tl93

WARNING: 1W chart (Don't say I didn't warn you)

COINBASE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
The chart every trader winces at, and you can see why. It's *horrifying*. Looking at the chart we can see that a clear 5-count impulse Elliot wave has played out, and we now appear to be in the first leg of corrective wave. Money flow indicator ( CMF ) is signaling sell, RSI is crashing after bearish divergence from the run up to $100, Stoch RSI is nosediving. There is literally nothing bullish about this chart. It makes me sick, *but* we must acknowledge it. To ignore it does us no good. It is also important to remember that a correction is not the end of LTC, in fact just the opposite - it is *essential* to the future growth of it, in order to attract more investors.

Looking at the chart, I have overlaid Fibonacci retracement levels (using $4.09 as pre-boom price, and $98.28 as ATH ). Interestingly enough, if we look at the Elliot impulse wave; we can see that waves 2 and 4 ended closed on the 0.382 and 0.236 levels nearly perfectly - letting us know that these will be key support areas to be tested in the corrective wave. Currently we are resting around the 50% retracement level, since this is not a Fibonacci retracement level I consider this more psychological than technical. I suspect that we will have a weekly candle that closes on or around the support at $40.69, which will be followed by a decent rally. This rally will attempt to jump back onto the long-term trend line that has been in place since the beginning of the 2017 boom. Additionally, the market will attempt to retest resistance at the 0.618 retracement level, but will likely see a pull back towards the support at $24.73 - which correlates to the 0.236 retracement level. This will complete the ABC corrective wave, allowing LTC to lift-off to new ATHs.

Don't mistake my outlook on this chart as a reflection of my feelings towards LTC. I am very pro-LTC, but technicals are what they are. I hodl a fair stack of LTC (no where near whale status) so if this proves to be wrong, I wont be disappointed.
Comment: Although there as been some bullish momentum as this week kicks off, albeit lackluster and unconvincing, this pattern is still very much valid. If bulls are unable to pick up strength the bears will cause the price to retest lower supports (which get further away, %-wise, as the price continues up (though mostly sideways).
Comment: Pattern still valid. Watching closely for a retest of support around ~$50.

Comments

Is this TA still in play?
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t_dooly jreddit83
@jreddit83, In my personal opinion yes. It's just general enough that unless we break the .786 retrace it'll be in the ballpark. I don't know about 26$, but we held strong at ~45$. Price has a history, and we've just started our price search for the long term. volume hints at something as well, maybe we just need to see what news on the btc fork might cause.
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If this turns around at mid-60s, damn man, you called it big time...
Reply
tl93 julio9061
@julio9061, We've made the turn, now let's see if we correct lower or bounce off of support.
+2 Reply
@tl93, Is it too early to say that it is in fact following your pattern? Jesus, that was on point, although I do wonder if it is possible to go that low
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@tl93, Also, the LTCBTC ratio is so low, it's hard to believe and sad to see. I was seeing comments on the 0.01 floor being a good support, and that (over several months) the patten resembled that of a H&S, and I wonder how low it might go now that the 0.01 level has been broken by far. Assuming LTC stays at around 52-55 and BTC goes all the way up to 10,000 by the time of the fork, that would be like 0.005. Any thoughts?
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Still feeling this will hold true? Downward momentum seems slower than initially expected. Sunday perhaps?
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So you think it will go up today or will the correction start now?
Reply
tl93 wgf7250
@wgf7250, Well the correction is already very much underway. However,Zone Ibelieve we need to have a closing weekly candle on that first support line around $40.69 before we see a push towards the resistance near $60.
+2 Reply
tl93 tl93
@tl93, forgive the typos. I'm working off mobile.
Reply
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