jbutler7

Why I think we could go lower

COINBASE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
I'm piggybacking off of some TA from one of my favorites here, namely the one and only Magic Poop Cannon.
But he's a bit more bullish than I.

He points out that the 50 EMA has been breached. We have closed above it. That is indeed a very bullish sign. But look where I have pointed out that nearly the EXACT same thing has happened before (yellow squiggly lines-last May). Immediately after, look at my pink vertical fib timeline. Right after that the price begins to dump. Only again are we recovering. It's amazing to see how similar these two scenarios have played out.
We cross and close above the 50d EMA .
We hit the top of the purple channel.
RSI approaching overbought.
We pass through another pink vertical fib time line. (as far as I know SOMETHING will happen, doesn't necessarily mean a big fat green or red candle, but a new trend, downward continuation, or simply nothing at all).
We could be repeating and going back into the teens if this happens.

This is only a possibility. I look at the MACD and we are above the zero line which is quite bullish , and it looks like it wants more. So, this is what I think would happen if we fail to hold/go higher than these levels. Looking at the volume here is important too. All I'm saying is don't get too bullish yet. Eventually it will go higher to a new ATH , who knows when that will be. It's not safe to guess with your money. Be open to bullish and bearish scenarios.

If this kills your mojo, don't hate me :D

#notfinancialadvice.
Comment: I'll add that there looks to have been an IHS back in may JUST like the one we have right now. So, an added caution to buyers right now. Buy the breakout, not the resistance. Best play to make here.
Comment: Well, looks like this is prolly gonna happen. I'm watching the 50d EMA which is where we are currently resting immediately underneath it, acting as resistance yet once more. We are gonna need to break back above it or we're going to go below 20 easily. Eeeeaaasily. Possible scenarios:
1. The RSI was approaching oversold on the daily as we breached the 50d EMA. It has "cooled off" now, and could go back up to areas of stronger buying.
2. We continue sideways with a bit of a bearish bias, perhaps going a little lower. Right now the 50d EMA is acting somewhat as a support, only on the wrong side. However. provided we don't go too far down from here and retest the 50 EMA in the coming days/weeks, it would print a nice higher low on the chart, which leads to trend reversals.
3. mewn (not just gonna not pass up the opportunity to leave that as a possibility :D)
Comment: Interesting developments happening on today's candle. I would like to see it close above yesterday's close, it looks to be a bullish engulfing candle, and a potential push to retest the 50d EMA. The MACD could be winding up again for another cross, and RSI possibly winding up too.
To compare this with last may, we dropped from 182 to 133 (27%), and it took 3 green candles to match the previous red candle before diving further. Today (after falling about the same 28%) we have a potential bullish engulfing candle (unimpressive volume, however this is always open to change). If history is any indicator then this small rally will mean little and I'll see you at 15$ in 2-3 weeks. However, there is a rising interest now in accumulation, which leads to FOMOing. We are significantly lower than back in may so past results do not always determine future performance, we should only use it with a grain of salt, and determining supports and resistances. More time in bear control only means we are closer to a bullish overtake.
I'll end this update with this: We are only looking at a daily chart. Zooming out to a weekly TF makes me feel quite a bit more bullish just looking at the MACD alone. We're barely above the zero line with the trend in favor of the bulls, and lots of room for momentum to grow.
Peace and hair grease friends :)
Comment: Made a new chart regarding recent thoughts on LTC action:
Thanks for the rebound. It is going to be interesting since both were sitting atop of iHS to see if the price holds this go around. I'm trying to remember the news in May 2018.
+1 Reply
jbutler7 jmgardner
@jmgardner, I don't remember any specific news. I just look at the similarities in price action and indicators from then and now. Some drastic similarities for sure. But there are differences too...
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