FerroIgnique

Massive potential move in LINKETH, illiquid market risk

Short
KRAKEN:LINKETH   LINK / ETH
This isn't advice, is a trading journal. But that being said I've opened a position into shorting LINKETH . This is a very illiquid market, Kraken, the exchange I use sometimes goes hours without reporting a trade and the variance across exchanges can be significant. Additionally, because the exchanges have such variance in price action the oscillators are totally non-congruent. I'm a huge fan of the Stoch RSI but you don't see it here due to the liquidity issues. Moreover, price action, followed by averages and volume are what I look at the most.

While Bitcoin and the other majors were crabbing LINK went parabolic. I avoided trading it because I think its a meme coin and I'm biased coins that Kraken lets me trade x5. Kraken only allows x3 on LINK, but in retrospect its a trade I missed, big time: Heinkin Ashi Candles
My position is predicated on the idea that LINK will retrace similar to BCH and BSV , which we can see in BCHUSDs case was very quick and dramatic.
At the same time, I'm fairly convinced that ETH is going to break to the upside, bigly, in short order. It may even go on the same crazy move we've seen in BSV , BCH, and LINK. My tinfoil sensibility is that someones are pumping alts in order to make massive gains, or offload bags and get the short after. This is also the reason I have a eye on EOS, it may be in the pump queue; it already doubled and retraced this year, but who knows? I don't. More context for ETHUSD in the linked post.
I am also very bullish on bitcoin . Its been finding support on the weekly 50, and while a retrace to the 50 at 8583 now would be a prudent option to hedge against, the stock to flow, halvening, buy signal on the hash ribbons, and support on the 50 leads me to think that major moves to the upside are coming. These major moves may be in weeks to come, months to perform, and preceded by a pullback, etc, etc, but my bias is BTC and ETH moving up, ETH perhaps moving faster and sooner based on the ascending triangle .

Why trade a crypto pair that moves x3 when another coin can be traded x5 in USD? Because simply if the USD pairs move in opposite directions against USD the move will be magnified in the pair in such a manner that the reduced amount of leverage yields higher gains. Also I'll be paid out in the denominator, in this case, ETH. Imagine ETH goes x 20, and I trade it x5, thats 100% returns. Very nice. But if Link goes -20 at the same time then the spread on that would be 40% x5= 120%. I'd not be surprised to see ETH go 60% to the upside and LINK go 60% to the downside.

Of course there is always the chance that LINKUSD is merely resting and continues to go parabolic. Or that they both appreciate at near the same rate, or both fall dramtically. Which is why I'm not all in on this trade and I have stops all around.
Trade closed: stop reached: Illiquid Market Indeed. This spike doesn't exist on other exchanges, but needless to say I reopened a position, with .035 as my stop loss.

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