MARA: Second Chance

afurs1 Updated   
BATS:MARA   Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
My previous trade idea on MARA followed the accumulation of the lows below $10 when this stock was totally undervalued. I was buying to sell into the ETF news, which lined up perfectly with my BTC prediction approaching 48-50k. That trade resulted in a profit of 300% and our next opportunity is likely approaching as the Bitcoin Halving will occur in April.

Ive since sold my MARA position but I will start accumulating this stock again as price retraces.

There will be 2 BASIC indicators that I will use to predict where the bottom of this retracement will be.

1) The traditional Fibonacci retracement from the bottom of the range, to the top of the move. We will be using the Golden Pocket CC .618 as a base case and look for confluence at that level. To my expectation, this range lines up with a GAP that MARA failed to close, before rallying over 100%. My previous idea was based on the fact that GAPS must be filled once a direction is chosen. This will be no different.

2) The overall strength of the Market, in particular Bitcoin. I will be looking for a retracement on BTC to at least the $30k-$32k level, which was the previous massive range resistance, and should now be treated as support. If we break this level, we will very likely be looking at lower prices and this trade will be invalidated / look for lower prices.

I do believe that we will see a several week accumulation period in the spring, which may last in to the summer until BTC potentially begins its post halving rally in the fall / winter of 2024.

It will be important to watch the RSI on the daily time frame. If we break into new lower ranges, but the RSI fails to generate new lows, you can use this as a sign that the bottom is near.

My target will be between $12-$13.

If we do see further downside towards the previous range point of control at approx $9-$10, this would be a load the boat situation to average in.

Lets Go MARA!

Good Luck!

One small update after pulling the fixed range tool from the 2 highs, we have a POC at $10. We are currently breaking the value area high (top orange line) and I would suggest there is a higher probabilty we likely bounce off the POC (blue line).

Therefore I would say, Ideal buy zone will be between $10-$13.

Im adjusting my fixed range profile because I recently noticed that it was just 2 candles off, when identifying the Value areas for the previous range.

We are currently finding a bounce at this level, approx 15-$16 range I have marked on my charts, which is confluence for the previous range Value Area High.

I would not be surprised if we see a bounce here. Some more data on the daily time frame can indicate if the reversal is confirmed.

You can see a nice support candle right at the Value Area on the daily.

Trade active:
Nice support, lets pump it up. Ill take a temporary trade here. Looking for BTC to move to $44k first, then 46K , and if we blast past then we could see $50k which would be the top of the range CC FIB .618.

Potential for MARA to revist the golden pocket at $24 too. However, if we do dump lower, I would treat it as buying the dip opportunities.

BTC Breaking down at the moment. Looking for $37k support zone. MARA is starting to behave in a familiar way, although bitcoin is absolutely dumping, MARA does not seem too phased at the moment.

Will continue building my position again as price comes down.
Took the $15.50 Value area to $17 this morning for quick flip. Expecting a bit lower now unless we break below the Value area then we might go to fill the GAP below us around $14.

Lets see
Nice little pullback before this pump from the VAH. MARA clearly finding support.

This bitcoin move threw me off a bit as we broke below 40k.

However, it seems like BTC has now reclaimed 40k. And I cant help but the be a bit more bullish perhaps up to 43-44k as originally planned.
I also want to keep in mind the rotation for the next rally on the daily time frame. Ideally we want the momentum and RSI to show us an extreme oversold region, which we still have some downside room. I would be careful holding this one into next week, perhaps taking some profits if we do drop to lower your cost basis would be a good plan.

And keep in mind we do have resistance above us. We are seeing a slight rejection off the 0.286 fib.

Getting a rejection from our previous supply zone, flipped to resistance between $19-$20. Looking move lower continuation.
Just an overall market update. I want you guys to understand that MARA is not immune to the overall market moves. Historically, the last half of February is generally bearish. And risk stocks may see a bigger quick flush (although it might not be there for long).

There a few signs to me that point for potentially lower prices:

1) March Rate cuts by the FED have been removed and the market will need to adjust for future cuts.

2) The all time high on the SPY is approaching, there will likely be profit taking and rebalancing.

3) Bitcoin Halving approaching, where miners historically bleed.

4) We are changing holding a bearish market structure, getting a rejection and moving down into a GAP area. Remember my overall thesis, if you see a GAP, it is likely that it must be filled before the market can pick the direction it wants to move in.

Mind the Gap

CC at $24/$25 is a great take profit if you rode this one from the gap.
Be aware of the CC Fib at this exact level, and potential Gap at $27 that could be filled. Be very careful at these levels.

Gap Filled


Cant say we didn't see this coming
Looking at the price action the last few days has been insane. I do think MARA can either go one of 2 ways at this point. Either we see weakness in markets and BTC, we can clearly see a double top. Some divergences forming too.

We are also gapping up several days in a row, some might refer to this as exhaustion gaps.

If we however break a close a daily candle above $32/$33 this thing may squeeze up to the $38/$40 pivot range.

At the moment the nasdaq does seem quite weak, same with overall markets. Unless we see some strong demand pushing in the next few days, we may just see a sharp reveral as we have in the past.

When I look at this on the 4H i cant help but to see a rejection reaction at the moment.

I just wanted to share another potential idea for a long trade here. As of tonight, Feb 20 it seems like the ES and NQ markets may have potentially be finding some support and major weekly levels. It may be possible for us to see a technical bounce.

If we find support at the first gap level, and see a strong reaction there could be potential for a technical short squeeze here.

Filing the most recent GAP in confluence with the 100 MA might be a support zone.

There are 3 possible scenarios I am going to look for, and they are illustrated in my attachments below.

Firstly, if Mara can close hourly candles above $32 range, we might seem strong buy pressure as we try to flip resistance.

Secondly, we are in a downtrend after a failed swing at $30 where we see a sharp rejection. Today, we have closed below my daily level at approx. $25, this level will be relatively important. If the price gets rejected at that price point, It would make sense to expect $22.50-$21.50. Finding support here, combined with good earnings may give this stock potential to run.

However, If we continue breaking down don't panic, as these would be my lower levels for a long term swing over a multiple month time frame. These levels I would consider averaging in at $17.55 and $14. If we drop lower, I would be treating it a buy opportunity that likely wont last for too long.

If we do see this massive pump It will simply be a technical short squeeze since Marathon earnings are at the end of the month on Feb 28th, which may be promising since Bitcoin was pumping towards the end of the year, even up until now.

That being said it might be likely to drop very quickly as stop-losses get triggered on the way down. So please be careful and try not to chase it.

Moreover, There is potential we are seeing a pullback in BTC as we are still in a technical uptrend unless we break and hold below $49k. I will link another chart below showcasing the BTC price breaking a weekly candle above the CC golden pocket 0.618. If we expect a correction, it would make sense at this resistance zone now, we would need this sign of rejection within the next 4 days when the next weekly candle will open. The low to hold above and bounce is the CC low at $48,400.

My third and last variant is the break below the current trend line as well as the gap below at $13/14 which would be an amazing long term entry.

Post your comments if you have any other trade ideas that may happen in the coming days.

Hit the daily to the exact level. Will be watching this $25 range.


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