Decision time for the RUT
Let's start with the bigger picture
In the weekly time frame, last week's low may have created local support at ~1478 that bulls can fall back to without losing their lunch, but if it goes, i'd be looking at a slip into the 1430's with a dip below that opening up the flood gates into the sub 1300s. If we do slip down, but hold, it will encourage the overall bull trend to pick back up and look at resting > 1500 resists like 1535 and 1580.
In the small time frame, the early morning and into open will be key. Futures will be melting up, due to the overall longer-term bull trend, but will it hold the open? My opinion is no, but the numbers will be the deciding factor. Can the open hold 1500? If not, there will be a lot less pressure on bears and shorter-term bulls will start looking for exits as it will mean the (bull) flag started the first week of Aug is failing and could pullback all the way back to 1473, picking up momentum on the way.
On the way up, the critical levels are gonna be 1523, 1537, 1551 -- if these are taken, and hold, then it likely is game on for bulls and they can sleep well. On the flip side, on the way down 1506, 1479, and 1451 are Danger, CRITICAL, and TOAST.
Overall, in the Daily time scale, we are in a bear flag and bulls are fighting to recover some ground in the 1495 - 1523 range, so I expect most the day to range between those, all things being equal
I don't like to comment on scales lower than daily, since it gets outdated quickly, but one thing I did notice tonight was price falling shortly after the 15m made a BULLish cross on the 20/50 smas, which is tempered confirmation that this pre-market activity on Sunday night is just that, pre-market, no commitment -- low volume, no real churn/price discovery, just bulls getting positions and bears biding their time.
In the weekly time frame, last week's low may have created local support at ~1478 that bulls can fall back to without losing their lunch, but if it goes, i'd be looking at a slip into the 1430's with a dip below that opening up the flood gates into the sub 1300s. If we do slip down, but hold, it will encourage the overall bull trend to pick back up and look at resting > 1500 resists like 1535 and 1580.
In the small time frame, the early morning and into open will be key. Futures will be melting up, due to the overall longer-term bull trend, but will it hold the open? My opinion is no, but the numbers will be the deciding factor. Can the open hold 1500? If not, there will be a lot less pressure on bears and shorter-term bulls will start looking for exits as it will mean the (bull) flag started the first week of Aug is failing and could pullback all the way back to 1473, picking up momentum on the way.
On the way up, the critical levels are gonna be 1523, 1537, 1551 -- if these are taken, and hold, then it likely is game on for bulls and they can sleep well. On the flip side, on the way down 1506, 1479, and 1451 are Danger, CRITICAL, and TOAST.
Overall, in the Daily time scale, we are in a bear flag and bulls are fighting to recover some ground in the 1495 - 1523 range, so I expect most the day to range between those, all things being equal
I don't like to comment on scales lower than daily, since it gets outdated quickly, but one thing I did notice tonight was price falling shortly after the 15m made a BULLish cross on the 20/50 smas, which is tempered confirmation that this pre-market activity on Sunday night is just that, pre-market, no commitment -- low volume, no real churn/price discovery, just bulls getting positions and bears biding their time.