History Says We're Likely To Fall From Here! Litecoin! (LTC)
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Litecoin! In today's analysis, we're going to be reviewing the recent history of Litecoin, to try to understand the most likely forward path, given the current market conditions. Let's get right to it!
Looking at the daily chart, I want to first draw your attention to the MACD. As you can see, there are several vertical blue trendlines on the chart. Each vertical blue trendline, corresponds to a bearish crossover that occurred on the daily MACD chart. When we look at this simple indicator, we can see that every single one of the previous daily MACD bearish crossovers has produced a decline in the market. The aforementioned declines were not always immediate. For example, after the bearish crossover of October 4th, there was a six day consolidation period that took place, before the market surged lower. However, they all produced declines nonetheless.
I've measured the declines, beginning with the top of the first candle after the crossovers and ending with the lowest point before a bullish crossover. As you can see, the declines range from 15.83% on the low end, to nearly 50% on the high end. Interestingly, two of the past three bearish MACD crossover declines were exactly 15.83%. Since that is the smallest crossover decline on this chart, history is telling us to expect a fall of at least 15.83%. Such a decline would put LTC at 27.45, which is almost exactly at the pivot low from December 27th.
In addition to the bearish MACD crossovers, we can see that price has fallen back below the 50 EMA (in orange.) The 50 EMA has been a critical moving average to watch, because it has basically been the ceiling for most of the bear market. On January 6th, we were able to close a daily candle above the 50 EMA, and a rally ensued that took us to the top of the downtrend channel. However, price failed miserably at the top of the downtrend channel, and LTC plummeted below the 50 EMA. So, what does that tell us? It tells us that the 50 EMA did not hold support at all. Therefore, until we see something else, we have to assume that it was a failed breakout above the 50 EMA. Looking at the chart, we can see that the 50 EMA is just above the current price action. So, it will likely act as resistance, if we try to rally from here, and that resistance will likely produce a decline that fulfills the bearish MACD crossover.
For the record, the average fall of the past six bearish MACD crossovers is 28%. If we were to fall 28%, it would put us very close to a double bottom with the December 14th low.
Admittedly, daily MACD crossovers don't always produce falls. For example, they can occasionally happen at exact lows. However, they have been quite accurate in the recent history of LTC. So, they're definitely worth paying attention to.
Be smart. Be nimble. Good luck trading everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Looking at the daily chart, I want to first draw your attention to the MACD. As you can see, there are several vertical blue trendlines on the chart. Each vertical blue trendline, corresponds to a bearish crossover that occurred on the daily MACD chart. When we look at this simple indicator, we can see that every single one of the previous daily MACD bearish crossovers has produced a decline in the market. The aforementioned declines were not always immediate. For example, after the bearish crossover of October 4th, there was a six day consolidation period that took place, before the market surged lower. However, they all produced declines nonetheless.
I've measured the declines, beginning with the top of the first candle after the crossovers and ending with the lowest point before a bullish crossover. As you can see, the declines range from 15.83% on the low end, to nearly 50% on the high end. Interestingly, two of the past three bearish MACD crossover declines were exactly 15.83%. Since that is the smallest crossover decline on this chart, history is telling us to expect a fall of at least 15.83%. Such a decline would put LTC at 27.45, which is almost exactly at the pivot low from December 27th.
In addition to the bearish MACD crossovers, we can see that price has fallen back below the 50 EMA (in orange.) The 50 EMA has been a critical moving average to watch, because it has basically been the ceiling for most of the bear market. On January 6th, we were able to close a daily candle above the 50 EMA, and a rally ensued that took us to the top of the downtrend channel. However, price failed miserably at the top of the downtrend channel, and LTC plummeted below the 50 EMA. So, what does that tell us? It tells us that the 50 EMA did not hold support at all. Therefore, until we see something else, we have to assume that it was a failed breakout above the 50 EMA. Looking at the chart, we can see that the 50 EMA is just above the current price action. So, it will likely act as resistance, if we try to rally from here, and that resistance will likely produce a decline that fulfills the bearish MACD crossover.
For the record, the average fall of the past six bearish MACD crossovers is 28%. If we were to fall 28%, it would put us very close to a double bottom with the December 14th low.
Admittedly, daily MACD crossovers don't always produce falls. For example, they can occasionally happen at exact lows. However, they have been quite accurate in the recent history of LTC. So, they're definitely worth paying attention to.
Be smart. Be nimble. Good luck trading everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-