Bullish in lower TFs & cascading up..
Bullish with Green EMA above Energy in in all scalping timeframes plus 90 & 3h and propagating up through higher timeframes. In 6h Red RSI & Blue LSMA crossed and closed above 50. Green EMA looks like it will progress above Energy in 6h & 12h where we have an upward pressure race with the Red RSI in the 6h being favourite - Red RSI in 12h already at 48.9 with Energy in 6h still 106.
Will update tomorrow...
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Will update tomorrow...
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Please hit the like button if you get value from this analysis :)
Comment:
Bear in mind that if BTC gets rejected by resistance at this level and retrace we will see this scenario fail... or at least put on hold.
Comment:
Apologies - in comment "Clarification about the upward pressure race"
It should have read When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the "6h" not the "daily"
It should have read When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the "6h" not the "daily"
Comment:
In the 6h, as expected the Energy has fallen bellow the Green EMA, we can also see the BBs beginning to expand. We still need to see the Red RSI in the 12h to cross above 50 before the Energy in the 6h CLOSES below 50 before we can see upward pressure propagate up. The Green EMA in the 12h has gone up strong with the Energy which is a good sign, we still need to see the Green to get higher than the Energy in the 12h to confirm bullish sentiment for this TF. If the Red RSI in this TF does win the race, we can expect the price action to rise to the White/Aqua upper BBs (currently $31.24 - $33.25)
In the near term group of timeframes, in the daily the Energy is still higher than the Green EMA but in the rest of the group, the Green EMA is higher than the Energy indicating upward pressure. In the 2d the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises, if we close like this in 1d & 15h we will see the Energy cross above 50 at the start of the next candle. However we have also seen a downward pressure race triggered when the Red RSI in the 2d crossed below 50.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
In the near term group of timeframes, in the daily the Energy is still higher than the Green EMA but in the rest of the group, the Green EMA is higher than the Energy indicating upward pressure. In the 2d the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises, if we close like this in 1d & 15h we will see the Energy cross above 50 at the start of the next candle. However we have also seen a downward pressure race triggered when the Red RSI in the 2d crossed below 50.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
Comment:
As indicated earlier in this analysis, continuation of upward pressure was dependent on BTC "playing bull"
Please see my BTC analysis which appears consistent with current dynamics with LINKUSDT
Please see my BTC analysis which appears consistent with current dynamics with LINKUSDT
Comment:
We need to be cautious and watchful now. The Energy is higher than the Green EMA in the 6m, 12m, 45m in the scalping group of timeframes which is where pressure changes propagate up from.
We can of course see local pressure changes which remain in this group but need to constantly watch this group if we want to catch early moves. In the short term group of timeframes, the Energy is higher than the Green in the 90m, The Red RSI has crossed below 50 in the 3h and the Blue LSMA is heading down toward 50. In the 6h the Blue LSMA & Red RSI have both made contact with the Green EMA as it falls and the Green has fallen sharply below 50 with the Energy, we are likely to see the price action in this TF fall to the proximity of the BB basis currently $27.50. The Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it falls in the 12h also. If we close like this in an hour and a half, we will see the Energy fall below 50.
I have an appointment now but will try and provide updates with consideration to higher TFs and BTC current behaviour asap.
Best wishes all...
We can of course see local pressure changes which remain in this group but need to constantly watch this group if we want to catch early moves. In the short term group of timeframes, the Energy is higher than the Green in the 90m, The Red RSI has crossed below 50 in the 3h and the Blue LSMA is heading down toward 50. In the 6h the Blue LSMA & Red RSI have both made contact with the Green EMA as it falls and the Green has fallen sharply below 50 with the Energy, we are likely to see the price action in this TF fall to the proximity of the BB basis currently $27.50. The Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it falls in the 12h also. If we close like this in an hour and a half, we will see the Energy fall below 50.
I have an appointment now but will try and provide updates with consideration to higher TFs and BTC current behaviour asap.
Best wishes all...
Comment:
Just a quick update to point out that the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all the Near Term group of time frames apart from the 2d. The Green has shot up with the Energy in the daily with both Red RSI and Blue LSMA making contact as it rose. In the 2d the Red RSI has turned back up and looks to want to cross up above level 50. We would like to see the Red RSI turn back up in the 3d & 4d too. The Red RSI has closed making contact with the Green as it rises in the 3d too and as a result the Energy has crossed (but not yet closed) above 50. The Green EMA has turned back up in the 4d. The Green EMA in the 3d has turned back up - if we can see it get higher than the Energy and the Red RSI & Blue LSMA continue to turn up we can expect price action to rise to the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands (currently $33.47 & $38.27)
The Green EMA is also higher than the Energy in all the mid term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d). The Green EMA has turned back up in the 6d and may turn up in the 9d & 12d judging by lower timeframes. In the 12d this may result in only a small dip below 50 before the Energy turns back up for what may in my opinion be an extended period of sustained upward pressure.
The Green EMA is also higher than the Energy in all the mid term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d). The Green EMA has turned back up in the 6d and may turn up in the 9d & 12d judging by lower timeframes. In the 12d this may result in only a small dip below 50 before the Energy turns back up for what may in my opinion be an extended period of sustained upward pressure.
When the Red RSI CROSSED above 50 in the daily an upward pressure race was triggered. In order for us to see a continuation of upward pressure, we need to see the Red RSI in the 12h CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 6h CLOSES below 50. Additionally we need to see the Green EMA, higher than the Energy in the three preceding timeframes. If the Red RSI in the 12h wins the race, we now have to see if the upward pressure can propagate into the next doubled timeframe. So we need to see the Red RSI in the 2d CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the daily CLOSES below 50.
In the 6h the Red RSI & Blue LSMA crossed and closed above 50 in harmony, the Green EMA is trying to move out to the side to allow the Energy to fall below. If the Green EMA can get higher than the Energy, we are likely to see the price action remain with the candle bodies for the most part between the Aqua/Orange upper Bollinger Bands, furthermore, as the Blue LSMA has crossed above 50, the Bollinger Bands are likely to expand and the price action accelerate to the upside between the Aqua/Orange as they expand.