MagicPoopCannon

The Man, The Myth, The Legend, Slightly Bullish! LITECOIN! (LTC)

BITFINEX:LTCUSD   Litecoin / U.S. Dollar
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Litecoin! WOW! As you can see, LTC dropped to the $107 handle, slightly above the $105 target, and has bounced nicely! It's currently printing a bullish engulfing hammer candle, and you can see that the MACD is starting to round to the upside. Additionally, we can see that buy-side volume is surpassing the red volume on the chart, signaling strong buyer involvement. Perhaps this is the move, that brings a close to the bear market. I actually took my first long position in a while at $108.50. I do realize, however, that there is a lot of work that needs to be done. We have a lot of overhead resistance, and technically, the bears are still in control. We can't technically confirm that a trend reversal has occurred, until the top of the downtrend channel is surpassed, and we start to print some higher highs and lows. As you know, I always say "never try to catch a falling knife." However, there is a strong reaction off of my long awaited downside target, and, personally, I was willing to go long there. With that said, I do have an exit strategy. If LTC takes out my $105 target, I'm out. Furthermore, as gains begin to accumulate, I will probably bring my stop level higher. You can see that the current bullish engulfing candle is running into the bottom of the last bear flag . It's catching a bit of resistance there, which is expected. We now need to watch closely, to see how LTC reacts to these overhead resistance levels. Ideally, I'd like to see some strong follow through to the upside, to take us up to test the bottom of the downtrend channel . Watch this action very carefully, because if LTC begins to head lower, it would take out my target level, and turn to test the bottom of the downtrend channel . Good luck to you all!


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***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

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-JD-
Comment: Warning: This analysis is HIGHLY CONDITIONAL! If we lose the $105 handle, further downside is very likely. Good luck friends!
Comment: Update! Be careful with bullish positions! It looks like today's bounce could fail. Be very careful, and watch the $105 level. If that gets broken, LTC and the rest of the crypto space could experience another wave of selling. Be very careful right here!
This analysis doesn't make sense on several levels. On the one hand, your TA on another chart suggests BTCUSD to go lower but you're taking a long position in LTC. If BTC dips to $5500-$6k as many see as a >50% probability, LTCUSD will follow in a major way as we saw a dip of around 37% for LTCUSD versus about 25% for BTCUSD in the most recent carnage. This tight correlation ALWAYS happens due to arbitrage (with the exception of Zcash due to a pumpy article by one of their investors claiming it will go to some ridiculous price). It's also why alts tend to follow a big gain in BTC. See for example when LTCBTC was trading around 0.0055 BTC in early December and then skyrocketed to 0.02 BTC. We're now only at 0.0147 BTC, so relatively speaking still on the upper part of the trading range. If you expect BTC to go lower and LTC to follow, then it makes more sense to be selling LTC to BTC (or fiat) and looking for an opportunity to buy back into BTC (and LTC) after the expected dip in BTC for a more durable "long" position. At this point you're telling people to do one thing with BTC and another with LTC that conflicts. It makes absolutely no sense for you to take a long position in LTC while screaming at the top of your lungs for people to exit BTC as it makes its way towards $6k or lower.

Ultimately, since we all still measure our gains in fiat you probably want to have a large fiat position relative to crypto and stagger long BTC entries based on risk/reward at those entry levels. Or just day trade the huge swings with 50-80% of your portfolio and make money like that to offset the volatility of hodling the rest.
+8 Reply
dregos powderpc
@powderpc, exactly!
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josephtse powderpc
@powderpc, Poopoo, BUSTED! I think Poo here is just taking a speculative quick wave 4 move up position to scalp like 10%, knowing full well there are layers of overhead restance keeping upside limited, but at the same time the bounce was at a confluence of 200dma support, oversold levels, and enfulfing green candle on huge volume. In otherwords, he played the dead cat bounce. As did I. As did a ton of people here. I think we deserve an update on the start of the big wave 5 down though. I'm guessing it starts Tuesday, after SEC and CFTC get together to scrutinize the crypto world and start making some regulations? Saturdays are usually really big pump days too, so this thing could fly to 10,000 quick before a final selloff.
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powderpc josephtse
@josephtse, well of course buying that dip was a great trade, but I wouldn't ascribe it to any TA or push for it as a "long" position as he/she has done here. I would add that the LTCBTC chart was showing a very clear bull flag and instead of breaking up it broke out down so you really need to balance out the whole TA mumbo jumbo with basic understanding of how sentiment and trading psychology are moving markets, the need for portfolio management strategies, probability based order size strategies, and also how Bitcoin arbitrage drives highly correlated price movements and that hunting for BTC pairs at relatively low price levels can be far more profitable than simply trading fiat pair price action.
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I think this is the earliest in the day I've seen you post a chart. I thought you slept till noon XD
No judgement, only observation!
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Man, I have to tell you you are one of the best analysts on the Tradingview.com. Just wanted to tell you.
+15 Reply
Hulksbits apribytkovsky
@apribytkovsky, Yeah, agreed. And we follow. A magic poop cannon.
+2 Reply
Is there a centralized place that tracks if major exchanges are accepting new customers for crypto? I know a lot of the big exchanges weren't taking new customers as their staff was overwhelmed. Not sure how much this situation has changed.
+2 Reply
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