LTC/USD Pivotal Point around $198 USD

COINBASE:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
Last week we saw some substantial dips and bounces with Litecoin. Towards the latter part of the week I mentioned there was a potential inverse Head & Shoulders pattern forming on the 4 hr , and it completed on Sunday. (See the small inverse Head & Shoulders inside the large inverse Head & Shoulders ). In earlier TA, I failed to show the "new" downtrend channel which has been forming since the Litecoin Cash fork and LitePay credit card adoption fail (pink downtrend lines).

Fortunately, the small inverse head & shoulders formed, albeit at lower levels and at different Elliott wave points from prior TA. So now we're at what appears to be a pivotal point for Litecoin. In order to clear the "new" downtrend channel , we need to clear $198. When you zoom out to 3 month/4 hr chart, you can see that there is potentially a long term Head & Shoulders pattern which will take until late March to complete. In this potential pattern, we are trying to complete the Head section, and we will need to see a rise to the 230 range before a drop to start formation of the right shoulder. If this pattern plays out, the much anticipated turnaround could turn out great for longs and HODLers in April, and this would be consistent with many crypto advocates who have predicted strong gains in 2018 despite the FUD over the past 2-3 months. The market could use this to bring in new money, FOMO buying, and sorely missed moon & Lambo memes.

Now, back to the pink downtrend channels. Again, $198 appears to be pivotal. If LTC doesn't clear $198, Then hold on to your hats and expect another large dip consistent with the downtrends over the past 3 months. If this occurs...and follows the channel, we could see a dip back down to the $150 range. IMO , keep some FIAT ready, and be patient...and watch for consolidation and market decisions around $175 (top/resistance line of Elliott wave # 1 on ATH run in Dec) and $165 (The .618 Fib line from Dec ATH ).

Note: I'm by no means an expert, so this is just an opinion and an effort to let the charts help in my decisions. Do your own research and trade at your own risk. I've been blessed by coins in the $50's due to luck and bit by coins in the low $300's due to greed. Philosophically, I believe in the potential of crypto becoming a viable decentralized world currency with some form of centralized regulation like a world exchange. I like to think and hope a new wave of investment is on the horizon, mainstream adoption as a functional currency in the retail environment is going to fall into place, and the giant corporate or government entities don't figure out to how get control by manipulating the market and buying up cheap coins from recent risk takers (within the last year). Good luck to all.

Trade active: Well, we didn't clear $198 on Sunday...and it appears Wall St and the Commodities whales have taken over this morning and sold early in the day; essentially keeping us in the downtrend channel. Currently trading around 178, could cautiously pick up a few here knowing the $175 support line is nearby, but save some fiat in case it continues down to the bottom of the channel

The day is young, so not sure what the US big boys will do throughout the afternoon. The .618 Fib sits around $165 and the bottom of the channel is 148-150 range. If short term history serves us well, will be buying the dips, HODLing for the bounces back to the top of the channel (around 180 at this point) and watching closely with hopes of the H&S pattern playing out or selling for the next dip.

Again, just an idea. Trade at your own risk.
Comment: Edit. Typo error. Top of the channel is closer to 190 range, not 180.
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