My previous trade idea on MARA followed the accumulation of the lows below $10 when this stock was totally undervalued. I was buying to sell into the ETF news, which lined up perfectly with my BTC prediction approaching 48-50k. That trade resulted in a profit of 300% and our next opportunity is likely approaching as the Bitcoin Halving will occur in April.
Ive since sold my MARA position but I will start accumulating this stock again as price retraces.
There will be 2 BASIC indicators that I will use to predict where the bottom of this retracement will be.
1) The traditional Fibonacci retracement from the bottom of the range, to the top of the move. We will be using the Golden Pocket CC .618 as a base case and look for confluence at that level. To my expectation, this range lines up with a GAP that MARA failed to close, before rallying over 100%. My previous idea was based on the fact that GAPS must be filled once a direction is chosen. This will be no different.
2) The overall strength of the Market, in particular Bitcoin. I will be looking for a retracement on BTC to at least the $30k-$32k level, which was the previous massive range resistance, and should now be treated as support. If we break this level, we will very likely be looking at lower prices and this trade will be invalidated / look for lower prices.
I do believe that we will see a several week accumulation period in the spring, which may last in to the summer until BTC potentially begins its post halving rally in the fall / winter of 2024.
It will be important to watch the RSI on the daily time frame. If we break into new lower ranges, but the RSI fails to generate new lows, you can use this as a sign that the bottom is near.
My target will be between $12-$13.
If we do see further downside towards the previous range point of control at approx $9-$10, this would be a load the boat situation to average in.
Lets Go MARA!
Good Luck!
Ive since sold my MARA position but I will start accumulating this stock again as price retraces.
There will be 2 BASIC indicators that I will use to predict where the bottom of this retracement will be.
1) The traditional Fibonacci retracement from the bottom of the range, to the top of the move. We will be using the Golden Pocket CC .618 as a base case and look for confluence at that level. To my expectation, this range lines up with a GAP that MARA failed to close, before rallying over 100%. My previous idea was based on the fact that GAPS must be filled once a direction is chosen. This will be no different.
2) The overall strength of the Market, in particular Bitcoin. I will be looking for a retracement on BTC to at least the $30k-$32k level, which was the previous massive range resistance, and should now be treated as support. If we break this level, we will very likely be looking at lower prices and this trade will be invalidated / look for lower prices.
I do believe that we will see a several week accumulation period in the spring, which may last in to the summer until BTC potentially begins its post halving rally in the fall / winter of 2024.
It will be important to watch the RSI on the daily time frame. If we break into new lower ranges, but the RSI fails to generate new lows, you can use this as a sign that the bottom is near.
My target will be between $12-$13.
If we do see further downside towards the previous range point of control at approx $9-$10, this would be a load the boat situation to average in.
Lets Go MARA!
Good Luck!
Comment:
Im adjusting my fixed range profile because I recently noticed that it was just 2 candles off, when identifying the Value areas for the previous range.
We are currently finding a bounce at this level, approx 15-$16 range I have marked on my charts, which is confluence for the previous range Value Area High.
I would not be surprised if we see a bounce here. Some more data on the daily time frame can indicate if the reversal is confirmed.
We are currently finding a bounce at this level, approx 15-$16 range I have marked on my charts, which is confluence for the previous range Value Area High.
I would not be surprised if we see a bounce here. Some more data on the daily time frame can indicate if the reversal is confirmed.
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You can see a nice support candle right at the Value Area on the daily.
Trade active:
Nice support, lets pump it up. Ill take a temporary trade here. Looking for BTC to move to $44k first, then
46K
, and if we blast past then we could see $50k which would be the top of the range CC FIB .618.
Potential for MARA to revist the golden pocket at $24 too. However, if we do dump lower, I would treat it as buying the dip opportunities.
46K
, and if we blast past then we could see $50k which would be the top of the range CC FIB .618. Potential for MARA to revist the golden pocket at $24 too. However, if we do dump lower, I would treat it as buying the dip opportunities.
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BTC Breaking down at the moment. Looking for $37k support zone. MARA is starting to behave in a familiar way, although bitcoin is absolutely dumping, MARA does not seem too phased at the moment.
Will continue building my position again as price comes down.
Will continue building my position again as price comes down.
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Took the $15.50 Value area to $17 this morning for quick flip. Expecting a bit lower now unless we break below the Value area then we might go to fill the GAP below us around $14.
Lets see
Lets see
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Nice little pullback before this pump from the VAH. MARA clearly finding support.
This bitcoin move threw me off a bit as we broke below 40k.
However, it seems like BTC has now reclaimed 40k. And I cant help but the be a bit more bullish perhaps up to 43-44k as originally planned.
This bitcoin move threw me off a bit as we broke below 40k.
However, it seems like BTC has now reclaimed 40k. And I cant help but the be a bit more bullish perhaps up to 43-44k as originally planned.
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I also want to keep in mind the rotation for the next rally on the daily time frame. Ideally we want the momentum and RSI to show us an extreme oversold region, which we still have some downside room. I would be careful holding this one into next week, perhaps taking some profits if we do drop to lower your cost basis would be a good plan.
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And keep in mind we do have resistance above us. We are seeing a slight rejection off the 0.286 fib.
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Getting a rejection from our previous supply zone, flipped to resistance between $19-$20. Looking move lower continuation.
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Just an overall market update. I want you guys to understand that MARA is not immune to the overall market moves. Historically, the last half of February is generally bearish. And risk stocks may see a bigger quick flush (although it might not be there for long).
There a few signs to me that point for potentially lower prices:
1) March Rate cuts by the FED have been removed and the market will need to adjust for future cuts.
2) The all time high on the SPY is approaching, there will likely be profit taking and rebalancing.
3) Bitcoin Halving approaching, where miners historically bleed.
4) We are changing holding a bearish market structure, getting a rejection and moving down into a GAP area. Remember my overall thesis, if you see a GAP, it is likely that it must be filled before the market can pick the direction it wants to move in.
There a few signs to me that point for potentially lower prices:
1) March Rate cuts by the FED have been removed and the market will need to adjust for future cuts.
2) The all time high on the SPY is approaching, there will likely be profit taking and rebalancing.
3) Bitcoin Halving approaching, where miners historically bleed.
4) We are changing holding a bearish market structure, getting a rejection and moving down into a GAP area. Remember my overall thesis, if you see a GAP, it is likely that it must be filled before the market can pick the direction it wants to move in.
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Mind the Gap
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CC at $24/$25 is a great take profit if you rode this one from the gap.
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Be aware of the CC Fib at this exact level, and potential Gap at $27 that could be filled. Be very careful at these levels.
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Gap Filled
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Cant say we didn't see this coming
Cant say we didn't see this coming
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Looking at the price action the last few days has been insane. I do think MARA can either go one of 2 ways at this point. Either we see weakness in markets and BTC, we can clearly see a double top. Some divergences forming too.
We are also gapping up several days in a row, some might refer to this as exhaustion gaps.
If we however break a close a daily candle above $32/$33 this thing may squeeze up to the $38/$40 pivot range.
At the moment the nasdaq does seem quite weak, same with overall markets. Unless we see some strong demand pushing in the next few days, we may just see a sharp reveral as we have in the past.
We are also gapping up several days in a row, some might refer to this as exhaustion gaps.
If we however break a close a daily candle above $32/$33 this thing may squeeze up to the $38/$40 pivot range.
At the moment the nasdaq does seem quite weak, same with overall markets. Unless we see some strong demand pushing in the next few days, we may just see a sharp reveral as we have in the past.
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When I look at this on the 4H i cant help but to see a rejection reaction at the moment.
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I just wanted to share another potential idea for a long trade here. As of tonight, Feb 20 it seems like the ES and NQ markets may have potentially be finding some support and major weekly levels. It may be possible for us to see a technical bounce.
If we find support at the first gap level, and see a strong reaction there could be potential for a technical short squeeze here.
Filing the most recent GAP in confluence with the 100 MA might be a support zone.
There are 3 possible scenarios I am going to look for, and they are illustrated in my attachments below.
Firstly, if Mara can close hourly candles above $32 range, we might seem strong buy pressure as we try to flip resistance.
Secondly, we are in a downtrend after a failed swing at $30 where we see a sharp rejection. Today, we have closed below my daily level at approx. $25, this level will be relatively important. If the price gets rejected at that price point, It would make sense to expect $22.50-$21.50. Finding support here, combined with good earnings may give this stock potential to run.
However, If we continue breaking down don't panic, as these would be my lower levels for a long term swing over a multiple month time frame. These levels I would consider averaging in at $17.55 and $14. If we drop lower, I would be treating it a buy opportunity that likely wont last for too long.
If we do see this massive pump It will simply be a technical short squeeze since Marathon earnings are at the end of the month on Feb 28th, which may be promising since Bitcoin was pumping towards the end of the year, even up until now.
That being said it might be likely to drop very quickly as stop-losses get triggered on the way down. So please be careful and try not to chase it.
Moreover, There is potential we are seeing a pullback in BTC as we are still in a technical uptrend unless we break and hold below $49k. I will link another chart below showcasing the BTC price breaking a weekly candle above the CC golden pocket 0.618. If we expect a correction, it would make sense at this resistance zone now, we would need this sign of rejection within the next 4 days when the next weekly candle will open. The low to hold above and bounce is the CC low at $48,400.
My third and last variant is the break below the current trend line as well as the gap below at $13/14 which would be an amazing long term entry.
Post your comments if you have any other trade ideas that may happen in the coming days.
If we find support at the first gap level, and see a strong reaction there could be potential for a technical short squeeze here.
Filing the most recent GAP in confluence with the 100 MA might be a support zone.
There are 3 possible scenarios I am going to look for, and they are illustrated in my attachments below.
Firstly, if Mara can close hourly candles above $32 range, we might seem strong buy pressure as we try to flip resistance.
Secondly, we are in a downtrend after a failed swing at $30 where we see a sharp rejection. Today, we have closed below my daily level at approx. $25, this level will be relatively important. If the price gets rejected at that price point, It would make sense to expect $22.50-$21.50. Finding support here, combined with good earnings may give this stock potential to run.
However, If we continue breaking down don't panic, as these would be my lower levels for a long term swing over a multiple month time frame. These levels I would consider averaging in at $17.55 and $14. If we drop lower, I would be treating it a buy opportunity that likely wont last for too long.
If we do see this massive pump It will simply be a technical short squeeze since Marathon earnings are at the end of the month on Feb 28th, which may be promising since Bitcoin was pumping towards the end of the year, even up until now.
That being said it might be likely to drop very quickly as stop-losses get triggered on the way down. So please be careful and try not to chase it.
Moreover, There is potential we are seeing a pullback in BTC as we are still in a technical uptrend unless we break and hold below $49k. I will link another chart below showcasing the BTC price breaking a weekly candle above the CC golden pocket 0.618. If we expect a correction, it would make sense at this resistance zone now, we would need this sign of rejection within the next 4 days when the next weekly candle will open. The low to hold above and bounce is the CC low at $48,400.
My third and last variant is the break below the current trend line as well as the gap below at $13/14 which would be an amazing long term entry.
Post your comments if you have any other trade ideas that may happen in the coming days.
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Hit the daily to the exact level. Will be watching this $25 range.
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As I outlined in the previous update, we held above the CC at
52K on the Bitcoin price. This was the Fibonacci retracement golden pocket from the top of the bull market to the low of the bear market.
We have since had a massive rally to $57k. Depending on what happens tomorrow, we may actually see a big move.
We absolutely blasted through $25, and do not even backtest it. If Bitcoin can hold its current price point, we may quite literally see a MARA squeeze. NY open will be important to watch as price action will be a clear tell sign.
Approx 1/3 of MARA stock is short positioned and the main level to hold will still remain as $32.
If we break above $32 tomorrow, I can honestly see MARA potentially squeeze to $38-$40, especially with good earnings.
I don't know how much higher BTC can go at this point as it too has surpassed my expectations, but what I do know is that many short positions might need to be covered.
Lets see how this plays out.
52K on the Bitcoin price. This was the Fibonacci retracement golden pocket from the top of the bull market to the low of the bear market.
We have since had a massive rally to $57k. Depending on what happens tomorrow, we may actually see a big move.
We absolutely blasted through $25, and do not even backtest it. If Bitcoin can hold its current price point, we may quite literally see a MARA squeeze. NY open will be important to watch as price action will be a clear tell sign.
Approx 1/3 of MARA stock is short positioned and the main level to hold will still remain as $32.
If we break above $32 tomorrow, I can honestly see MARA potentially squeeze to $38-$40, especially with good earnings.
I don't know how much higher BTC can go at this point as it too has surpassed my expectations, but what I do know is that many short positions might need to be covered.
Lets see how this plays out.
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Im still in a light position since Jan 22, I just added some more as Bitcoin is absolutely pumping, and it makes sense for BTC to take the high if we can close above $62k. i just don't see any further resistance.
We may have some euphoria in the market.
If MARA starts breaking down below $28/$29 I would be out.
I personally believe there is potential for this to squeeze, and so I will play this responsibly.
We may have some euphoria in the market.
If MARA starts breaking down below $28/$29 I would be out.
I personally believe there is potential for this to squeeze, and so I will play this responsibly.
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I will be honest this area is providing some huge resistance. It will be a real battle zone.
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The only thing holding MARA up right now is really just earnings potential.
BTC Has officially hit the Monthly level at $61,400 and getting some rejection.
If BTC starts freefalling MARA could be in a lot of trouble.
Let's see how today plays out.
BTC Has officially hit the Monthly level at $61,400 and getting some rejection.
If BTC starts freefalling MARA could be in a lot of trouble.
Let's see how today plays out.
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Squeeze it!!
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Users on Coinbase reporting accounts a $0. Coinbase statement released.
"Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly. Your assets are safe."
www.coindesk.com/bus...itcoin-60k-breakout/
"Our team is investigating this issue and will provide an update shortly. Your assets are safe."
www.coindesk.com/bus...itcoin-60k-breakout/
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Bitcoin off the VWAP
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This is nuts , what a time to be alive.
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Welp! The sell the news event played out. As a trader its just part of the game and
I have no problem with taking a small loss on the trade. As I mentioned before you really need to have your positions and risk tight when trading at these price levels.
That being said, I am going to take another small trade here simply because we are holding and finding support at the daily level here. Keep in mind, if you are not willing to lose 20-30% on a trade like this then don't take it, just wait for the next big move.
I already have profits secured, so for me to take a small position of 10% with a 3% risk tolerance is okay.
That being said...
I don't think BTC is done moving just yet. We are clearly holding value above the previous range value area high. We also don't have any resistance above us outside of $65k. I feel like the probability is we take a new ATH on Bitcoin first before a massive 40%-50% drop.
As some of you may know from my other ideas, I am overall bearish on the market at the moment. So whatever moves we get, please take your profits as we may just see a very sharp move to the downside after this last push.
For those curious about my buy in targets, I will be scaling back into this trade, but also watching the BTC price as I average in. I will post more updates if we do see a big correction.
Keep in mind , the halving is in April. So I do believe we have a unique time frame over the next 2 months to be patient and build a strong position that will pay you for the rest of the year moving forward. Don't trade away your portfolio and miss the best buying chance we have.
And lastly, I am thrilled to see all the comments on the idea with different perspectives on the market today. There are definitely some nice ideas down there too.
I have no problem with taking a small loss on the trade. As I mentioned before you really need to have your positions and risk tight when trading at these price levels.
That being said, I am going to take another small trade here simply because we are holding and finding support at the daily level here. Keep in mind, if you are not willing to lose 20-30% on a trade like this then don't take it, just wait for the next big move.
I already have profits secured, so for me to take a small position of 10% with a 3% risk tolerance is okay.
That being said...
I don't think BTC is done moving just yet. We are clearly holding value above the previous range value area high. We also don't have any resistance above us outside of $65k. I feel like the probability is we take a new ATH on Bitcoin first before a massive 40%-50% drop.
As some of you may know from my other ideas, I am overall bearish on the market at the moment. So whatever moves we get, please take your profits as we may just see a very sharp move to the downside after this last push.
For those curious about my buy in targets, I will be scaling back into this trade, but also watching the BTC price as I average in. I will post more updates if we do see a big correction.
Keep in mind , the halving is in April. So I do believe we have a unique time frame over the next 2 months to be patient and build a strong position that will pay you for the rest of the year moving forward. Don't trade away your portfolio and miss the best buying chance we have.
And lastly, I am thrilled to see all the comments on the idea with different perspectives on the market today. There are definitely some nice ideas down there too.
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Here is a long trade idea. Losing the daily is going to be your sign of weakness which would then be a no trade zone for me, and wait for the lower accumulation prices.
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Daily clearly showing us some support. Losing $25 for me and Im out (daily close). Today is just such a weird day, BTC near ATH and MARA down. Something seems fishy.
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Out of this trade and will not be touching this stock anymore until accumulation zones.
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Loss of the $25 daily = huge flush. Lets be patient now and watch the gaps start to fill, and prepare for our accumulation.
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Technicals.... FYI, the reason why MARA was not seeing all time high is because of the share dilution. I hate to say it, but MARA has officially dumped on us.
After seeing this, I may be open to moving more of my funds into other miners / BTC related stocks. Who knows it could always happen again. I may be looking to CLSK cleanspark as a potentially better play.
After seeing this, I may be open to moving more of my funds into other miners / BTC related stocks. Who knows it could always happen again. I may be looking to CLSK cleanspark as a potentially better play.
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MARA currently sitting around $18. My lower targets don't seem too unreasonable now do they?
Dont forget, BTC is at all time highs. What would happen if BTC had a major correction?
Don't get too excited to load up yet, as price retraces you can start dollar cost averaging in. You guys need to zoom OUT and see the bigger picture and overall trend.
Where would you risk reward be most profitable?
Keep in mind, we are now getting acceptance into the Value Area High of the previous range. What does this mean?
Simply put ,we failed to show strength above this range by holding above $20. Generally, it would make sense to assume the price can potentially retest the value area low at $7.
Now I personally don/t think we will get that low per say. But if we go back to our overall long term trend, you can see that the point of control at $10 lines up perfectly with the long term trend marked in the box.
This should be your ideal target if you want to load up for maximum potential during the bull run.
Good luck!
Dont forget, BTC is at all time highs. What would happen if BTC had a major correction?
Don't get too excited to load up yet, as price retraces you can start dollar cost averaging in. You guys need to zoom OUT and see the bigger picture and overall trend.
Where would you risk reward be most profitable?
Keep in mind, we are now getting acceptance into the Value Area High of the previous range. What does this mean?
Simply put ,we failed to show strength above this range by holding above $20. Generally, it would make sense to assume the price can potentially retest the value area low at $7.
Now I personally don/t think we will get that low per say. But if we go back to our overall long term trend, you can see that the point of control at $10 lines up perfectly with the long term trend marked in the box.
This should be your ideal target if you want to load up for maximum potential during the bull run.
Good luck!
Comment:
Since breaking down below $25, we have seen a sharp drop on MARA and the overall market in general. There is a lot of bearish news recently.
Nonetheless, My alerts are starting to trigger as we move back into my accumulation zone between $12-$13
Halving event by the end of the week, let's see what happens moving forward.
Nonetheless, My alerts are starting to trigger as we move back into my accumulation zone between $12-$13
Halving event by the end of the week, let's see what happens moving forward.
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Small update as some are asking me my thoughts. Ive nibbled on a small piece of MARA as we had been dropping to $14, but did not get the chance to disperse majority of the capital as the price was front run by $1 - $2.
Now, I will be paying attention to the $20 zone. We may potentially see a rejection here to retest the lows. If so, this would be the entry we are waiting for.
If price does happen to drop back into the support zones, I will deploy the majority of capital as planned.
Now, I will be paying attention to the $20 zone. We may potentially see a rejection here to retest the lows. If so, this would be the entry we are waiting for.
If price does happen to drop back into the support zones, I will deploy the majority of capital as planned.
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Nice rejection at the $20 with a big dump on BTC.
Starting to average in slowly here if we move lower. Only planning to deploy 20% of the planned capital here.
Starting to average in slowly here if we move lower. Only planning to deploy 20% of the planned capital here.
Therefore I would say, Ideal buy zone will be between $10-$13.