Last night, I was studying the movement of the in LTC. I noticed that the bands are currently extremely contracted. So, I started to look back through the band width to understand the impact that these constrictions had on previous price action. It's common knowledge that band contraction is typically followed by a band expansion. However, that can occur with price rising OR falling. Interestingly, the only other time (during the bear market) that the Width was this low, was just before our major fall from $49. As we all know, that move corresponded to BTC's fall from 6000 to 3000. With that said, let's take a look at the pattern on the chart.
First, I would like to draw your attention to the Width chart on the bottom. You can see that in August, there was a high peak, then a lower peak in September that didn't reach the , followed by a third peak in October, and then a very low number, representing a tight constriction of the .
Then, we saw a nearly perfect replication of expansion and contraction in the , between November and present day. Now, let's take a look at the chart to understand how this translates in price action.
From the left side of the chart, price fell from the top of the , in a linear drop to the bottom of the channel. Then, we saw a throwback peak, that was produced below the midline of the . From there, price rallied into Peak 1, then fell into a trough below the midline of the channel. Next, we saw a second peak, near the top of the channel. After that, price fell into an extended sideways consolidation. This is what caused the severe contraction. Then, after that consolidation, we had the constriction of the bands, and as you can see on the chart, that is where we are currently in the cycle.
In the midst of that band contraction in November, we rallied off of the bottom band, through the midline of the bands, and all the way up to the top of the channel. Then, price produced another linear decline, straight to the bottom of the channel. You can see by the text bubbles on the chart, that the price action was nearly identical.
Currently, we are experiencing the greatest band contraction since before the bull market even started. As I always warn when presenting patterns, they don't last forever. Eventually, they break down and deviate. However, they are infinitely valuable market guides while they last.
At the moment, we can see that price is beginning to rally off of the bottom of the , just as it did during the last constriction. So, it appears as though the pattern is continuing. That means that in the coming days, we could see a rally higher, possibly to the top of the channel, followed by a complete collapse that takes us below 10 dollars. I looked back at the price action before the bull market, and I found a high that was made in January of 2017, at six dollars, that aligns with the area of the where price could eventually touch. I think this is very interesting, because of the recent hype on the Hyperwave Theory. Personally, I think Hyperwave is just an over-glorified version of a regular market cycle, but it may have more merit than I am currently giving it. Regardless, a fall to six dollars, would equal a fall to support on the high that existed just before the bull market began. If we held that level, it would complete the Hyperwave in Litecoin, and we would potentially see higher highs in the future, should another Hyperwave occur. I would love to read your thoughts on Hyperwave in the comment section. Anyway, that's my case for six dollar Litecoin, and eleven-hundred dollar Bitcoin . FYI, the same high in January 2017 for Bitcoin was in the 1100 area. Anyway, we could be in for a major fall, before real panic and despair set in.
Be smart. Be nimble. Good luck trading everyone!
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***