Litecoin Chart Masterpiece! One More Major Decline! (LTC) =D
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Litecoin! Before we get into the chart, I have to admit that I don't always look at the logorhythmic scale, unless I'm trying to assess the long-term view of an asset from another angle. With that said, I've been reviewing the Litecoin log chart, and I've noticed some interesting similarities to the current price action. So, without further ado, let's get right to it.
Here on the LTC daily log chart, you can see that there's a lot going on. So, let's assess the chart from left to right. Coming in from the left side of the chart, LTC ran up to what was then an all time high, in late November of 2013. From there, a bear market cycle ensued, causing a death cross of the 200 EMA (in purple) and the 50 EMA (in orange.) Next, we can see that LTC failed on multiple occasions to get back above the 50 EMA. Eventually, price became pinched between the resistance of the 50 EMA, and the heavy support provided by the $3.15 level. This is very similar to where we are now. Continuing on, LTC could not get above the 50 EMA, and it inevitably collapsed below the powerful $3.15 support level (Breakdown.) Litecoin fell a whopping 64.52% on that breakdown, which was ultimately the final flush in the bear market cycle.
I have the Jan 2015 low marked as an aggressive byuy area, because it was a capitulation low that aggressive buyers could have capitalized on. Unfortunately, that was not the technical signal, that the bear market had ended. As you can see, the 50 EMA continued to provide powerful overhead resistance until May of 2015. In May, you can see that LTC was finally able to rally above the 50 EMA. Additionally, it fell back down, returning to the top of the 50 EMA, adn it repeatedly confirmed the 50 as new support (Technical Buy Signal,) before skyrocketing higher.
Also note that (on the MACD) the 2015 bear market showed a similar bullish divergence to what we see today. However, the May breakdown still occurred, in spite of that bullish divergence.
Fast forward to the current market cycle, and you can see that LTC made a new all time high, had a death cross, couldn't get above the 50 EMA, and is now pinched between the 50 EMA and powerful support at the $50 level. I think it goes without saying, that if we see a breakdown below $50, we could certainly get a panic selloff, much like what was seen in 2015. A similar fall of 65% would put us down around $17.50. Coincidentally, there is actually a decent amount of support there. So, if we do see a breakdown below $50, I will be looking at the $20-$18 level for a long term entry, especially on a capitulation reversal. As the market progresses, I would add heavily on a breakout and subsequent confirmation above the 50 EMA. That is the REAL buy signal, that we should all be looking for.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Here on the LTC daily log chart, you can see that there's a lot going on. So, let's assess the chart from left to right. Coming in from the left side of the chart, LTC ran up to what was then an all time high, in late November of 2013. From there, a bear market cycle ensued, causing a death cross of the 200 EMA (in purple) and the 50 EMA (in orange.) Next, we can see that LTC failed on multiple occasions to get back above the 50 EMA. Eventually, price became pinched between the resistance of the 50 EMA, and the heavy support provided by the $3.15 level. This is very similar to where we are now. Continuing on, LTC could not get above the 50 EMA, and it inevitably collapsed below the powerful $3.15 support level (Breakdown.) Litecoin fell a whopping 64.52% on that breakdown, which was ultimately the final flush in the bear market cycle.
I have the Jan 2015 low marked as an aggressive byuy area, because it was a capitulation low that aggressive buyers could have capitalized on. Unfortunately, that was not the technical signal, that the bear market had ended. As you can see, the 50 EMA continued to provide powerful overhead resistance until May of 2015. In May, you can see that LTC was finally able to rally above the 50 EMA. Additionally, it fell back down, returning to the top of the 50 EMA, adn it repeatedly confirmed the 50 as new support (Technical Buy Signal,) before skyrocketing higher.
Also note that (on the MACD) the 2015 bear market showed a similar bullish divergence to what we see today. However, the May breakdown still occurred, in spite of that bullish divergence.
Fast forward to the current market cycle, and you can see that LTC made a new all time high, had a death cross, couldn't get above the 50 EMA, and is now pinched between the 50 EMA and powerful support at the $50 level. I think it goes without saying, that if we see a breakdown below $50, we could certainly get a panic selloff, much like what was seen in 2015. A similar fall of 65% would put us down around $17.50. Coincidentally, there is actually a decent amount of support there. So, if we do see a breakdown below $50, I will be looking at the $20-$18 level for a long term entry, especially on a capitulation reversal. As the market progresses, I would add heavily on a breakout and subsequent confirmation above the 50 EMA. That is the REAL buy signal, that we should all be looking for.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Comment:
For the record, this is a speculative view into the future, based on price patterns from the past. I will not utilize this as an actionable trading strategy, unless the breakdown below $50 actually materializes.
Comment:
Comment:
So, I just realized that I made a big mistake in my analysis. I was comparing my view of LTC to BTC, and I realized that it didn't comply with what I'm seeing on the BTC chart. BTC looks like it's bottoming. Flat out. It looks like it wants to form a rounded bowl type structure, and begin heading higher sometime soon. However, that didn't line up with my view on LTC. So, I went back to the LTC chart, and I realized that i had copied the red arrow percentage from one part of the chart to the other. Since this is a logarithmic scale, you have to drag the arrow. So, when I dragged the arrow over, to see how far LTC would have to fall to match up with the breakdown in 2015 (red arrow,) it would be equal to a very small decline at these levels — somewhere around $48. So, that suggests that a breakdown would be extremely shallow, if it even occurs. That also suggests that we're bottoming right now. Personally, I am very interested in buying the market right now, but I would like to see some signs of life first. Particularly, a hold above the 50 EMA. Sorry for the mistake everyone. Good luck trading.