Hello friends.
Dopamine junkie lottery ticket chasers do not have a long attention span. Once they buy a coin, what are their options?
They have one. One option. Sell. The only real factor is WHEN they sell.
What are the odds they sell any given lottery ticket coin if it does nothing but fall for a week? 2 weeks? 3 weeks?
We will illustrate it with the Optimism Scam Coin, which also had a similar hype cycle where retail gamblers purchased coins for $2.00+ at the peak and we shorted it.
1 week from the top: the price fell down 34%, as many of the extremely low-end attention span gamblers sold out to find a new lottery ticket. This selling is also stronger because holders may panic sell when the price starts going down initially
2 weeks from the top: the price fell down only 20% since the medium attention span gamblers still needed to sell. It fell slower since there are fewer medium attention span gamblers than there are short attention span gamblers
3 weeks from the top: the price fell only 2% because almost all of the gamblers had sold by now
This chart shows us that within 3 weeks, gamblers have likely become bored with an asset and sold.
23 days into the decline, the OP token formed a short-term bottom because so many gamblers had sold that there weren't many left to sell it lower. The price bounced up 50% in a short 14-day period and many of the gamblers who had sold decided to buy back. Now that there were fresh sheep for the slaughter, the price went lower quite quickly.
LUNC did not greatly deviate from this structure. In the first week alone, the price fell by 58%, as many of the low attention span gamblers either got bored or panicked. The second week was only a lackluster consolidation move where price did nothing at all. Then we had a news event that there was a "Red Notice" to locate and arrest Do Kwon, the creator of this scam coin. This caused some more of the holders to panic sell. The market manipulators who know this burn doesn't matter are going to use this event to sell off as many LUNC coins as possible before it's too late and the gamblers start selling.
Because of this news event, many "fresh" gamblers have bought into the scam. Since they just now bought, their attention span clock is reset. As we have demonstrated, this means that at first, we will have a very strong and momentous selloff as the low attention span ones sell-off, and then we will have an increasingly slow and boring decline as the clingy cultists throw in the towel one by one.
The title is misleading. We don't need to finish them. They will finish themselves. We couldn't stop this if we wanted to. All we can do is watch.
This chart reminds us of a great quote from Margin Call.
“You know, the feeling that people experience when they stand on the edge like this isn't the fear of falling; it's the fear that they might jump."
Dopamine junkie lottery ticket chasers do not have a long attention span. Once they buy a coin, what are their options?
They have one. One option. Sell. The only real factor is WHEN they sell.
What are the odds they sell any given lottery ticket coin if it does nothing but fall for a week? 2 weeks? 3 weeks?
We will illustrate it with the Optimism Scam Coin, which also had a similar hype cycle where retail gamblers purchased coins for $2.00+ at the peak and we shorted it.
1 week from the top: the price fell down 34%, as many of the extremely low-end attention span gamblers sold out to find a new lottery ticket. This selling is also stronger because holders may panic sell when the price starts going down initially
2 weeks from the top: the price fell down only 20% since the medium attention span gamblers still needed to sell. It fell slower since there are fewer medium attention span gamblers than there are short attention span gamblers
3 weeks from the top: the price fell only 2% because almost all of the gamblers had sold by now
This chart shows us that within 3 weeks, gamblers have likely become bored with an asset and sold.
23 days into the decline, the OP token formed a short-term bottom because so many gamblers had sold that there weren't many left to sell it lower. The price bounced up 50% in a short 14-day period and many of the gamblers who had sold decided to buy back. Now that there were fresh sheep for the slaughter, the price went lower quite quickly.
LUNC did not greatly deviate from this structure. In the first week alone, the price fell by 58%, as many of the low attention span gamblers either got bored or panicked. The second week was only a lackluster consolidation move where price did nothing at all. Then we had a news event that there was a "Red Notice" to locate and arrest Do Kwon, the creator of this scam coin. This caused some more of the holders to panic sell. The market manipulators who know this burn doesn't matter are going to use this event to sell off as many LUNC coins as possible before it's too late and the gamblers start selling.
Because of this news event, many "fresh" gamblers have bought into the scam. Since they just now bought, their attention span clock is reset. As we have demonstrated, this means that at first, we will have a very strong and momentous selloff as the low attention span ones sell-off, and then we will have an increasingly slow and boring decline as the clingy cultists throw in the towel one by one.
The title is misleading. We don't need to finish them. They will finish themselves. We couldn't stop this if we wanted to. All we can do is watch.
This chart reminds us of a great quote from Margin Call.
“You know, the feeling that people experience when they stand on the edge like this isn't the fear of falling; it's the fear that they might jump."
Comment:
Comment:
That is where you would be for the Doge scam coin. As you can see, our theory once again holds true that the gambler sells very quickly at first, and then slow down over time. The exception, as you can see, is that when a pump happens, they start to sell much faster shortly after.