Another big thing to note is that when Aspect 1 of the Rule of Neutrality is taken into account, this is a direct hit on the Wave 4 time-fib. That is a very good indicator that this is Wave 4 and we are likely to begin Wave 5. We can only hope that it is an extension because if it is not, we most likely will get a 5th wave failure, which means it could be another couple of years before we break ATH . If this is an extended 5th then the Moon's the Limit. To confirm a Wave 5 extension (or possibly invalidate this Wave 4 and replace it with a Wave 2) we must break 0.0225 on this Median Monthly chart. At that point Wave 3 is no longer an extension so it only leaves us with either a Wave 5 extension, or a brand new impulse.
An interesting thing to note: The Monthly AO has turned green for the first time since crossing the zero line, and the is also green and nearing the zero line. This could be another indication that this is the end of the downtrend.
If this is a 5th wave extension, my ultimate upside target would be 0.08. If it's a 5th wave failure it could stop anywhere from 0.015-0.0225.
Now the question many of you are probably wondering... Is going to do the same thing? If I had to guess, I would say not yet. I think that Litecoin may actually be leading by 2 months. It seems very likely that is still in Wave C of the 2nd three. The reason why is because Wave C is less than 38.2% of Wave a. That most likely indicates that we need to go down and retest 209 at a minimum before we can finally start Bitcoin's bulltrend. However, if Wave a is actually Wave w, then will follow Litecoin and start uptrending now. I think the ultimate confirmation for that will come very soon. If breaks 267 on this monthly median chart then we have most likely bottomed out.
For now, it definitely looks like LTCBTC has bottomed out. These are very exciting times in crypto, a lot of alts are starting to look extremely . could be too. Future price action will confirm that for certain, but right now the entire sector looks extremely in the intermediate term. This is certainly a great time to be involved in cryptocurrency.
Good Luck Traders!
Bonus Analysis: http://scamco.in/2015/06/26/has-litecoin-already-bottomed-out/
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Right now is a great time to invest time and effort into trades in LTC/BTC. This should last for well into November after the block halving the end of August. I'm expecting LTC/BTC should go to at least .0223 myself. It would be nice if it were to go to .08. THAT would be phenomenal!!!! I keep telling everyone on tradingview.com, "LTC is the place to be for the next several months in terms of volume and volatility. Lots of gains to be made there."
Thanks again for sharing. I will continue to follow your future addendum to this fantastic chart.
I'm investing half of my net worth into LTC, BTC, Gold and Silver. Some may think I'm crazy for doing so but I don't think so. Yes, it's a gamble, but a gamble I'm willing to take. Especially, with LTC/BTC right now. I believe we have more of a take-off with LTC than any of the other alts. The great thing is like you said, "... without leverage."
Can you tell me where you think BTC will be at that time, so we can get an idea of how much this is in USD?
Also I don't understand how this is your upside target if, as you say, "the Moon's the limit". What exactly will that mean in fiat values please?
I agree, there is a LOT of indications that cryptocurrency in general is very bullish. Technical and Fundamental. A shot at ATH would not surprise me at all for not only BTC, but LTC and a handful of alts too. If you're not the day trader type buy and hold is definitely a good strategy at this point until we start getting some bearish indication on the high time-frames. Personally, I am going to try to ride the waves on a daily time-frame so I can increase gains exponentially :)
There's still the chance that this is just a bullish correction or a 5th wave failure, so it would be smart not to get too bullish, and remember that every bubble will eventually pop. If we can't break 700usd on a median monthly chart then there is a good chance that we won't break ATH on this bull-run, and we will have to get another very long correction before we can finally break ATH. If 700usd breaks then we could go all the way to 1500-4900usd.
For BTC I think this is actually likely near the bottom. The amount of momentum that pump yesterday had was pretty unreal. We smashed through some 2 week fractals so there is a very good chance this is the start of a very long uptrend. My plan is to get very long on the quarterly pullback and then hold for as long as possible. Don't want to close my trade too early and miss out on a huge amount of profits like I did with LTC
There has been way too much accumulation of LTC over this past year for it just to get pounded to the ground now, IMO. Something big is brewing, and will probably manifest itself around August.
"Another big thing to note is that when Aspect 1 of the Rule of Neutrality is taken into account, this is a direct hit on the Wave 4 time-fib. That is a very good indicator that this is Wave 4 and we are likely to begin Wave 5. We can only hope that it is an extension because if it is not, we most likely will get a 5th wave failure, which means it could be another couple of years before we break ATH. If this is an extended 5th then the Moon's the Limit. To confirm a Wave 5 extension (or possibly invalidate this Wave 4 and replace it with a Wave 2) we must break 0.0225 on this Median Monthly chart. At that point Wave 3 is no longer an extension so it only leaves us with either a Wave 5 extension, or a brand new impulse. " Quoted from above.
Either this is a 5th wave failure, or we are in a large correction that might complete with this wave down.
Also just because I am bullish on this monthly chart doesn't mean the market is never going to stop going up on the intra-monthly charts. If you are so focused on this chart then you should only be looking at the market once a month. Otherwise you should be more focused on intra-weekly or intra-daily charts depending on how closely you want to watch this develop.
Just because we've started going up on the monthly time-frame does not mean we cannot go back and test support in the shorter timeframes.
It's too risky for me right now, I'm not trading it. Maybe i'll get in later. After that 55% clawback last week i kinda dont even want to trade it. Bitcoin is much less risky in that sense, you usually don't have to give up over half of your profits because other people got margin called.
For the most part it is pretty unclear. Eventually a better signal will come along and I'll be willing to take it. Until then I am mostly just waiting it out because it could go either way.
144cny is the target for this next rise on the 1D-3D, whereas 0.08 is the target off of this monthly (HL/2) chart. (actual wick will go alot higher than 0.08). The latter is going to take alot longer to reach and will be followed by a much larger correction.
I don't think that it is very likely that this is wave 5, although it is possible. Actually, I think that what I now have labeled as wave 5 works as a more succinct count because that wave and the last leg up are about equal in price. In both instances it follows the extension rule relatively well. In this case I think it is very likely that we are beginning a new impulsive up, with Wave 1 of (3) tending towards equality with Wave 5 of (1). I do believe that once Wave 2 completes it will be a violent explosion upwards, however, it is not 100% sure that Wave 2 is completed just yet. I believe it is very likely that Wave 2 will not complete until bitcoin completes Wave c on the monthly chart per my published BTC chart.
If what I wrote before is right and this is actually a 5th wave failure, that means LTC is about to fall into very, very low territory for at least a few years. For some reason that seems unlikely to me.