one can see into the future and we can only see 100%, what has happened in the past. I have to tell you that this information is “NOT” financial advice of any kind, but merely an academic/theoretical exercise for friends to consider, rather than concocting some sort of vegetarian Zucchini meatloaf for Sunday dinner that would make your cat puke.

I am holding LINK for at least 1-2 years to see where it goes. It's not a scalping or day trade position. Of course you have to monitor these things, especially the volatility of BTC in relation to LINK.

Have a pleasant day.

wmw
Toronto, Canada
Oct 28, 2020
2:47 am

Comments

Interesting point of view - as you say no one can see into the future. All we do know is this asset has climbed 6000% against Bitcoin in under what 18 months? Very similar to Ethereum before rolling over from its peak in the same time period.

I think Chainlink has reached the top in BTC terms.

Eth:



and now Chainlink

Reply
WMWToronto without_worries
@without_worries, Yes, LINK has done quite well for a relatively new asset, but since BTC is the grandfather and rock of the crypto eco-sphere what else could we pair it against or with ? I see continued growth in both assets, for "fundamental " reasons that no true TA would even consider. Also my logarithmic regression charts look favorable into the future ? Your comments ?

Oh yes, my chart shows Chainlink/BTC. I used ETH as a growth comparison in the early days.

Thanks for posting.

Ward Weaire
Toronto, Canada

PS: Although I've done well by ETH, I believe it may face challenges in the future.
Reply
@WMWToronto, Big fan of logarithmic regression analysis (studied operational research), a useful tool when considering limited number of events. Won / lost, overbought / oversold, fat / thin, and so on. Best perhaps used on the Macro levels.

If you're looking for other pairs try Gold. The Bitcoin/gold pair takes away the noise of the dollar. In fact there's even argument for comparing dollar against other fiat currencies, i.e. the euro, which i've observed less noise. The 10-day chart below compares Gold performance against Bitcoin. Here are two assets that are supposed to do the same thing, yet one is completely outperforming the other. And it would seem we're on the verge of another rally. Bitcoin is obviously eating up investors who would otherwise choose gold.

As far as oracles go, I think Chainlink will be one of many. To my knowledge there's nothing stopping anyone from copying Chainlink, just like Sushi did to Uniswap. Notwithstanding copying, there's the consideration of price - who are the users? High frequency trading platforms? They'll not be using Chainlink then. So who? Derivatives markets? Bitcoin can already (not widely known) perform simple smart contracts - what if at some point in the future we have a hard fork that integrate an oracle capability?

PS: I don't actually own any BTC at this time. Waiting for the stock market to crash first. Probably before the end of next month.

Reply
WMWToronto without_worries
@without_worries, Hi Again. Sorry for the delay in replying. I like the suggestion of using gold as a trading pair, never thought of it. I know of a number of gold assets that are tethered or based on the gold price, is there one you would suggest ? It would be interesting to find some sort of "screen" that matches pairs. I am sure there is one out there. I have just been trading ETH & BTC against the US and Canadian dollar and they have worked out well and I believe they will continue to do so into the future, at least according to my regression bands.

I like LINK as well, despite its short history, but more because it follows the ETH chart in the early days. In terms of your comments regarding LINK, I would like to hope that whomever was responsible for launching the project completed a business/investor plan justifying launching and investment into the project. I have not read their "white paper" yet. Questions about target markets, product applications and competition etc. should have been addressed before launching a project such as Chainlink I would think ? I have reviewed a good number of proposals for IPO's and you have to realize that they contain a lot of what I call "Blue Sky" and are written to encourage investment into a company, but this is the "crypto=universe" so maybe the principals just pitch the idea that they have written some "really cool" code and not given any thought to its real world market applications or coin (stock) value ? It would be kind of like investing in DOT.

In any event, I have to look for an asset that presents a nice upwards trend line opportunity, as BTC and ETH are slowing down, although I am looking forward to what I call the "ETH/BTC December Effect". It's happened for the past several years. Buy in December and sell in the 1st quarter of the New Year. The RSI gives you a good indication. Have a look at the chart and give me your feedback if you like.

Thanks again,

Ward Weaire
Toronto, Canada
5:00 am
NOV 4, 2020 ( In the Year of the Great Election )
Reply
@WMWToronto, I use the spot gold price to tether against BTC when looking for meaningful changes in value rather than the dollar. However only on the larger time scales, i.e. weekly and above.

Link no doubt has strong fundamentals. I find it difficult to consider fundamentals in this space when under control of a single entity. I remember what attracted me to blockchain in the first place, permissionless and distributed networks. The MCO / CRO token debacle reminded us all just how toxic centralised involvement is, destroying the token price. Why do I mention this? Because Link remains very centralised with a vast number of tokens under the team’s control. Just like XRP. The same cannot be said about Ethereum.

Something else worth mentioning about Link, you say it reminds you of Ethereum’s ‘early days’. Do you mean in price action? Assuming yes… In 2015 the Ethereum genesis block was created, listed on big exchanges by 2016. Best price around $7 and 18,000% later you’d have got out at $1300 if you timed the top perfectly. Link could be purchased for 16 cents not that long ago, already we’re up 12,000% @ $13- I’m not certain how many people realise this, but even to just match Ether’s performance to date Link only needs to reach $32 / 155% after a 12,000% climb. The risk / reward ratio here is very ugly. I’m assuming we’re all here to make money, Link is not a bet I’d be taking at the moment. I see far more attractive risk / reward situations elsewhere.

The December rally - yes I think everyone is expecting that. Over the years I’ve observed those rallies come every two years with a false event in-between. The orange lines below mark mid-December. And True & false indicating a rally or not. Currently we’re entering mid-December on a high - I’m cautious!!

Reply
excellent thank you for this great analysis !
Reply
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features Pricing Refer a friend House Rules Help Center Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Charting Solutions Lightweight Charting Library Blog & News Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Referred friends Coins My Support Tickets Help Center Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out