Will Trading Litecoin be THIS EASY with USD ????
Making an ultra long timeframe analysis on LTC/USD here:
Lets face it. Other than Bitcoin if there is one coin that has responded favorably after every halving, its been Litecoin. While it's performance with respect to BTC has been a mess, there is a certain degree of confidence that you get looking at the LTCUSD chart.
That makes me ask one question to all you Litecoin haters: if LTCBTC is underperforming, why dont you trade LTCUSD on a modest leverage given what the USD chart looks like??
We are now consolidating around the "top edge of the cloud" like we did last time. A move towards new all time highs should be a high conviction trade......and with all high conviction trades you can trade with a larger than usual position size or on leverage. FOR THE BEARS: I expect this region to be the bottom during the bear market so this region is VERY IMPORTANT. Remember Litecoin did go to the mid 20s in the last bear cycle, breaking below its 2013 BTC bubble top high.
Other features of the chart are pretty self explanatory. Here are my explanation of price targets:
1. I compared two bull runs for BTC (2011 - 2013 and 2013-2017) and found that the top-to-top price appreciation was 5000% followed by 2000% , a 60% degradation. I scaled LTCUSD's returns accordingly and found that LTC's top should be somewhere between 1200-1500 USD. I would start getting ready to sell IF and WHEN price approaches the 1000 USD level.
2. Its never easy to exit completely but do take profits above 1000 USD. You can let a part of your stash ride if LTC goes higher. The target should be at the top of the long term channel in this case.
The channel here is a highly bullish case and hence unrealistic. Remember even for BTC, we started seeing a Sqrt/log channel forming over the long term. Hence scenario 1 is more realistic.
Additional features: the time differences between the events are similar which is fascinating. Nothing happens in the market which such regularity over long time frames. This analysis still leaves some questions:
1. Will BTC top be in Dec 2021-Jan 2020 AGAIN??
2. For LTC, we are near the May 2017 level according to the USD chart and March-April 2017 level according to the LTC/BTC chart I published earlier this month. Where are we exactly? we dont know. Safe bet: if you buy LTC/BTC at these levels, exit 50% at 2x, 50% of remaining at 3x and exit completely at 4x from here.
Lets face it. Other than Bitcoin if there is one coin that has responded favorably after every halving, its been Litecoin. While it's performance with respect to BTC has been a mess, there is a certain degree of confidence that you get looking at the LTCUSD chart.
That makes me ask one question to all you Litecoin haters: if LTCBTC is underperforming, why dont you trade LTCUSD on a modest leverage given what the USD chart looks like??
We are now consolidating around the "top edge of the cloud" like we did last time. A move towards new all time highs should be a high conviction trade......and with all high conviction trades you can trade with a larger than usual position size or on leverage. FOR THE BEARS: I expect this region to be the bottom during the bear market so this region is VERY IMPORTANT. Remember Litecoin did go to the mid 20s in the last bear cycle, breaking below its 2013 BTC bubble top high.
Other features of the chart are pretty self explanatory. Here are my explanation of price targets:
1. I compared two bull runs for BTC (2011 - 2013 and 2013-2017) and found that the top-to-top price appreciation was 5000% followed by 2000% , a 60% degradation. I scaled LTCUSD's returns accordingly and found that LTC's top should be somewhere between 1200-1500 USD. I would start getting ready to sell IF and WHEN price approaches the 1000 USD level.
2. Its never easy to exit completely but do take profits above 1000 USD. You can let a part of your stash ride if LTC goes higher. The target should be at the top of the long term channel in this case.
The channel here is a highly bullish case and hence unrealistic. Remember even for BTC, we started seeing a Sqrt/log channel forming over the long term. Hence scenario 1 is more realistic.
Additional features: the time differences between the events are similar which is fascinating. Nothing happens in the market which such regularity over long time frames. This analysis still leaves some questions:
1. Will BTC top be in Dec 2021-Jan 2020 AGAIN??
2. For LTC, we are near the May 2017 level according to the USD chart and March-April 2017 level according to the LTC/BTC chart I published earlier this month. Where are we exactly? we dont know. Safe bet: if you buy LTC/BTC at these levels, exit 50% at 2x, 50% of remaining at 3x and exit completely at 4x from here.
Comment:
Few fundamentals to consider: Mimble Wimble implementation, Grayscale keeps buying LTC. LTC is one of the most liquid cryptos out there and fund managers gravitate towards assets with good liquidity over the ones that are thinly traded.
Comment:
We are close on exiting the consolidation zone. Remember to place bids just above these levels to catch knives during bear market. Happy trading!
