LTC... still teetering

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
In my last post (LTC: FIbonacci levels are in play Apr 30) I noted that LTC has shown no clear direction up or down but that a recent pattern of price movement does not bode well. I think this is still the case. For context please note that you are looking at  candlesticks , each representing one day in a chart whose scope is just over 2 months. From the chart we can see 4 (highlighted by yellow ellipticals) instances where Fibonacci levels served as support; but were subsequently broken to the downside, and six in light blue which have served as resistance. I am concerned we will break below 106 and am not sure if this will happen.

LTCs price behavior, like may coins, may depend on that of Bitcoin . I think Bitcoin (and this Litecoin) may be forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern which started in late March. I am basing this observation based on 6-hour candelesticks (not visible in my chart above though it loosely shows a potential H&S ). As noted in the chart we must see an extension past the .786 (138) currently serving as resistance per the fifth yellow elliptical.  Volume  on any such move will also be important because per 5 downward sloping magenta lines at the bottom of the chart we have seen decreases in  volume  leading to decreases in price and I'm concerned this pattern may repeat itself. The start of Fibonacci (106) has held as we did not dip below 109 in the most recent dip and I'm hoping it will hold in the near future as well. 

Even if we extend past the .786 we could still be below the 200 day moving average. Within the current levels as long as we don't dip below 106 an argument can be made for being neutral but the coins position is simply to precarious at the moment for me to be anything but short. Also note the 50 day MA is converging towards the 200 at the point of the sad face thus I see no evidence of upside in the near term. Long term, and potentially in as little as under a month this bear market could be over and we will be headed up but the technicals have to show us evidence of that. If you find this info useful please give this post a thumbs up. Lastly I want to emphasize the importance of studying contrarian views to your own. If you are long any given coin study short opinions and vice-versa, also be flexible and willing to change your mind, be like water.
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