Pennant consolidation pattern develops

See notes on chart. Price/volume action confirms the current pattern analysis. We had a massive volume spike to the upside in the flagpole validating the start of the pattern and when the pennant breaks to the upside on heavy volume, the trade can be made to the upside target noted. Which is about a 10% move. As always wait for the confirmation signal. Using Williams %R(9) should allow us to determine some form of overbought/oversold relationship during the consolidation. A higher risk entry could be at an oversold reading and a lower pennant boundary touch on very low volume, as it might suggest the sellers are gone, but the lower risk entry is a continuation of the prior trend. Look for volume on up days toward the end of the pattern to be higher than on down days as this could give clues to the sentiment. As always trade responsibly and this doesn't constitute advice, just my opinion.
Good trading,

Comment:

Be Patient...

Comment:

At the bottom of what I think is the last cycle down before the breakout. Here is not the time for a low risk trade, but if you were so inclined, with a wide stop-loss you could enter here. I prefer the breakout above the pennant and so will wait, as there hasn't been too much confirming volume as of yet.
Good luck

Comment:

This thing is hanging on by the skin of her yoga tight pants. Not a low risk entry day as fundamentals across the markets slowly deteriorate. As long as there isn't a definitive break away from the pennant, we will consider this trade idea still active, but not entered into yet.

Comment:

This is a pretty definitive break of the pennant pattern, price has descended through the kumo, but the CMF(40) is still bullish and the WPR(9) is approaching oversold. If this pennant is going to hold up, then the price action is going to have to fight through the kumo again, which if it does would be a very bullish sign. Make or break time in the coming days.

Comment:

This is coming very close to being one and done. If this falls much further the trade idea will be nullified. Will keep posted.

Comment:

We got through the selling squall and are now seeing the pattern play out to the end. WPR(9) is approaching overbought again, so beware the possibility of a final pullback. Patience is a virtue

Trade active:

I am cautious about entering here, but will enter with a quarter unit and add to it on the breakout.
Stop loss @ 62.50 (just under the doji). Open market order long (current price=64.22).
Best of luck

Comment:

Friday was the tenkan-sen turned up and today's volume was the highest since 5/16 and on a strong up candle. I think this confirms the thesis and now warrants a potential take profit target should the pennant be breached tomorrow, our initial target is 71.94 over 10% away with a stop at 62.50 potentially yielding a 4.5 : 1 reward:risk ratio

Comment:

I have some concerns about Lululemon founder Chip Wilson's comments last night, and his confession he's made a fortune in their competitors stock. This reports earnings on the 14th and could get real hairy. Expecting trade to become more volatile as we approach earnings news. I am not paring down my position, but tightening my stop loss to 66.65

Comment:

moving stop liss to just under last low @ 67.00 Keeping at least 4.3% gain

Comment:

Now that earnings are reporting today, keeping a 1/2 stop @ 67 and I am inclined to place a 1/2 position trailing stop under the low of the day @ close, if it is higher than 67 keeping 10¢ below the lows until the target price is reached @ 71.94.

Trade closed: target reached:

Yup, trade closed as planned at the high of the day @71.95 1¢ above target.
12% gain 12 days. I am happy