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Has Litecoin Already Reached The Major Tipping Point?

BTCE:LTCBTC   Litecoin / Bitcoin
After Completing the Preliminary Retracement Identification Analysis on LTCBTC             it appears that it may have just completed a Double Zigzag or Double Three correction. The Count I'm looking at has the peak in December 2013 as Wave v of 3. Down from there begins either a zigzag or a complex three correction, which is followed by an x wave and then another three. Since the last three has been retraced so strongly there is a very good chance that this is the end of this complex correction. The other possibility would be that this is second x-wave, however, I think due to the size and timing of this wave that is a very unlikely scenario.

Another big thing to note is that when Aspect 1 of the Rule of Neutrality is taken into account, this is a direct hit on the Wave 4 time-fib. That is a very good indicator that this is Wave 4 and we are likely to begin Wave 5. We can only hope that it is an extension because if it is not, we most likely will get a 5th wave failure, which means it could be another couple of years before we break ATH             . If this is an extended 5th then the Moon's the Limit. To confirm a Wave 5 extension (or possibly invalidate this Wave 4 and replace it with a Wave 2) we must break 0.0225 on this Median Monthly chart. At that point Wave 3 is no longer an extension so it only leaves us with either a Wave 5 extension, or a brand new impulse.

An interesting thing to note: The Monthly AO has turned green for the first time since crossing the zero line, and the AC is also green and nearing the zero line. This could be another indication that this is the end of the downtrend.

If this is a 5th wave extension, my ultimate upside target would be 0.08. If it's a 5th wave failure it could stop anywhere from 0.015-0.0225.

Now the question many of you are probably wondering... Is Bitcoin going to do the same thing? If I had to guess, I would say not yet. I think that Litecoin may actually be leading Bitcoin by 2 months. It seems very likely that bitcoin is still in Wave C of the 2nd three. The reason why is because Wave C is less than 38.2% of Wave a. That most likely indicates that we need to go down and retest 209 at a minimum before we can finally start Bitcoin's bulltrend. However, if Wave a is actually Wave w, then bitcoin will follow Litecoin and start uptrending now. I think the ultimate confirmation for that will come very soon. If bitcoin breaks 267 on this monthly median chart then we have most likely bottomed out.

For now, it definitely looks like LTCBTC             has bottomed out. These are very exciting times in crypto, a lot of alts are starting to look extremely bullish . Bitcoin could be too. Future price action will confirm that for certain, but right now the entire sector looks extremely bullish in the intermediate term. This is certainly a great time to be involved in cryptocurrency .

Good Luck Traders!
Scamcoins

Bonus Bitcoin Analysis: http://scamco.in/2015/06/26/has-litecoin-already-bottomed-out/
Thank you very much for sharing your thoughts on LTC/BTC. Since June 13th, I've increased the amount of BTC invested in LTC from 36 to 47 BTC. It could have been more but I missed a sell on the first dip we had in LTC/BTC beginning Friday, June 19th. My alarm went off early in the morning but I was too damn sleepy to get up and sell. I did not let that happen again with the dip we had on Wednesday, June 24. I entered the market on June 13th at .00822 with 36 BTC. Since then, I've increased the amount of BTC to 47 BTC.

Right now is a great time to invest time and effort into trades in LTC/BTC. This should last for well into November after the block halving the end of August. I'm expecting LTC/BTC should go to at least .0223 myself. It would be nice if it were to go to .08. THAT would be phenomenal!!!! I keep telling everyone on tradingview.com, "LTC is the place to be for the next several months in terms of volume and volatility. Lots of gains to be made there."

Thanks again for sharing. I will continue to follow your future addendum to this fantastic chart.

David
+2 Reply
Intuit PRO ProwdClown
2 years ago
Thanks for your comment. LTC is definitely the place to be in the long-term. I'm almost certain that It will make much larger percent gains than BTC. The only thing that will rival the returns LTC can produce will be other alts. Seems like the whole cryptocurrency sector is about to take-off and out of everything BTC may actually make some of the smallest gains compared to all the other altcoins without leverage.
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ProwdClown PRO Intuit
2 years ago
Sure. More than happy to comment about your thoughtful analysis. Nice to see someone do this for LTC/BTC. Not many do. I intend to trade LTC/BTC for quite some time to come. I'm hoping DRK might do a little something but hard to say. My main focus is LTC and BTC. I trade DRK a little as well. I've invested more into LTC and BTC though.

I'm investing half of my net worth into LTC, BTC, Gold and Silver. Some may think I'm crazy for doing so but I don't think so. Yes, it's a gamble, but a gamble I'm willing to take. Especially, with LTC/BTC right now. I believe we have more of a take-off with LTC than any of the other alts. The great thing is like you said, "... without leverage."
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Intuit PRO ProwdClown
2 years ago
Indeed I have nearly all my money in crypto. BTC, LTC, XRP, DASH, STR, and HZ are what I'm in right now, with a huge majority of that split between BTC and LTC on 20x/10x respectively. I'm opening more as we pump through this settlement. Very good r/r right now.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper
2 years ago
"If this is a 5th wave extension, my ultimate upside target would be 0.08"

Can you tell me where you think BTC will be at that time, so we can get an idea of how much this is in USD?

Also I don't understand how this is your upside target if, as you say, "the Moon's the limit". What exactly will that mean in fiat values please?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
At some point it is prudent to take profits. Litecoin is obviously going to have more very large corrections. The end of the Extension, if it ends at 0.08, would mean that we are going to be correct for a long time. Probably for longer than a year. It wouldn't make sense at that point to be holding on to a devaluing currency for such a long time when I could be using that money else where or making more money by shorting it. I'm not sure if BTC will follow LTCBTC exactly, and I'm not sure if LTCUSD will either. In terms of fiat you can expect that BTC will be much higher as well, anywhere from 1500-4900usd would be a good range, so LTC will be much higher too. Unfortunately the LTCUSD chart doesn't have as much data to work with so I can't really make long-term targets as easily, but it could probably go anywhere from 80-180usd
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Dude you may be a genius. We are now ripping, possibly on the Greek news that just came out. Grexit is a done deal. Hope it doesn't get sold out. There are too many bullish convergences, whether fundamental, macro-economic and technical, appearing for LTC right now. Gotta see a new ATH soon...
+1 Reply
Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
Thank you for the kind words :)

I agree, there is a LOT of indications that cryptocurrency in general is very bullish. Technical and Fundamental. A shot at ATH would not surprise me at all for not only BTC, but LTC and a handful of alts too. If you're not the day trader type buy and hold is definitely a good strategy at this point until we start getting some bearish indication on the high time-frames. Personally, I am going to try to ride the waves on a daily time-frame so I can increase gains exponentially :)

There's still the chance that this is just a bullish correction or a 5th wave failure, so it would be smart not to get too bullish, and remember that every bubble will eventually pop. If we can't break 700usd on a median monthly chart then there is a good chance that we won't break ATH on this bull-run, and we will have to get another very long correction before we can finally break ATH. If 700usd breaks then we could go all the way to 1500-4900usd.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
You mean for BTC when you talk about breaking 700 USD, right? Just making sure.

For LTC, we could reach 200 USD if BTC goes for 5000 USD.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
Indeed. that is a pretty extreme case though. I think BTC is more likely to go to around 2400 on this run, if it even manages to break 700usd.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper
2 years ago
How are you feeling about this massive pullback since yesterday? We were hangin' at 4.30 USD and now trying to break 4 bucks again.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
Looks like we're in some kind of large complex corrective pattern on the shorter time-frame. Should resume going up after it's completed.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper
2 years ago
We are munching the bears like popcorn. Love this.
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rivet.popper
2 years ago
Looks like more consolidation before an imminent pump...
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rivet.popper
2 years ago
We are KILLING the bears, Scammy. Please give us an update when you can!
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herrschmidt
2 years ago
What's you strategy on a rally like this? I've been selling the same amount of LTC (for Euro) at every major plateau, because I can't see where it will be topping out.
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Intuit PRO herrschmidt
2 years ago
I was doing pretty much the same thing as you were doing. Just taking profits as I went. I ended up closing my LTC trade right at the top before it OKC went down and it dumped. Lucky.

For BTC I think this is actually likely near the bottom. The amount of momentum that pump yesterday had was pretty unreal. We smashed through some 2 week fractals so there is a very good chance this is the start of a very long uptrend. My plan is to get very long on the quarterly pullback and then hold for as long as possible. Don't want to close my trade too early and miss out on a huge amount of profits like I did with LTC
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rivet.popper
2 years ago
Wow that was quite a slam today. Is that just a needed correction or is it the start of smth else?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
It is likely the start of a very big correction. I sold my LTC near the top right before OKC went down and price dumped. I am still waiting to buy back, although I think we may be near the bottom of the dump now. There's a good chance we get a long period of consolidation before continuing up.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Down to 4.20 USD on BFX now, so I hope this is the bottom! About 50% of a month's gains wiped out in a day. This is ridiculous.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
Maybe this is some whale's ploy to shake out weak hands and pick up cheap coins before the halving?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
I have no idea, it's still to early to tell. I took my LTC profits, there was no sense in holding through a dump like this. You should always trail a stop-loss close behind your order so you don't lose everything. Bulls got pretty exuberant on LTC so this is what tends to happen. Everyone starts to panic when they see their gains being wiped out extremely quickly which can help cause a cascade of stop-losses and margin calls.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Me, I'm holding for the Moonride, which if it follows BTC's trajectory, will come shortly after the block halving:
snapshot


There has been way too much accumulation of LTC over this past year for it just to get pounded to the ground now, IMO. Something big is brewing, and will probably manifest itself around August.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
You're totally right about the consolidation period, BTW. Now getting tighter and tighter, though lows are consistently higher on the daily. Hope that means an upswing coming soon...
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
Actually maybe it's following the downward pattern of the chart I gave you. Look for a ramp-up August 1st.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
Alright it's a dump before mewn.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
I have temporarily stopped most trading since my power supply on my computer got fried, but it looks like we could be headed under 13cny soon.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
I thought you were bullish on LTC. What's up with this dump then?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago

"Another big thing to note is that when Aspect 1 of the Rule of Neutrality is taken into account, this is a direct hit on the Wave 4 time-fib. That is a very good indicator that this is Wave 4 and we are likely to begin Wave 5. We can only hope that it is an extension because if it is not, we most likely will get a 5th wave failure, which means it could be another couple of years before we break ATH. If this is an extended 5th then the Moon's the Limit. To confirm a Wave 5 extension (or possibly invalidate this Wave 4 and replace it with a Wave 2) we must break 0.0225 on this Median Monthly chart. At that point Wave 3 is no longer an extension so it only leaves us with either a Wave 5 extension, or a brand new impulse. " Quoted from above.

Either this is a 5th wave failure, or we are in a large correction that might complete with this wave down.

Also just because I am bullish on this monthly chart doesn't mean the market is never going to stop going up on the intra-monthly charts. If you are so focused on this chart then you should only be looking at the market once a month. Otherwise you should be more focused on intra-weekly or intra-daily charts depending on how closely you want to watch this develop.

Just because we've started going up on the monthly time-frame does not mean we cannot go back and test support in the shorter timeframes.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
Here's hoping it's a big correction then. Gonna sell off some coins and hopefully pick up almost double at 2 USD if you're right.
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rivet.popper rivet.popper
2 years ago
Now back up to 4.10 USD. Still think it's going back down to 2?
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
We could, but the 4H divergence is saying that this could also be the bottom (or we are atleast near it)

It's too risky for me right now, I'm not trading it. Maybe i'll get in later. After that 55% clawback last week i kinda dont even want to trade it. Bitcoin is much less risky in that sense, you usually don't have to give up over half of your profits because other people got margin called.
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rivet.popper Intuit
2 years ago
I agree it's looking more solid. But you're also right that trading it is super dangerous. Did you see the BTC flash crash to 150 a little while ago? I wonder if LTC gets another crash so these obvious price manipulators can load up for the moonride.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
2 years ago
I saw the wick. Most likely it was a fat finger into illiquid bids or an orderbook glitch. I wasn't around to see it happen I just woke up and saw it this morning. BTCe gets wicks like that all the time though. We had one from going from like 220 to 260 just a couple months ago.

For the most part it is pretty unclear. Eventually a better signal will come along and I'll be willing to take it. Until then I am mostly just waiting it out because it could go either way.
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rivet.popper
a year ago
Are you still thinking "moon" these days for LTC? Given now the consolidation seems to be ending. And is moon still about 20 USD (0.08BTC)? I guess this will depend on where BTC goes too, and maybe the LTC block halving.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
According to this chart, moon isn't confirmed until we close above the dashed green line. Since we closed directly below it there is a good chance that we completed a 5th wave failure which means no more moon for awhile. However, we will probably be taking another shot at breaking the confirmation line very soon. We are almost certainly near the bottom of this correction, the only thing that isn't quite as clear is where we are going from here. I am still hopeful for the moon but cautious as usual.
+1 Reply
rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
Thanks for this. Is "moon" for you still only 20 USD? Just curious.
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
For LTCBTC we could still go to 0.08

Not sure on LTCUSD because there is less long-term data but just on this next rise I could see it going to either 144 or 96cny
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rivet.popper Intuit
a year ago
144 cny is about 22 usd. But if we go with your original idea of 0.08 LTCBTC, and BTC goes to 700 as you also predicted previously, then we've got about 56 usd. NICE!
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Intuit PRO rivet.popper
a year ago
Indeed. Note that 0.08 is a longer-term target than 144cny.

144cny is the target for this next rise on the 1D-3D, whereas 0.08 is the target off of this monthly (HL/2) chart. (actual wick will go alot higher than 0.08). The latter is going to take alot longer to reach and will be followed by a much larger correction.
+1 Reply
Intuit PRO
a year ago
snapshot


Revised count

I don't think that it is very likely that this is wave 5, although it is possible. Actually, I think that what I now have labeled as wave 5 works as a more succinct count because that wave and the last leg up are about equal in price. In both instances it follows the extension rule relatively well. In this case I think it is very likely that we are beginning a new impulsive up, with Wave 1 of (3) tending towards equality with Wave 5 of (1). I do believe that once Wave 2 completes it will be a violent explosion upwards, however, it is not 100% sure that Wave 2 is completed just yet. I believe it is very likely that Wave 2 will not complete until bitcoin completes Wave c on the monthly chart per my published BTC chart.

If what I wrote before is right and this is actually a 5th wave failure, that means LTC is about to fall into very, very low territory for at least a few years. For some reason that seems unlikely to me.
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AndreyDrogal Intuit
4 months ago
Hello! Do you have any idea for LTCBTC ratio now? Thanks.
Reply
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